Budget Resources
Dr Susan Love
Immigration-related measures in the 2023–24 Budget are
largely continued implementations of election commitments, and also reflect the
Government’s intent to reform the migration system, as informed by the March 2023
report of the independent Review
of the Migration System (Migration Review). Several measures also reflect
a commitment in the Australian Labor Party’s (ALP’s) 2021
National Platform to ‘ensure that, where appropriate, migrants have
pathways to permanent visas and citizenship’ (p. 14). The Migration Review states
in its executive summary ‘It is not in Australia’s national interest to
maintain a large proportion of temporary entrants with no pathway to
citizenship as it undermines our democratic resilience and social cohesion’ (p.
2) and sets as one of its ‘possible reform directions’ for the Government to
‘resolve and avoid ‘permanently temporary’ migration’ (p. 9).
The migration system and pathways
to citizenship
The measure ‘Visa and migration system’
(Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: 2023–24, pp. 161–162) comprises a range
of items to continue the implementation of election commitments as well as the outcomes
of the Jobs and Skills Summit held in September 2022. This includes:
- $75.8
million over 2 years from 2023–24, plus an additional $163.2 million over 2 years
from 2022–23 returned from a savings measure related to the cancellation
of the Global Digital Platform visa processing system project, to continue
visa processing and process improvements
- $50.0
million over 4 years from 2023–24 (and $15.3 million per year ongoing) for
additional visa compliance and enforcement activities
- an
estimated $732.5 million over 5 years from 2022–23 to provide for an increase
in social security and other government payments to holders of Temporary
Protection visas (TPVs) and Safe Haven Enterprise visas (SHEVs) who are granted
a permanent Resolution of Status visa.
The Government
announced on 13 February 2023 that it would provide a pathway to permanent
residence for eligible TPV and SHEV holders through the Resolution
of Status (subclass 851) visa. The budget allocation of $732.5 million
noted above updates the ALP’s pre-election
costing (p. 9) which estimated
that the measure would have a negative impact on the underlying cash balance of
$407.0 million over the 4 years from 2022–23. For further details, see the
Parliamentary Library’s paper Resolving
the status of Temporary Protection Visa holders: a quick guide.
Another measure related to election commitments is $370.8
million over 4 years to expand the Pacific
Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme as part of the ‘Enhancing Pacific engagement’
measure (Budget paper no. 2, pp. 119–120), which builds on the ‘Enhancing
the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility scheme’ measure in the October 2022–23 Budget
(Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: October 2022–23, pp. 111–112).
The 2023–24 measure includes $168.1 million over 4 years to ‘consolidate
and insource domestic operations’ for the Department of Employment and
Workplace Relations (p. 1). An external provider, the Pacific
Labour Facility, is currently contracted to administer the scheme. Other
changes include support for workers to gain formal qualifications, additional
resources to support employers and participating countries sending workers, and
providing Medicare access to families participating in the family
accompaniment pilot.
The changes to the PALM scheme are also expected to increase
receipts by $300.0 million over 4 years from 2023–24, mostly due to additional
taxation receipts (Budget paper no. 2, pp. 119–120).
Another election commitment is covered in the receipts
measure ‘Migration – raising the Temporary Skilled Migration Income Threshold
(TSMIT)’ (Budget paper no. 2, p. 8). The TSMIT will increase from
$53,900 to $70,000 from 1 July 2023, meaning that employers seeking to sponsor
workers on Temporary
Skill Shortage visas must pay them at
least that amount. A TSMIT increase to $65,000 was
costed in the ALP’s election
commitments (p. 9) as having a positive impact of $132.1 million over 4
years from 2022–23. The 2023–24 measure revises this to a decrease in receipts
of $100.0 million over 5 years from 2022–23.
Most of the immigration-related measures will have a negative
impact on the underlying cash balance in the Budget – in particular, the ‘Visa
and migration system’ measure will cost $1.0 billion over the 5 years from
2022–23 (Budget paper no. 2, p. 161); see also the ‘Immigration policy settings
for New Zealand citizens’ measure below. However, the Government will increase
Visa Application Charges in addition to the indexation rate from 1 July 2023,
resulting in an estimated increase in receipts of $665.0 million over the 5
years from 2022–23 (Budget paper no. 2, p. 9).
