Footnotes

Chapter 2 - Future oil demand and supply

[1]        Thus methane CH₄ and ethane C₂H₆  are 'natural gas';  propane C₃H₈ and butane C₄H₁₀ may be present in natural gas mixtures and are used to make liquefied petroleum gas; the C5-12 fractions make automotive gasoline; the C14-16 fractions make diesel oil, etc.

[2]        Other gases also contribute. Methane, the principal component of natural gas, is a powerful greenhouse gas in its own right.

[3]        'The entire resource base (Total petroleum initially in place) is generally accepted to be all those quantities of petroleum contained in the subsurface...' Society of Petroleum Engineers, Glossary of Terms Used, at www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic_pf/0,,1104_3306579,00.html 
An alternative definition is that resources are reserves plus all the petroleum that may eventually become available: 'In practice resource estimates are made only for those accumulations that are seen as potentially economic at some time in the future.' This is a narrower definition of the resource. McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel' AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 12 November 1998, p. 2115.

[4]        'Oil reserves': notes to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, at http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9011008&contentId=7021601

[5]        'Oil reserves': notes to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006.

          Society of Petroleum Engineers: Petroleum Reserves Definitions at http://www.spe.org/spe/jsp/basic/0,2396,1104_12169_0,00.html  
'Probable' and 'possible' are commonly defined as - taking proved and probable reserves together: there is a 50 per cent probability that the true figure is more, and a 50 per cent probability that it is less. Taking proved, probable and possible reserves together: there is a 10 per cent probability that the true figure is more, and a 90 per cent probability that it is less. According to the SPE, 'the effect of possible future improvements in economic conditions and technological development can be expressed by allocating appropriate quantities of reserves to the probable and possible classifications'.

[6]        T.R.Klett, D.L. Gautier & T.S. Ahlbrandt, ‘An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000’, AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8 August 2005, p. 1036.

[7]        'Oil reserves': notes to BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, at http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle.do?categoryId=9009529&contentId=7017933

[8]        International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 126.

[9]        This would be expected given the definition of 'reserves' as 'known commercially viable accumulations.'

[10]      Lynch M.C., The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modelers),n.d..

[11]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 124.

[12]      Eg ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 2. Definitions are discussed in IEA, Resources to Reserves - Oil and Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 26.

[13]      It is suggested that the nonconventional oil originally in place is up to 7,000 billion barrels, of which economically recoverable reserves are about 600 billion barrels. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 95. Hirsch R. & others, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management, 2005, p. 40. ABARE, Australian Commodities  June 2006, p. 305.

[14]      As gas flows more easily than oil, a gas field can be produced at a high level for longer, but will then decline much more suddenly when the reserve is exhausted.

[15]      This phenomenon for an individual oilfield does not necessarily  imply the same for a larger region. In theory a certain rate of production from a larger region could be maintained indefinitely, providing new oilfields of the needed size could be discovered at a constant rate indefinitely. But this is not the case: the rate of discovery of new oil has been declining for many years: see paragraph 3.38. Many nations are past their peak of oil production as noted.

[16]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.

[17]      Chevron, quoting Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs, 2005, p. 30: http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/ 

[18]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil and Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 14.

[19]      For gas, which flows more easily, the recovery factor is naturally higher - about 70% - so future improvements to the recovery factor are less significant. International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil and Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 14.

[20]      BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006.

[21]      In a period of declining production a constant R/P ratio can be maintained by matching production to reserves correctly as both approach zero. In the USA in the late 20th century the R/P ratio was stable at about 10 over 20 years of mostly declining production. McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel' AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 12 November 1998, p. 2115.

[22]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, pp 31 and 41.  Primary energy consumption is the sum of end-use energy consumption and energy lost in transmission or conversion processes.

[23]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, pp 58 and 84.

[24]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 63-4 and 140.

[25]      ABARE, Australian Energy: national and state projections to 2029-2030, 2005, p. 23ff.

[26]      ABARE, Australian Energy: national and state projections to 2029-2030, 2005, p. 24.

[27]      Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the World Running Out of Oil? A review of the debate. BTRE working paper 61, 2005.

[28]      BP, Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006, pp 6 and 8. ‘Production includes crude oil, shale oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids.’ The OPEC countries are Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

[29]      1 cubic metre = 35.515 cubic feet. 6,000 cubic feet of gas = 1 barrel of oil equivalent (US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, table AR-1). By these figures natural gas production is 16 billion barrels of oil equivalent, and proven natural gas reserves are 1,065 billions barrels of oil equivalent, which is slightly less than proven oil reserves.

[30]      Year on year change in reserves is found by subtracting production and adding new discoveries and reserve growth. On BP’s figures world oil reserves were 770 billion barrels in 1985, 1,027 billion barrels in 1995, 1,194 billion barrels in 2004 and 1,200 billion barrels in 2005.

[31]      The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose steadily (with some fluctuations) from about $US35 per barrel in early 2004 to $US78 in July 2006. It then declined to $US63 in September 2006 and $US59 in early November. ABARE, Australian Commodities, vol. 13 no. 3, September 2006, p. 499. S. Kinsella (ABARE), personal communication, November 2006.

[32]      For example, P. Davies (BP), Quantifying Energy - BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, speech 14 June 2006. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 5.

[33]      ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 303ff.

[34]      In the market of economics textbooks, supply is the amount brought to market, and demand is the amount sold. Demand in this sense cannot exceed supply. In the future oil supply debate, discussion of whether supply will be adequate to meet demand implicitly means 'demand as it would be if supply was unconstrained'.

[35]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 45, 83 and 140. The reference scenario assumes no policies to curb energy demand or greenhouse gas emissions beyond what governments have committed to already: p. 59.

[36]      In the World Energy Outlook 2005 a brief relevant comment on the longer term future is: 'Using a more optimistic assumption of 3,200 billion barrels [of ultimately recoverable oil] pushes the production peak out to around 2035...non-conventional sources, including tar sands in Canada, extra-heavy oil in Venezuela and gas-to-liquids output, fill the growing gap between conventional oil production and global oil demand.' p. 140.

          A 2003 IEA report considered energy scenarios to 2050. The scenarios describe different responses to environmental concerns. All scenarios assume that 'there are sufficient fossil energy resources to meet demand in the next 50 years; whether they will actually be extracted depends on the pace and direction of technological change and on the level of environmental concern.' International Energy Agency, Energy to 2050 - scenarios for a sustainable future, 2003.

[37]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 46.

[38]      OPEC: Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Venezuela.

[39]      OECD: 23 European countries plus USA, Canada, Mexico, Australia, New Zealand, Korea and Japan.

[40]      Transition economies: 23 nations of eastern Europe and former Soviet Union.

[41]      Conventional oil: produced from underground reservoirs by wells. Non-conventional oil includes shale oil, synthetic crude and products derived from oil or tar sands and extra-heavy oil, coal- and biomass-based liquids and the output of natural gas to liquids (GTL) plants.

[42]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 63-5.

[43]      US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000, table AR-1, p. ES-1. New work for USGS 2000 considered the world except the United States. Figures for the United States were imported from previous work to give world totals.

          Note that 'with potential to be added to reserves by 2025' is not an estimate of the ultimately recoverable resource (URR). A corresponding estimate of the URR, since it would include post-2025 additions, would be higher. USGS 2000 disavowed any attempt to estimate the URR (p. IN-5). However this proviso is commonly overlooked, and its figures are quoted as though they are an estimate of the URR - including by the International Energy Agency (for example, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 126).