Previously
announced changes to post-study work rights for the Temporary
Graduate (subclass 485) visa, enabling certain graduates to stay in Australia
for an additional 2 years following completion of their degrees, will increase net
receipts by $614.4 million over the 5 years from 2022–23, mostly due to
additional taxation receipts (Budget paper no. 2, p. 12).
Pathway to citizenship for New
Zealand citizens in Australia
The ‘Immigration policy settings for New Zealand citizens’
measure (Budget paper no. 2, p. 159) does not explicitly fulfil an
election commitment, but it reflects the ALP’s 2021
National Platform, which stated that the party would ‘consider the
permanent residency status and potential citizenship arrangements for New
Zealand citizens living in Australia under the terms of the TTTA [Trans-Tasman
Travel Arrangement]’ (p. 118).
The Government announced
on 22 April 2023 that from 1 July 2023, New Zealand citizens who have been
living in Australia on a Special Category Visa (SCV, subclass 444 – a temporary
visa) will be able to apply directly for citizenship without first becoming
permanent residents. They will still have to meet other citizenship
requirements, in particular the 4-year residency requirement.
This will remove the need for the current pathway to
permanent residence through the New
Zealand stream of the Skilled Independent (subclass 189) visa, which had
higher eligibility requirements including an income threshold.
Applications for this pathway were suspended from 10
December 2022, and the visa stream will close
permanently from 1 July 2023.
New Zealand citizens who are granted Australian citizenship
will become entitled to a range of payments and services that they cannot
access as SCV holders (see the Parliamentary Library’s quick guide New
Zealanders in Australia for the current arrangements).
Budget paper no. 2 states that the increase in new
citizens accessing government services is estimated to cost $1.3 billion over 5
years from 2022–23, but that the measure will also increase receipts by $795.0 million
over the same period (p. 159). The Portfolio budget
statements 2023–24: budget related paper no. 1.14: Social Services portfolio
notes that the forward estimates include $418.2 million in Department of
Social Services funding for this measure (primarily for social security
payments) and $543.3 million in additional National Disability Insurance Scheme
funding (pp. 24; 138).
This measure could be effected through a new instrument to
be made under subsection 5(2) of the Australian
Citizenship Act 2007.
Pathway to permanent residence for non-citizen
Indigenous Australians
The measure ‘Permanent residency and citizenship implications
of the Love and Thoms High Court case’ (Budget paper no. 2, p. 160) seeks
to resolve another issue of access
to citizenship. The measure will enable Indigenous Australians who are not
permanent residents or citizens, and who satisfy the tripartite test for
Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander status as applied by the High Court of
Australia in Love
v Commonwealth; Thoms v Commonwealth, to apply for a permanent Resolution
of Status visa (the same subclass 851 visa as is being used to provide the
pathway to permanent residence for TPV and SHEV holders).
The budget measure provides $5.5 million over 4 years from
2023–24 (and $0.2 million per year ongoing), primarily for the Departments of
Home Affairs and Social Services to support the application pathway and access
to government payments and services.
Net overseas migration and
migration planning levels
Planning
levels for permanent visas in the Migration Program are slightly reduced from
195,000 places in 2022–23 to 190,000 in 2023–24. This is higher than the 160,000
under the Morrison Government but is a return to levels set through much of the
2010s. The allocation of around 70% of the program to Skill stream places (Budget
paper no. 2, p. 10) is slightly higher than the pre-pandemic balance, as
shown in Table 1.