[44]      USGS 2000 estimates relating to future events are the output of a mathematical procedure whose inputs were the authors' expert opinions on many detailed matters, such as the likely number of undiscovered fields in a region, the likely size of undiscovered fields, etc. The mean estimate is derived from a probability distribution and is slightly greater than the P50 (50 per cent probable) estimate.

[45]      US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. ES-3 & figure ES-2.

[46]      US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Assessment 2000, figure ES-2.

[47]      Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, pp 13-16. Condensate is a light oil-like liquid produced from gas fields. 1 barrel = 158.987 litres.

[48]      Dr C. Foster, Geoscience Australia, Proof Committee Hansard, 12 May 2005, p. 4.

[49]      Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, p. 13.

[50]      Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, based on ABARE, Australian Energy - National and State Projections to 2029-30, 2005, p. 63.

[51]      Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the World Running Out of Oil? A review of the debate. BTRE working paper 61, 2005. Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, pp 82 and 137.

[52]      net self-sufficiency:  the concept of self-sufficiency is somewhat artificial in any case, as Australia both imports and exports crude oil. This is because Australian crude oil is relatively light, and cannot provide the full range of petroleum products. Australian production of crude oil, condensate and LPG  is about 95% of Australian consumption of liquid petroleum products; however over half of Australian production is exported, and over half of Australian refinery inputs is imported. ABARE, Australian Commodities, vol. 13 no. l3, September 2006, pp 507-8. Australian Institute of Petroleum, Crude Oil Pricing, at www.aip.com.au/pricing/crude.htm

[53]      Geoscience Australia, Additional information, 13 September 2006.

[54]      At 5883MJ per barrel: Geoscience Australia, Submission 12, p. 17.

[55]      ABARE, Australian Energy - national and state projections to 2029-30, report 05.9, October 2005, pp 38 and 45. ABARE, Submission 166, p. 2.

[56]      ABARE, Additional information, 27 November 2006.

[57]      Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission 176, p. 8.

[58]      Treasury  pointed out that as Australia is a net energy exporter, there may be compensation for a rising oil price if the price of substitutes which Australia exports also rises. Dr S. Kennedy, Department of the Treasury, Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 22.

Chapter 3 - ’Peak oil’ concerns about future oil supply

[1]        Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the world running out of oil - a review of the debate, working paper 61, 2005, p. 4.

[2]        Estimated recoverable reserves are 315 billion barrels of tar sands in Canada and 270 billion barrels of heavy oil in Venezuela. ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305. This may be compared with current proved reserves of conventional oil of 1,200 billion barrels.

[3]        Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d. [2006], p. 4. 'At least 3,345 barrels': see chapter 2, footnote 43.

[4]        ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 303ff. Dr J. Penm (ABARE), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 59.

[5]        For example, Campbell C.J. & Laherrere J.H, 'The End of Cheap Oil', Scientific American, March 1998, p 78. Estimates by ASPO use detailed country-specific data and assumptions (eg, extrapolating the production trend of countries already in decline) to calculate country peaks, and sum these to estimate a global peak. Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d. [2006].

[6]        Another line of argument is that oil discovery peaked in the 1960s, and production may be expected to mirror discovery after a time lag. For example Laherrere J., Forecasting Production From Discovery, May 2005, at http://www.mnforsustain.org/oil_forecasting_production_using_discovery_laherrere505.htm

[7]        US Energy Information Administration, Long Term World Oil Supply (A Resource Base/ Production Path Analysis), July 2000, slide 18, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/presentations/2000/long_term_supply/index.htm

[8]        Lynch M.C., The New Pessimism about Petroleum Resources: Debunking the Hubbert Model (and Hubbert Modellers), n.d.. Similarly: 'Estimates of declining reserves and production are incurably wrong because they treat as a quantity what is actually a dynamic process driven by growing knowledge...Because the concept of a fixed limit is wrong, the predicted famine always fails.' Adelman M.A. & Lynch M.C., 'Fixed View of Resource Limits Creates Undue Pessimism', Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 95 no. 14, 7 April 1997, p. 56.

[9]        Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 101 no. 32, 18 August 2003, editorial. Similarly: 'The total mineral in the earth is an irrelevant non-binding constraint. If expected finding-development costs exceed the expected net revenues, investment dries up and the industry disappears. Whatever is left in the ground is unknown, probably unknowable, but surely unimportant: a geological fact of no economic interest.' Adelman M.A., 'Mineral depletion with special reference to petroleum, The Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 72 no. 1, February 1990, p. 1.

[10]      McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 11, November 1998, p. 2122.

[11]      'Oil is, after all, a finite resource. The larger message in OGJ's series is that human ingenuity is not.' Oil and Gas Journal, vol. 101 no. 32, 18 August 2003, editorial.

[12]      For example:  'How rapidly will production decline after the peak?... For conventional oil, important horizons of finiteness are indeed coming into view.' Oil and Gas Journal, 18 August 2003, editorial. 'Of course, oil production must peak one day.' IEA, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140. The US Energy Information Administration has estimated dates for the peak of conventional oil for various scenarios, broadly following the 'Hubbert curve' methodology. A similar exercise by the IEA estimated a peak of conventional oil production between 2013 and 2037 depending on assumptions. See paragraph 3.79.

[13]      Calling the URR 'a dynamic variable' (Lynch) depends on defining URR as 'the amount of oil which is thought recoverable given existing technology and economics....' (emphasis added. See paragraph 2.9). In this scheme the URR is nothing more than a number, calculated today by a certain methodology, which may be different when calculated tomorrow by the same methodology (given updated data).

          The more common definition of URR seems to be 'the amount of oil which will ever be recovered' (BP). Peak oil arguments concerning the 'Hubbert curve' must define the URR in this way. This URR is a definite number which does not change over time. However it cannot be known exactly until production has ended, and there is great uncertainty in estimating it before then.

          Much of the 'economic optimist' critique of peak oil concerns probably comes down to a view that estimates of the URR (in the second sense) are so uncertain that they are not useful for planning purposes.

[14]      Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d. [2006], p. 4. US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000. 'At least 3,345 billion barrels': see chapter 2, footnote 43.

[15]      K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas Production, n.d. [2003], p. 1.

[16]      K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas Production, n.d. [2003], p. 6.

[17]      Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d. [2006], p. 3.

[18]      BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, p. 6.

[19]      US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. RG-2. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 87. World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 128.
For UNECE work see http://www.unece.org/ie/se/reserves.html 
A resume of the project is in UNECE Weekly, no.76, 12-16 July 2004, at  http://www.unece.org/highlights/unece_weekly/weekly_2004/UNECE_weekly_2004-76.pdf

[20]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 123-126.

[21]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 128-131.

[22]      Dr Nansen G. Saleri, 'Future of Global Oil Supply: Saudi Arabia', conference presentation 24 February 2004, Saudi-US Relations Information Service, at www.saudi-us-relations.org/energy/saudi-energy-saleri.html

[23]      ABARE, Australian Commodities, vol. 13 no. 3, September 2006, pp 502-3.

[24]      Porter E.D., Are We Running Out of Oil? American Petroleum Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, discussion paper 81, December 1995, p. 37.

[25]      US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. RG-10ff.

[26]      ASPO Australia, Submission 135C, pp 6-7.

[27]      K. Aleklett & C.J. Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas Production, n.d., p. 9.

[28]      US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, pp RG-12-13.

[29]      Klett T.R. & others, 'An evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 59 no. 8, August 2005, p. 1033ff. Canadian tar sands - the greatest single addition to reserves in the last decade - were excluded from this assessment.

[30]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 38.

[31]      Oil reserves have continued to increase, but this includes reserve growth, as discussed above.

[32]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 90.

[33]      Longwell H. (ExxonMobil), 'The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: past approaches, new challenges', World Energy vol. 5 no. 3, 2002, p. 103. Similarly, F. Harper (BP exploration consultant): 'Whilst some corners of the planet still remain to be explored, sufficient exploration has been carried out globally to indicate there won't be another discovery on the scale of the fields in the Middle East...[technology] will do something to defer the peak, but it's not a magic bullet.' remarks at an ASPO workshop, May 2004, at http://www.gasandoil.com/goc/features/fex42409.htm

[34]      ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 3.

[35]      ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 3. Longwell H. (ExxonMobil), 'The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: past approaches, new challenges', World Energy vol. 5 no. 3, 2002, p. 100ff. A similar picture emerges in Francis Harper (exploration consultant, BP), Ultimate Hydrocarbon Resources in the 21st Century. AAPG conference 'Oil and Gas in the 21st Century', September 1999, UK. Quoted in Illum K., Oil Based Technology and Economy - prospects for the future, Danish Board of Technology and Society of Danish Engineers, 2004, p. 62.

[36]      ASPO Ireland, Submission 10, p. 3. This assumes that reserves, once found, will be produced in a timely way: see IEA, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 39. This seems a reasonable assumption: 'There is a ready market for additional oil flows. The days of large oil companies having substantial reserves banks are largely over. This means that any substantial finds will become development projects in a very limited time, unless actively inhibited by politics or access.' Petroleum Review, January 2004, editorial.

[37]      This would be explained as rational market behaviour: there is no point spending money prematurely on exploration to add to reserves which are already ample.

[38]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, pp 97-8. World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 89-90.

[39]      This was done by a bottom-up expert assessment in which geologists made judgments about the likely number and size of undiscovered fields in 246 assessment units. US Geological Survey, World Petroleum Assessment 2000, p. AR -1ff.

[40]      Klett T.R. & others, 'An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8, August 2005, p. 1034.

[41]      Klett T.R. & others, 'An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8, August 2005, p. 1038. K. Aleklett & C.J. Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas Production, n.d., p. 9.

[42]      Aleklett K., International Energy Agency Accepts Peak Oil, n.d., at www.peakoil.net/uhdsg/weo2004/theuppsalacode.html

[43]      Klett T.R. & others, 'An Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 89 no. 8, August 2005, p. 1039. 

[44]      According to the IEA, over the last 15 years the elasticity of exploration and production expenditures to the crude oil price has averaged 0.5 - in other words, a 10% increase in the price has led to a 5% increase in exploration and production expenditure, 'boosting new discoveries.' World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 90. ABARE reports that 'capital investment and exploration activity have been rising over the past few years in response to higher oil prices.' Australian Commodities, vol. 13 no. 3, September 2006, p. 500.

[45]      Longwell H. (ExxonMobil), 'The Future of the Oil and Gas Industry: past approaches, new challenges', World Energy vol. 5 no. 3, 2002, p. 102.

[46]      ASPO, Presentation on Oil Depletion, Part 1, n.d., at http://www.oildepletion.org/roger/ASPO_info/ASPO_tutorial/tutorial_pdf-files/ASPO-1_notes.pdf

[47]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 65.

[48]      ExxonMobil, Tomorrow's Energy, 2004, p. 6.

[49]      'This process [the USGS 2000 methodology] clearly assumes some enhanced oil recovery (EOR), since enhanced oil recovery may already be assumed in the figures for proven reserves, also because the reserve growth curve, calibrated on United States data, contains the amount of EOR historically performed in that country.' International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 63.

[50]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 19 and 33-34.

[51]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 51-2.

[52]      Campbell C.J., The Imminent Peak of World Oil Production, presentation to a House of Commons All-Party Committee 7 July 1999.

[53]      F. Harper (BP exploration consultant), quoted in Quoted in Illum K., Oil Based Technology and Economy - prospects for the future, Danish Board of Technology and Society of Danish Engineers, 2004, p. 61.

[54]      Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d. [2006], p. 4.

[55]      ExxonMobil, Tomorrow's Energy, 2006, p. 5.

[56]      ABARE in 2006 reported recoverable reserves of 315 billion barrels of tar sands in Canada and 270 billion barrels of heavy oil in Venezuela: Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.

[57]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 63, 65, 73, 75, and 82. Estimated resources in place: heavy oil and bitumen 6,000 billion barrels (of which Canada 2,500 billion, Venezuela 1,500 billion); oil shale 2,600 billion (of which USA 1,600 billion). Reason for discrepancies between the numbers and the graphic is unclear. The report also says 'super-deep reservoirs... could easily reach 300 billion barrels oil equivalent': p. 73. This does not appear to be included in the graphic. 'Additional enhanced oil recovery potential' of 300 billion barrels assumes a 'conservative recovery rate increase of 5 per cent of oil in place' above that implied by the USGS 2000 methodology: p. 63.

[58]      Hubbert gave two scenarios based on higher or lower estimates of remaining resources in 1955. Production history has been reasonably close to the high estimate. McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 11, November 1998, p. 2122.

[59]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 101.

[60]      Porter E.D., Are We Running Out of Oil? American Petroleum Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, discussion paper 81, December 1995, p. 17.

[61]      The implication is that Hubbert's reasoning concerning resource scarcity was completely wrong, but purely by chance market forces later created an outcome for the USA that looked the same as his prediction. McCabe P.J., 'Energy Resources - Cornucopia or Empty Barrel', AAPG Bulletin, vol. 82 no. 11, November 1998, p. 2110. Porter E.D., Are We Running Out of Oil? American Petroleum Institute Policy Analysis and Strategic Planning Department, discussion paper 81, December 1995, p. 19.

[62]      Duncan R., 'Three world oil forecasts predict peak oil production', Oil and Gas Journal vol. 101 no. 14, 2003, pp 18-21. Hallock J.L. & others, 'Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply', Energy  29 (2004), pp 1679 and 1685. 

[63]      International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July 2006, p. 23.

[64]      The source does not say what the modelled demand growth rates were.

[65]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.

[66]      J.H.Wood, G.R.Long & D.F.Morehouse, Long Term World Oil Supply Scenarios - the future is neither as bleak or as rosy as some assert, US Energy Information Administration, 2004, pp 5-7.

[67]      International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July 2006, p. 23.

[68]      R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management, 2005, p. 69. Hallock J.L. & others, 'Forecasting the limits to the availability and diversity of global conventional oil supply', Energy  29 (2004), p. 1683. Cavallo A., 'Predicting the peak in world oil production', Natural Resources Research vol. 11 no. 3, 2002, pp 187-195.

[69]      ASPO Australia, Submission 132, p. 2.

[70]      Hirsch R., Peaking of World Oil Production - an overview, Atlantic Council workshop on Transatlantic Energy Issues, 23 October 2006, p. 11ff.

[71]      Campbell C.J., The Availability of Non-conventional Oil and Gas, n.d. [2006], p. 4.

[72]      International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July 2006, p. 23.

[73]      Gas declines differently because of its different properties.

[74]      ExxonMobil, The Lamp, 2003 no. 1. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 103. International Energy Agency, Medium Term Oil Market Report, July 2006, p. 23. ASPO Australia, Submission 135, p. 2. Chevron, quoting Worldwatch Institute, Vital Signs, 2005, p. 30: http://www.willyoujoinus.com/issues/alternatives/ 

[75]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 121. Rehaag K. (IEA), Is the World Facing a Third Oil Shock? Presentation to FVG & IBP workshop, Rio de Janeiro, 12 July 2004, p. 27.