Table 1 Migration program
outcome by stream, 2014–15 to 2023–24
| Year |
Skill |
Family |
Child |
Special Eligibility |
Total |
% Skill |
% Family |
| 2014–15 |
127,774 |
61,085 |
0 |
238 |
189,097 |
67.6 |
32.3 |
| 2015–16 |
128,550 |
57,400 |
3,512 |
308 |
189,770 |
69.0 |
30.8 |
| 2016–17 |
123,567 |
56,220 |
3,400 |
421 |
183,608 |
68.6 |
31.2 |
| 2017–18 |
111,099 |
47,732 |
3,350 |
236 |
162,417 |
69.8 |
30.0 |
| 2018–19 |
109,713 |
47,247 |
3,248 |
115 |
160,323 |
69.8 |
30.1 |
| 2019–20 |
95,843 |
41,961 |
2,481 |
81 |
140,366 |
69.5 |
30.4 |
| 2020–21 |
79,620 |
77,372 |
3,006 |
54 |
160,052 |
50.7 |
49.3 |
| 2021–22 |
89,063 |
51,288 |
3,006 |
199 |
143,556 |
63.4 |
36.5 |
| 2022–23* |
142,400 |
52,500 |
3,000 |
100 |
195,000 |
73.1 |
26.9 |
| 2023–24* |
137,100 |
52,500 |
3,000 |
400 |
190,000 |
72.3 |
27.7 |
* Planning levels
Note 1: Includes primary and secondary applicants.
Note 2: Child visa and Special Eligibility streams are
excluded when calculating Skill/Family stream percentage of Migration Program
outcome.
Sources: Department of Home
Affairs, 2021–22 Migration Program Report, (Canberra: Department
of Home Affairs, 2022), p. 14; ‘Migration Program planning levels’, Department of Home Affairs.
Most of the reduction in the number of places comes from 3,100
fewer places in the Business
Innovation and Investment category. The Migration
Review noted that visa holders in this category made less of an economic
contribution over their lifetimes than other skilled migrants or non-migrant
Australians (pp. 60–61; 65–66).
Allocations within the Family stream of the Migration Program
remain the same as for 2022–23.
There has been much
public commentary
on the
level of net overseas migration (NOM). NOM is the difference between
arrivals to Australia and departures from Australia and includes both migrants
and Australians. Migrant arrivals to Australia are counted in NOM if they are
in Australia for a total of 12 months or more during a 16-month period.
The forecasts for NOM are produced by the Centre for Population within the Treasury,
and form part of the population parameters used in the Budget (Federal
financial relations: budget paper no. 3: 2023–24, pp. 117–118). Table 2
shows that estimates of NOM have varied over recent budgets, due to the
unpredictable effects of travel restrictions stemming from the COVID-19
pandemic.
Table 2 Net overseas
migration, for years ending 30 June
| Net
overseas migration |
2020–21 |
2021–22 |
2022–23 |
2023–24 |
2024–25 |
2025–26 |
2026–27 |
| 2022–23 Budget (March) |
-89,900 |
41,000 |
180,000 |
213,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
|
| 2022–23 Budget (October) |
-85,000* |
150,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
|
| 2023–24 Budget |
|
184,000* |
400,000 |
315,000 |
260,000 |
260,000 |
260,000 |
* Outcomes; other figures are forecasts.
Source: Australian Government,
Federal Financial Relations: Budget Paper no. 3,
Table A.5, various years: 2022–23
(p. 114); October 2022–23
(p. 108); 2023–24 (p.
118).
While NOM was negative in 2020–21, the recovery has been
more rapid than initially forecast. People who could not previously enter
Australia due to travel restrictions can now do so, reflecting a build-up in
demand which the budget papers describe as ‘a one-off catch up from the
pandemic’ (Budget strategy and outlook: budget paper no. 1: 2023–24,
p. 59). While the ‘catch up’ is expected to persist over the forward
estimates with a predicted level of 260,000 per year from 2024–25, NOM is projected
to return to the historical trend of 235,000 per year in the medium term (Budget
paper no. 3, p. 59).
NOM is not the same as the number of places available in the
permanent Migration Program. Many people granted visas in the permanent
Migration Program are already in Australia at the time of visa grant, and will
already have been counted in NOM. In the 10
years to 2021–22, an average of 60% of Skill stream visas and 44% of Family
stream visas were granted to people who had applied in Australia rather than
overseas (pp. 26–28; proportions were higher during the COVID‑19 pandemic
when travel restrictions prevented many new migrants from coming to Australia).
People in Australia who are granted permanent visas will have
entered on a temporary visa. Temporary visa holders are the largest
contributing group to NOM, and most temporary visa categories are demand-driven
(not capped). International students are the largest
group of migrant arrivals.
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