[76]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 103. Similarly: 'By 2015, we will need to find, develop and produce a volume of new oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every 10 barrels being produced today.' ExxonMobil, The Lamp, 2003 no. 1.

[77]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 40.

[78]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p. 140.

[79]      Simmons M.R., Twilight in the Desert: the Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy, c2005. Jarrell J., 'Another Day in the Desert: A Response to the Book "Twilight in the Desert"', Geopolitics of Energy, vol. 17 no. 10, October 2005. Saudi-US Relations Information Service newsletter, 25 August 2004. Saudi Arabian oil production is currently about 11 million barrels per day: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, p.8

[80]      Petroleum Review, April 2006, editorial. It is unclear how important untabulated smaller projects are expected to be compared with the tabulated 'megaprojects'.

[81]      Skrebowski C., Megaprojects analysis explained, June 2006, at www.odac-info.org/bulletin/documents/megaprojects_explained.htm

[82]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 40.

[83]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 95. Another IEA report estimates the nonconventional resource as 2,500 billion barrels in Canada, 1,500 billion in Venezuela, and 2,600 billion in oil shale (of which 1,600 billion is in the USA): Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, pp 75 and 82. ABARE reports an estimate of shale oil resource in place of 2,900 billion barrels: Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.

[84]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 95.

[85]      ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.

[86]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 98. International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 17. ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 305.

[87]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 98-9.

[88]      Esser R., The Oil Industry Growth Challenge - expanding production capacity, testimony to US House of Representatives Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee, 7 December 2005, p. 6. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, p. 115. There is no comparable discussion in World Energy Outlook 2006 and it is unclear how Venezuelan heavy oil is accounted for in the 2006 supply projection tables (pp 92-3). It is noted that 'Most of the production of extra-heavy bituminous crude oil in Venezuela is now classified as conventional oil.' p. 97.

[89]      Aleklett K.& Campbell C.J., The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas Production, n.d., p. 14.

[90]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 78.

[91]      International Energy Agency, Resources to Reserves - Oil & Gas Technologies for the Energy Markets of the Future, 2005, p. 81.

[92]      ABARE, Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 303ff. Australian Commodities, September 2006, p. 501.

[93]      Dr J. Penm (ABARE), Proof Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 59.

[94]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, pp 63-5.

[95]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 38-9 and 60-2.

[96]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 60.

[97]      Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R.& Wendling R., Peaking of World Oil Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management.2005, p. 26. US Energy Information Administration, Annual Oil Market Chronology, at http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/AOMC/Overview.html

[98]      Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R.& Wendling R, Peaking of World Oil Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management.2005, p. 28.

[99]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 286.

[100]    ASPO Australia, Submission 132, p. 2.

[101]    CIBC [Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce] World Markets, Not Just a Spike, occasional paper 53, 13 April 2005.  At http://research.cibcwm.com/economic_public/download/occ_53.pdf
The demand figure was based on 2.5% trend growth. Capping supply at 86.8 million barrels per day appears to be based on Chris Skrebowski's megaprojects information (see paragraph 3.97 above) although this is not acknowledged. The suggested demand is more than the IEA now predicts for 2010 (which is 91.3 million barrels per day in the reference (business as usual) scenario: World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 86); while an April 2006 update of the megaprojects information predicts more short term supply growth than earlier versions. These points would ameliorate the effect on the price.

[102]    The nonconventional oils consume significant energy in mining and conversion processes to make them usable. Thus their 'well to wheels' greenhouse impact per unit of end-use energy will be significantly greater than that of conventional oil, if production does not include carbon capture and storage.

[103]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 49.

[104]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 37.

[105]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 37ff.

[106]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 73 and 162.

[107]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 167, 169, 172, 227 and 262. Carbon capture and storage is not included on the grounds that it has not been commercially demonstrated: p. 171.

[108]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 42 and 49.

[109]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 42.

[110]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 42, 193 and 204.

[111]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 186.

[112]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 249-251.

[113]    Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R.& Wendling R, Peaking of World Oil Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management, 2005, p. 6.

[114]    Hirsch, R.L. Bezdek R. & Wendling R, Peaking of World Oil Production - impacts, mitigation and risk management, 2005, pp 6-7 and 65.

[115]    IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 170.

[116]    'In the longer term, concerns also exist about the longevity of oil supplies.' The point is raised but not further discussed. Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 119. The possibility of replacement by oil from gas, coal or shale is mentioned briefly at pages 22, 41 and 124.

[117]    This involved expenditure of about $33 million over three years to deliver a package of energy efficiency measures across the residential, commercial, government and industrial sectors. See communiques of the Ministerial Council on Energy,  27 August 2004, 27 October 2006, at www.mce.gov.au

[118]    For example: initiatives to promote a target of 350 million litres of biofuels production per year by 2010; various measures in the 2004 Commonwealth Energy White Paper; recently introduced incentives to promote use of LPG. See Australian Government, Alternative Transport Fuels and Renewable Energy, August 2006 Update, at http://www.pmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/alternative_fuels.pdf

[119]    International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, pp 193 and 210-11.

[120]    Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 107.

Chapter 4 - Economic and social impacts of possible higher fuel prices and reduced oil

[1]        2005 dollars. IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 61.

[2]        The Hon. A. MacTiernan MLA, Address to sustainable transport coalition’s oil: living with less conference, 9 August 2004. Retrieved from http://www.stcwa.org.au/index.php?option=com_docman&task=cat_view&gid=13&Itemid=19 on 23 November 2006.

[3]        D. Bell, Submission 29, p. 18.

[4]        ABC Online High fuel costs boost commuter numbers 2/09/2005 retrieved from www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200509/s1451578.htm on 1/09/2006

[5]        The Council of Social Services of New South Wales, Submission  89, p.1.

[6]        D. Bell, Submission 29, p. 19.

[7]        International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 307.

[8]        ABARE, Submission  166, p. 6.

[9]        R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 27.

[10]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 299.

[11]      R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 5.

[12]      R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 28.

[13]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 301.

[14]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 301.

[15]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 298.

 

[16]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 305.

[17]      ABARE, Submission 166, p. 6.

[18]      Queensland Government, Submission  155, attachments, p. 16.

[19]      Treasury 2006-07 Budget paper no. 1, statement 4 – Australia in the world economy.

[20]      Committee Hansard, Canberra 12 May 2006, p. 9. (Dr B. Fisher, ABARE).

[21]      D. Bell, Submission 29, p. 21.

[22]      Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 22. (Mr R Campbell, ASPO).

[23]      Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission 176, p. 3.

[24]      Australian Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission 176, p. 4.

[25]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 55.

[26]      Torquay Landcare Inc, Submission 80, p. 27.

[27]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 298.

[28]      Torquay Landcare Inc, Submission 80, p. 27.

[29]      Institute for Sustainability and Technology Policy, Murdoch University, Submission 11, p. 13.

[30]      R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005, p. 25, quoting U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook  2004, April 2004.

[31]      PBB Industry Risk Bulletin July 2005 retrieved from www.ppb.com.au/webdata/resources/files/IRB_Oil_National.pdf#search=%22Industry%20Risk%20Bulletin%20%22 on 01/09/2006

[32]      M. Gutteridge, Queensland’s Oil Problem: Future Considerations for Governments, Submission  76d, p. 30.

[33]      Sustainable Transport Coalition WA, Submission  45, p. 1.

[34]      Committee Hansard, 11 April 2006, p. 7 and 8 (Mr Beveridge, Office of Industry and Innovation, University of Western Australia).

[35]      Torquay Landcare Inc, Submission 80, p.20.

[36]      Committee Hansard, 11 April 2006, p. 8 (Mr Beveridge).

[37]      Queensland Government, Submission 155, attachments, p. 18.

[38]      Queensland Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 3.

[39]      Queensland Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 4.

[40]      PBB Industry Risk Bulletin July 2005, retrieved from www.ppb.com.au/webdata/resources/files/IRB_Oil_National.pdf#search=%22Industry%20Risk%20Bulletin%20%22 on 01/09/2006

[41]      Queensland Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 6.

[42]      D. Bell, Submission 29, p. 18.

[43]      A. Parker, Submission 12, Appendix A, p. 2.

[44]      Committee Hansard, 11 April 2006, p.9 (Mr Fleay)

[45]      Torquary Landcare Inc, Submission  80, p. 22.

[46]      ASPO – Australia, Submission 136, p. 2.

[47]      J. Dodson and N. Sipe, Submission 165, attachment: Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City, 2005, p. 23. 

[48]      Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 7.

[49]      J. Dodson and N. Sipe, Shocking the Suburbs: Urban Location, Housing Debt and Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City, 2006, p. 42.

[50]      A. Parker,  Submission 12, Appendix B, p. 1.

[51]      City of Wanneroo, Submission 19, p. 2.

[52]      Council of Social Services of New South Wales, Submission 89, p. 1.

[53]      The International Association of Public Transport (Australia/New Zealand), Submission 32, p. 5.

[54]      Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 6.

[55]      Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 4.

[56]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 27. (A. S. Gooding, Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils)

[57]      Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils, Submission 43, p. 10.

[58]      The International Association of Public Transport (Australia/New Zealand), Submission 32, p. 23.

[59]      Government of Western Australia, Submission 172, p. 4.

[60]      Government of Western Australia, Submission 172, attachment, pp 2 and 3.

[61]      The Council of Social Services of New South Wales, Submission 89, p. 3.

[62]      Australian Medical Association, Submission  88, p. 1.

[63]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 186.

[64]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 3.

[65]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 40.

[66]      Australian Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p. 115.

[67]      Australian Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p. 119.

[68]      Treasury, 2006-07 Budget paper No. 1, statement 3 - The outlook for the international economy.

[69]      Treasury, 2006-07 Budget paper No. 1, statement 4 – Australia in the world economy.

[70]      Treasury, 2006-07 Budget paper No. 1, statement 4 – Australia in the world economy.

[71]      ASPO Australia, Submission  136, p. 2.

[72]      ASPO Australia, Submission 135, p. 5.

[73]      Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, 2004, p. 122.

[74]      Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, 2004, p. 124.

[75]      Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, 2004, p. 122.

[76]      A. Parker, Submission 12, Appendix A, p. 1.

[77]      Australian Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future, July 2006, Update, p. 3.

[78]      D. Bennett, Submission 40, p. 1.

[79]      ASPO Australia, Submission 193, p. 1 and p. 4.

[80]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 3.

[81]      R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management, 2005 p. 66.

[82]      ASPO Australia, Submission 135, p. 10.

[83]      Committee Hansard, 11 April 2006, p. 31. (Dr Worth, Sustainable Transport Coalition)

[84]      Australian Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p. 116.

[85]      Australian Government, Securing Australia’s Energy Future 2004, p. 121.

[86]      Treasurer's press release, G-20 Meeting, Melbourne, 18-19 November 2006, retrieved from http://www.treasurer.gov.au/tsr/content/pressreleases/2006/125.asp?pf=1 on 20 November 2006.

Chapter 5 - Supply side responses - overview and exploration

[1]        CSIRO, Submission 128 for example discusses this. Smaller countries like Australia, who are at the end of long supply lines, may be more vulnerable to supply disruptions. It is important to note that the energy white paper disagrees that this is necessary, considering security of supply to be adequate. The Australian Institute of Petroleum (AIP) agrees with this assessment – see submission.

[2]        Australian oil production is classified as light sweet crude and is of high value on the world market. Most production is exported. Further, Australian refineries require heavier crudes to produce the full range of petroleum products required in the Australian market.  

[3]        Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 2.

[4]        Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 51.

[5]        ABARE, Submission 166, p. 4.

[6]        CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 11.

[7]        Akehurt, J. 2002, World Oil Markets and the Challenges for Australia, Woodside Australia Energy, ABARE Outlook conference, 2002.

[8]        RISE, Submission 104, p. 5.

[9]        AATSE, Submission 154, p. 4. 

[10]      Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 8.

[11]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 2.

[12]      APPEA, Submission 176, p. 4.

[13]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 4.

[14]      Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to Questions taken on notice,

12 September 2006, p. 4.

[15]      APPEA, Submission 176, p. 6.

[16]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 3.

[17]      APPEA, Submission 176, p. 6.

[18]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 12.

[19]      Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 9.

[20]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 9.

[21]      Transcript of the Prime Minister's statement to Parliament on energy initiatives,
Parliament House, Canberra, 14 August 2006 and Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet website, at http://www.dpmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/exploration.rtf.

[22]      Transcript of the Prime Minister's statement to Parliament on energy initiatives,
Parliament House, Canberra, 14 August 2006 and Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet website, at http://www.dpmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/exploration.rtf.

Chapter 6 - Supply side responses - Alternative fuels from gas, coal and shale

[1]        For example, the introduction of fuel standards, and increases in the market share of LPG.

[2]        That is, refined from conventionally produced oil.

[3]        Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 134 (2002 estimate).

[4]        BTRE, Greenhouse Gas Emissions to 2020: Projected trends for Australian Transport, Information sheet 21.

[5]        Securing Australia's Energy Future, Prime Minister's foreword.

[6]        Cummins, Submission 84.

[7]        Asia-Pacific Natural Gas Vehicles Association, Submission 75.

[8]        Envestra Pty Ltd, Submission 105, attached report by Mr O. Clark AM, p. 10.

[9]        Motive Energy, Submission 64, p. 13.

[10]      Reuters news article, Natural gas cars a hit in Argentina, 9 April 2003.

[11]      Geoscience Australia, Submission 128, Table 6, p. 28.

[12]      Geoscience Australia, Submission 128, p. 32.

[13]      Chemlink Consultants, NSW, http://www.chemlink.com.au/nswchem.htm, as accessed 17 November 2006.

[14]      Keith Orchison, Abundance, ease of access make methane attractive, article in The Australian newspaper, 9 September 2006.

[15]      The coal seam gas industry has been described as 'burgeoning', and as the main driver of continuing investment in pipeline construction – Australian Pipeline Industry Association, Media release, 16 October 2006.

[16]      See for example Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74B, p. 4.

[17]      Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 45.

[18]      Envestra Pty Ltd, Submission 105, attached report by Mr O. Clark AM, p. 2.

[19]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 106.

[20]      Asia-Pacific Natural Gas Vehicles Association, Submission 75, p. 2.

[21]      Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 3.

[22]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006.

[23]      The US Federal Government offers a tax credit of $US4,000 to purchasers of such vehicles -  see www.honda.com for specifications and details.

[24]      Boral Transport Ltd, Submission 106, p. 2.

[25]      Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 7.

[26]      Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 10.

[27]      Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 9.

[28]      Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 9.

[29]      Murray Goulburn Co-operative, Submission 53, p. 9.

[30]      Boral Transport Ltd, Submission 106, p. 2.

[31]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 88.

[32]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 91.

[33]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 88.

[34]      See http://www.myphill.com/index.htm

[35]      Natural Gas Vehicles Group, Submission 119, p. 3.

[36]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 102.

[37]      Envestra Pty Ltd, Submission 105, p. 16.

[38]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 105.

[39]      Advanced Fuels Technology Pty Ltd, Submission 50, pp 6-7.

[40]      Advanced Fuels Technology Pty Ltd, Submission 50.

[41]      For a comprehensive analysis of this subject, see Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994, Chapter 7.

[42]      Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994, Chapter 7.

[43]      CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of fuels for light vehicles, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, May 2004.

[44]      CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of Alternative Fuels for heavy  vehicles, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, March 2000, p. xvii.

[45]      Department of Environment and Heritage (DEH), Submission 171, p. 3.

[46]      Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994, Chapter 7, p. 114.

[47]      From http://www.chemlink.com.au/gas.htm

[48]      Michael Gutteridge and others, Queensland's oil problem: Future considerations for Governments, in M. Gutteridge, Submission 76, p. 23.

[49]      CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 6.

[50]      Australian Liquefied Petroleum Gas Association, Media Release, 13 October 2005, p. 2.

[51]      Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to questions taken on notice, 4 September 2006.

[52]      Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, pp 33-4.

[53]      Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to questions taken on notice, 4 September 2006.

[54]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 28.

[55]      ALPGA, Submission 91, p. 5.

[56]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 28 (Mr Scoular, Ford).

[57]      Michael Gutteridge and others, Queensland's oil problem: Future considerations for Governments, in M. Gutteridge, Submission 76, p. 23.

[58]      CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 18.

[59]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 62.

[60]      Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Energy in Australia 2005.

[61]      Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Response to questions taken on notice, 12 September 2006, p. 3.

[62]      See for example Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 62.

[63]      CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of fuels for light vehicles, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, May 2004, p. 67.

[64]      CSIRO, Life-cycle Emissions Analysis of fuels for light vehicles, Report to the Australian Greenhouse Office, May 2004.

[65]      Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics, Alternative Fuels in Australian Transport, Information Paper No. 39, 1994.

[66]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 103.

[67]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 4.

[68]      See for example Chemlink Australasia, Gas to Liquids, at http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm as accessed 16 November 2006.

[69]      Catalyzing GTL, Chemical and Engineering News, Vol 81, No. 29, 21 July 2003.

[70]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 6.

[71]      The Sasol Chevron project has been withdrawn. Source:  Chemlink Australasia, at http://www.chemlink.com.au/index-info.htm, accessed 16 November 2006.

[72]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p.14.

[73]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 11.

[74]      Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.

[75]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 13.

[76]      Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 48.

[77]      Chemlink Australasia, Gas to Liquids, at http://www.chemlink.com.au/gtl.htm , accessed 16 November 2006.

[78]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 13.

[79]      CSIRO, Submission 128, p. 17.

[80]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, pp 7-8 and p. 12.

[81]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 9.

[82]      Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, Appendix B, p. 9.

[83]      Mizuho Information and Research Institute, Well-to-wheels analysis of Greenhouse Gas emissions of automotive fuels in the Japanese context, from www.mizuho-ir.co.jp/english/knowledge/wtwghg041130.html, accessed  14 November 2006.

[84]      CSIRO, response to questions taken on notice, 27 June 2006. (Appendix 3)

[85]      CSIRO, Response to questions taken on notice, 27 June 2006. (Appendix 3)

[86]      Although the Sasol plant in South Africa is the only industrial size plant in the world in operation.

[87]      For example, the Monash Energy Consortium and the Centre for Low Emission Technology, both of which made submissions and gave evidence.

[88]      Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 14.

[89]      Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 53.

[90]      Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 7.

[91]      Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.

[92]      Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.

[93]      Monash Energy, Submission 58, covering letter and p. 10.

[94]      Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 46.

[95]      Monash Energy acknowledges this – see p. 9.

[96]      CSIRO, Response to questions on notice, 27 June 2006, p. 1.

[97]      Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 9.

[98]      Monash Energy, Submission 58, p. 12.

[99]      Committee Hansard (private briefing – Monash Energy), 29 June 2006, p. 2. (Mr Cochrane, CEO)

[100]    Committee Hansard (private briefing – Monash Energy), 29 June 2006, p. 2. (Mr Cochrane, CEO)

[101]    Sleipner natural-gas platform  - CO2 separated from natural gas is re-injected.

[102]    Committee Hansard (private briefing – Monash Energy), 29 June 2006, p. 7. (Mr Cochrane, CEO)

[103]    Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 45.

[104]    Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 17.

[105]    IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 170.

[106]    Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 2.

[107]    Queensland Government, Submission 155, supporting material, p. iii.

[108]    Queensland Government, Submission 155, supporting material, p. iii.

[109]    Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 2.

[110]    Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 2.

[111]    Article entitled Cavalry Arrives to Help Stuart Project, www.rigzone.com/news/article

[112]    Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, pp 17 & 18.

[113]    Mr Lex Creemers, Submission 125, pp 2 & 3.

Chapter 7 - Supply side responses - Alternative fuels - Biofuels

[1]        Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005.

[2]        Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Government Biofuels Initiatives, at http://www.industry.gov.au/content/itrinternet/cmscontent.cfm?objectID=A9D9A207-0351-51FB-F20C287758203878, accessed 24 November 2006.

[3]        CSR Ltd, Submission 148.

[4]        Queensland Government, Submission 155, p. 7.

[5]        Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 3.

[6]        Australian Canegrowers' Council, Submission 36, p. 3.

[7]        Australian Canegrowers' Council, Submission 36, p. 8.

[8]        Committee Hansard, 12 April 2006, p. 95. (Mr DeLandgrafft)

[9]        Australian Canegrowers' Council, Submission 36, p. 2. Flexi fuel vehicles are designed to operate on a range of different ethanol blends, ranging from 0 to 85 per cent. They are available in Brazil, the United States, Sweden and the United Kingdom.

[10]      Mr Brian Fleay, Submission 74, Appendix 5.

[11]      Australian Cane Growers Council, Submission 36, p. 5.

[12]      CSR Ltd, Submission 148, p. 6.

[13]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 38.

[14]      Article published in Sydney Morning Herald, Wheat imports loom as drought bites, 15 November 2006, p. 3.

[15]      Emergent Futures, Submission 117, p. 21.

[16]      Dr Hongwei Wu and Dr Mike Ewing, Submission 179, p. 3.

[17]      ACGC, Submission 36, p. 8.

[18]      Microbiogen, Submission 92, p. 4.

[19]      Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, pp 88-9.

[20]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 15.

[21]      Two possible routes are available – fermentation or gasification.

[22]      Emergent Futures, Submission 117, p. 21.

[23]      Dr Hongwei Wu and Dr Mike Ewing, Submission 179, p. 3.

[24]      Microbiogen, Submission 92, p. 5.

[25]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 44.

[26]      http://www.iogen.ca/key-mesages/overview/m4-fuels-vehicles.html, accessed 9 November 2006.

[27]      Alan Cummine, Ethanol history being ignored at our cost, Australian Forest Grower, Autumn 2003.

[28]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 69.

[29]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, pp 1 and 69.

[30]      http://www.iogen.ca/key-mesages/overview/m4-fuels-vehicles.html, accessed 9 November 2006.

[31]      ACGC, Submission 36, pp 4-5.

[32]      ACGC, Submission 36, pp 6-9.

[33]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, conclusion 28, p. 18.

[34]      Dr Hongwei Wu and Dr Mike Ewing, Submission 179, p. 3.

[35]      Livestock Feedgrain Users Group, Submission 55, p. 3.

[36]      Livestock Feedgrain Users Group, Submission 55, p. 4.

[37]      See conclusions 29 and 30, pp 18 and 19.

[38]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 13.

[39]      Ethanol produced by distillation still contains a small percentage of water which cannot be removed in the distillation process. This must be removed before blending. Ethanol with the water removed is referred to as anhydrous ethanol.

[40]      Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 37.

[41]      Shell Australia, Submission 181, p. 14.

[42]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p1.

 

[43]      Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 4.

[44]      http://www.peugeot.com.au/PEUGEOT/AU/me.get?site.home&FFFF1765

[45]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 1.

[46]      Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 11.

[47]      Queensland Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p. 18.

[48]      See pp 13-14 of report.

[49]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, pp 39-40.

[50]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 41.

[51]      Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 41.

[52]      Quoted from para 3.78 of the Report of the Senate Economics Legislation Committee into the Fuel Tax Bill and a related bill, 14 June 2006.

[53]      Natural Fuels Australia, Submission 95, p. 1.

[54]      The committee acknowledges the possibility of producing biodiesel through gasification technology, but notes the assessment of the U.S. Energy Information Administration that biomass-to-liquids plants have high capital and operating costs, and their feedstock handling costs are especially high. Further, BTL gasifiers are significantly more expensive than those used in GTL and CTL. Source: Energy Information Administration Annual Energy Outlook 2006, p. 45. 

[55]      See for example Biodiesel Association of Australia, Submission 68, p. 4.

[56]      Biodiesel Association of Australia, Submission 68, p. 4.

[57]      Natural Fuels Australia, Submission 95, p. 2.

[58]      Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 4.

[59]      Gardner-Smith Holdings, Submission 185, p. 4.

[60]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 86.

[61]      Australian Government Biofuels Taskforce, Report of the Biofuels Taskforce to the Prime Minister, August 2005, p. 89.

 

Chapter 8 - Demand side responses

[1]        For a concise discussion of these matters see also Productivity Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, pp 239-272.

[2]        Australian Government, Securing Australia's Energy Future, Dept of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, 2004, p. 137. ABARE, Submission 166, p. 9.

[3]        BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, 2001.

[4]        This mirrors experience in the USA, where there is a mandatory corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standard for passenger cars, and a lower standard for 'light trucks' (sports utility vehicles). As the market penetration of light trucks for passenger use has grown, the fuel efficiency of the US light vehicle fleet as a whole has worsened steadily since 1988, and now stands at about 24 miles per gallon (9.8 litres per 100 km). Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World, 2004, p. 7.

[5]        International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 226.

[6]        BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, 2001.

[7]        BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, 2001. Australian Automobile Association, Submission 151, p. 10.

[8]        Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries

[9]        Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Voluntary Code of Practice - Reducing the Fuel Consumption of New Light Vehicles, 15 April 2003.

[10]      Standards are mandatory in the United States, California, China and Japan, and voluntary in the European Union, Canada and Australia. The US Corporate Average Fuel Economy standards, though mandatory, are not particularly demanding: 27.5 miles per gallon (8.5 litres per 100km) for passenger cars, and 22.2 miles per gallon (10.6 litres per 100km) from 2007 for light trucks. Pew Centre on Global Climate Change, Comparison of Passenger Vehicle Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Standards Around the World, 2004, p. 6. For more discussion and comparisons, see International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 226ff, and Productivity Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 246.

[11]      There is some evidence that the higher petrol prices of the last two years have turned consumers back towards smaller cars: Productivity Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 249. Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries, Small cars drive half yearly motor vehicle sales, media release 5 July 2006.

[12]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 55. (Mr G. McGlynn, Australian Greenhouse Office)

[13]      Australian Automobile Association, Submission 151, p. 10. Mr L. Mackintosh (AAA), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 65.

[14]      Committee Hansard, 11 August 2006, p. 55. (Mr G. McGlynn, Australian Greenhouse Office)

[15]      International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 228. Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Rebound effects - implications for transport planning, at http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm64.htm

          The Productivity Commission notes research suggesting that a 10 per cent increase in fuel efficiency leads to a 2 per cent increase in distance travelled: The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 248.

[16]      Productivity Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 248.

[17]      FCAI, Voluntary  Code of Practice – Reducing the Fuel Consumption of New Light Vehicles, 2003, clause 2.

[18]      This has been done in Queensland and Western Australia. Queensland Government, Submission 155, p. 5. Mr G. Head (WA Department for Planning and Infrastructure), Committee Hansard, 11 April 2006, pp 3-4.

[19]      SASOL Chevron, Submission 54, Appendix C.

[20]      Imported new passengers cars attract a tariff of 10 per cent; four wheel drives, 5 per cent. This anomaly will end in 2010 when the tariff on cars falls to 5 per cent.

[21]      Mr P. Robertson (DOTARS), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 9. Hon. J. Lloyd, Reva vehicle must comply with safety standards first, media release 11 October 2006.

[22]      Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Urban congestion - the implications for greenhouse gas emissions, information sheet 16, 2000.

[23]      Ministerial Council on Energy, communiqué 27 October 2006.

[24]      Department of Environment and Heritage, Submission 171, p. 7. Australian Transport Council, communiqué 2 June 2006.

[25]      Council of Australian Governments, communiqué 10 February 2006.

[26]      The external cost of an individual's ill health is publicly funded health care costs. A proportion of accident costs are internalised, and a proportion are funded by the public health system.

[27]      BTRE, Urban Congestion - the Implications for Greenhouse Gas Emissions, information sheet 16, 2000. Health Impacts of Transport Emissions in Australia: Economic Costs, working paper 63, 2005, pp 14-15.

[28]      To gain the economic benefit it is important that the charge is actually tailored to target only congested times and places. A flat rate city wide ‘road use charge’ is not a congestion charge. For further discussion see Productivity Commission, The Private Cost Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. 251ff.

[29]      Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport, report 105, 2002, p. xv.  Bureau of Transport and Communications Economics [predecessor of the BTRE], Traffic Congestion and Road User Charges in Australian Capital Cities, report 92, 1996.

[30]      For example, in response to a recent congestion charging proposal by the Royal Automobile Club of Queensland, the Queensland Transport and Main Roads Minister, Mr Lucas said, 'The Beattie government is not considering introducing congestion charging on Brisbane roads - it's a toll road by stealth.' www.theage.com.au 3 September 2006.

[31]      UK Commission for Integrated Transport, CfIT's world review of road pricing phase 1 - lessons for the UK, n.d. at http://www.cfit.gov.uk/docs/2006/wrrp1/index.htm

[32]      Committee Hansard 18 August 2006, p.78 (Mr J. Metcalfe). Willett K, (RACQ), The Truth about Brisbane's Road: Stuck in Traffic and Stuck for Solutions, 17 August 2006.

[33]      Productivity Commission, The Private Cost-Effectiveness of Improving Energy Efficiency, 2005, p. xlii, p. 257, recommendation 11.1. Government response, February 2006.

[34]      See Mayor of London's transport strategy, available at http://www.london.gov.uk/mayor/strategies/transport/index.jsp

[35]      The public transport share is usually somewhat higher in peak hours, and for travel to Central Business Districts.

[36]      Australasian Railway Association, personal communication, August 2006, based on research in progress.

[37]      Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport, report 105, 2002, p. xii.

[38]      For example, Hon. J. Watkins (NSW Minister for Transport), Public bus patronage grows by 60,000 passengers a week, media release 23 May 2006. This is a year on year increase of about 1.7 per cent.

[39]      For example, there are official goals to increase the public transport mode share from 7% to 10.5% in South East Queensland by 2011 (Transport 2007); from 9% to 20% of motorised trips (thus about 15% of all trips) in Melbourne by 2020 (Melbourne 2030); to reduce car-as-driver trips in Perth by one third by 2029 (Perth Metropolitan Transport Strategy 1995-2029); and to increase the proportion of peak hour trips by public transport to 25% in Sydney (A New Direction for NSW - State Plan, 2006).

[40]      International Association of Public Transport, Submission 32, p. 31. Prof. P. Newman, Committee Hansard, 12 April 2006, p. 43. Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 6.

[41]      Bus Industry Confederation, Submission 129, p. 16.  International Association of Public Transport, Submission 32, pp 24-5.

[42]      Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper, 2004, p. 9.

[43]      Department of Environment and Heritage/ Australian Greenhouse Office, Evaluation of Australian Travelsmart Projects, 2005, p. 5. Queensland Government, Submission 155, p. 4. See also WA Department for Planning and Infrastructure, attachment.

[44]      Mr P. Strang (Bicycle Federation of Australia), Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 89. Mr E. Fishman (Institute for Sensible Transport), Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 93.

[45]      Australian Bicycle Council, Australian Cycling - Bicycle Ownership, Use and Demographics, 2004, pp 5-7.

[46]      Austroads, The Australian National Cycling Strategy 2005-2010, 2005, p. 3.

[47]      Austroads, The Australian National Cycling Strategy 2005-2010, 2005, p. 4 and pp 14-15.

[48]      ASPO Australia Active Transport Working Group, Submission 136, p. 8.

[49]      Walking WA Committee, Submission 109, p. 4.

[50]      Monash Energy Holdings, Submission 58, p. 17. Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Greenhouse Policy Options for Transport, report 105, p. 20. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2006, p. 224.

[51]      For example, Australian Automobile Association: 'Trying to get motorists out of their cars as an option for reducing transport fuel demand is unrealistic'. Submission 151, p. 7.

[52]      Prof. P. Newman, Committee Hansard, 12 April 2006, pp 50-51.

[53]      Prof. P. Newman, Submission 11,  p. 5.

[54]      Mrs S. Fingland (Western Sydney Regional Organisation of Councils), Committee Hansard, 9 June 2006, p. 22.

[55]      Mr I. Robins (Wyndham City Council), Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 65.

[56]      Mr C. Tampion (Public Transport Users Association), Committee Hansard, 29 June 2006, p. 82.

[57]      Mr A. Honan (Railway Technical Society of Australia), Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 17.

[58]      Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 4.

[59]      For related suggestions see Alan Parker Design, Submission 12, Appendix B. Residential Environments Study Team, Submission 102, p. 3.

[60]      For an overview of transit oriented development see for example http://www.patrec.org/conferences/TODJuly2005/TODJuly2005.html which is the papers of a 2005 conference by the Western Australia Planning and Transport Research Centre (PATREC).

[61]      For example, Sydney 2005 Metropolitan Strategy calls for 60-70 per cent of new housing to be in established areas. NSW Department of Planning, City of Cities - a plan for Sydney's future - metropolitan strategy, 2005, p. 133.

[62]      For a leading Australian 'urban consolidation sceptic' see Patrick Troy, The Perils of Urban Consolidation, 1996. For an example of residents opposition see Save Our Suburbs at http://www.sos.org.au/new_home.html  See discussion in House of Representatives Standing Committee on Environment and Heritage, Sustainable Cities, 2005, p. 43.

[63]      Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 4.

[64]      Municipal Association of Victoria, Submission 124, p. 4.

[65]      Department for Planning and Infrastructure, Submission 172, attachment.

[66]      International Association of Public Transport, Submission 32, p. 31.

[67]      For example, Bus Industry Confederation, Submission 129, p. 14.

[68]      For example, if car and public transport trips are now in the ratio 9 to 1, and 10 per cent of car trips become public transport trips, this would almost double public transport use.

[69]      Rail 0.0085, road 0.0265 litres per net tonne kilometre: Bureau of Transport Economics, Competitive Neutrality Between Road and Rail, working paper 40, 1999, p. 59. Figures are for non-bulk freight on an ‘average’ interstate corridor, and allow for typical load factors. Fuel efficiency of both road and rail has probably increased since then.

[70]      A larger proportion of freight would be on routes where rail service could theoretically be provided, but would not be viable because of the overwhelming natural advantages of road service on those routes.

[71]      Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper, 2004, p. 3. Australasian Railway Association, Australian Rail Industry Report 2003, p. 9. Mr S. St Clair (Australian Trucking Association), Committee Hansard 12 May 2006, p. 85. Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Freight between Australian Cities, 1972 to 2001, information sheet 22. BTRE, Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, report 112, 2006, p. xxiii.

[72]      BTRE, Freight Measurement and Modelling in Australia, report 112, 2006, p. xxiii.

[73]      113km of the Hume Highway remains unduplicated: Department of Transport and Regional Services, Sydney-Melbourne Corridor Strategy [2006], p. 4.

[74]      Dr P. Laird, Committee Hansard, 30 June 2006, p. 81. In fact the current Sydney-Melbourne rail alignment is worse than as built in the 1870s. In the 1910s many deviations were made to obtain easier grades at the cost of sharper curves and longer overall distance. For today's faster, more powerful trains it would be better if the deviations had not been made.

[75]      Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper, June 2004, p. 62.

[76]      This is a combination of grants under Auslink funding programs; direct grants to the Australian Rail Track Corporation, which controls the main interstate routes; and the ARTC’s own investment (the ARTC is Commonwealth owned).

[77]      Australian Government, Auslink White Paper, 2004.

[78]      Mr S. St Clair (Australian Trucking Association), Proof Committee Hansard, 12 May 2006, p. 85. ATA, Submission 131, p. 23.

[79]      The 2004 Auslink White Paper in a few words flags the possible issue of ‘depletion of fossil fuel supplies before alternative energy sources are developed’ (pp 21 and 115), but makes no further comment.

[80]      Productivity Commission, Road and Rail Infrastructure Pricing, discussion draft September 2006. It is also argued that rail access charges may not recover long term asset replacement costs: BTRE, Land Transport Infrastructure Pricing: an Introduction, working paper 57, 2004, p. x.

[81]      Treasury, Tax Expenditures Statement 2005, p. 125.

[82]      Based on about 463,000 affected vehicles in 1999-2000, the last year for which figures are available. The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia, Fringe Benefits Tax - Decision Time, 2006, p. 19.

[83]      The Institute of Chartered Accountants in Australia, Fringe Benefits Tax - Decision Time, 2006, p. 19.

[84]      House of Representatives Standing Committee on Environment and Heritage, Sustainable Cities, 2005, paragraph 5.75.

[85]      See http://www.cra-arc.gc.ca/whatsnew/items/transit-e.html

[86]      Mr M. Jacobs (Department of the Treasury), Committee Hansard, 18 August 2006, p. 30.

[87]      COAG communiqué, 10 February 2006.

[88]      Australian Taxation Office, Reportable Fringe Benefits - Facts for Employees, p. 3.

[89]      A tax rebate for public transport fares might also be regressive as it would not be available to those who pay no tax.