Footnotes
[1] BP, Statistical
Review of World Energy, 2006, p.6,8. ‘Production includes crude oil, shale
oil, oil sands and natural gas liquids.’
[2] Year on year change in reserves is found by
subtracting production and adding new discoveries and reserve growth. On BP’s figures
world oil reserves were 770 billion barrels in 1985, 1,027 billion barrels in
1995, 1,194 billion barrels in 2004 and 1,200 billion barrels in 2005.
[3] T.R.Klett, D.L.Gautier & T.S. Ahlbrandt, ‘An
Evaluation of the US Geological Survey World Petroleum Assessment 2000’, AAPG Bulletin, vol.89 no.8 August 2005,
p.1036
[4] For example, P. Davies (BP), Quantifying Energy - BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2006, speech
14 June 2006. International Energy Agency, World
Energy Outlook 2005, p.5
[5] ABARE, Australian
Commodities, June 2006, p.303ff.
[6] International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2005, p.45. The reference scenario assumes no
policies to curb energy demand or greenhouse emissions beyond what governments
have committed to already: p59.
[7] US Geological Survey: World Petroleum Survey 2000, table AR-1. p.ES-1. This is the mean
(P50) estimate: there is a 50% probability that the true figure is at least
this much.
[8] Conventional oil production to 2005: 968 billion
barrels: Submission 10, ASPO Ireland, p.3. Recoverable
oil should not be confused with the total resource, known as the Original Oil
In Place (OOIP). The world’s Original Oil In Place is a much larger figure; but
on average world-wide only about a third of it can be recovered. This is
because, as oil in a reservoir is extracted, it becomes gradually harder and
eventually impossible to extract what it left.
[9] Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Is the world running out of oil - a review
of the debate, working paper 61, 2005, p.4.
[10] In relation to this, peak oil proponents quote
remarks by Harry J. Longwell, Director and Executive Vice-President, Exxon
Mobil, Houston, 7 May 2002. This appears to show annual oil discovery declining
in an irregular fashion, but with a clear long term trend, from about 60
billion barrels in 1960 to 20 billion in 2000.
[11] Submission 135, ASPO Australia, p.2
[12] This contrasts with BP’s figures showing
continually increasing reserves. The explanation may be that the BP figures
include reserve growth. Peak oil proponents argue that, when discussing the
trend in discovery, additions by reserve growth should be backdated to the
discovery of the field.
[13] K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas
Production, n.d. p.6
[14] K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas
Production, n.d. p.9.
[15] K.Aleklett & C.J.Campbell, The Peak and Decline of World Oil and Gas
Production, n.d. p.9.
[16] ASPO Ireland, Submission
10, p.3
[17] Estimated recoverable reserves are 315 billion
barrels of tar sands in Canada and 270 billion barrels of heavy oil in
Venezuela. ABARE, Australian Commodities,
June 2006, p.305
[18] J.H.Wood, G.R.Long & D.F.Morehouse, Long Term World Oil Supply Scenarios - the
future is neither as bleak or as rosy as some assert, US Energy Information
Administration, 2004, p.5-7.
[19] ABARE, Australian
Commodities, June 2006, p.303ff. Dr J. Penm (ABARE), Proof Committee Hansard 18 August 2006, p.59.
[20] Commission on Oil Independence [Sweden], Making Sweden an Oil-Free Society, June
2006.
[21] R.L. Hirsch, R. Bezdek & R. Wendling, Peaking of World Oil Production - impacts,
mitigation and risk management.2005, p.6-7.
[22] Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, p14,16. Condensate is a light oil-like liquid
produced from gas fields. 1 barrel = 158.987 litres.
[23] ‘Reserves’: oil in known reservoirs which can be
extracted commercially with today’s prices and technology.
[24] Dr C. Foster (Geoscience Australia), Proof Committee Hansard 12 May 2005, p.4.
[25] Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, p.13. Midrange (50% probability) estimate. An
optimistic (10% probability) estimate is for production of 342,000 barrels per
day in 2025.
[26] Geoscience Australia, Submission 127¸based on ABARE, Australian
Energy - National and State Projections to 2029-30, 2005, p.63
[27] Geoscience Australia, Submission 127, tables 1 & 2. Taking the P50 and P10 production
estimates in table 1 as a percentage of the oil equivalent consumption
estimates in table 2. ‘Middle range estimate’ = P50 figures: there is a 50%
probability that the true figure is at least this much. ‘Optimistic estimate’ =
P10 figures: there is a 10% probability that the true figure is at least this
much.
[28] ABARE, Australian
Energy - national and state projections to 2029-30, report 05.9, October
2005, p.45
[29] Australian
Petroleum Production and Exploration Association, Submission 176, p.8.
[30] Bell D., Submission 29, p.18
[31] ABC Online High fuel costs boost commuter numbers
2/09/2005 retrieved from www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200509/s1451578.htm on
1/09/2006
[32] ASPO – Australia, Submission 136, p.2
[33] Dodson J and Sipe N Submission 165, attachment Dodson J and Sipe N 2005 Oil
Vulnerability in the Australian City, p.23
[34] Dodson J and Sipe N 2006 Shocking the Suburbs:
Urban Location, Housing Debt and Oil Vulnerability in the Australian City, p.42
[35] Bell D., Submission 29, p.19
[36] Hirsch
RL, Bezdek R and Wendling R, 2005 Peaking
of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, and Risk Management. p.25
quoting U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration. International Energy Outlook, 2004.
April 2004.
[37] PBB Industry
Risk Bulletin July 2005 retrieved from www.ppb.com.au/webdata/resources/files/IRB_Oil_National.pdf#search=%22Industry%20Risk%20Bulletin%20%22
on 01/09/2006
[38] Queensland Government, Submission 155 attachments, p.18
[39] Queensland Farmers
Federation, Submission 120, p.3
[40] Queensland Farmers
Federation, Submission 120, p.4
[41] Queensland Farmers
Federation, Submission 120, p.6
[42] ASPO- Australia, Submission 135, , p.1
[43] Hirsch RL, Bezdek R and Wendling R, 2005 Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, and Risk Management, p.5
[44] Hirsch RL, Bezdek R and Wendling R, 2005 Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation,
and Risk Management, p.27
[45] ABARE, Submission 166, p.6
[46] Queensland Government, Submission 155 attachments, p.16
[47] Fisher B. (ABARE),
Proof Committee Hansard Canberra 12
May 2006, p.9
[48] Queensland Farmers Federation, Submission 120, p.6
[49] Hirsch RL, Bezdek R and Wendling R, 2005 Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts,
Mitigation, and Risk Management, p.32
[50] Bell D, Submission 29, p.19
[51] Hirsch RL, Bezdek R and Wendling R, 2005 Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation,
and Risk Management, p.28
[52] Institute for Sustainability and Technology
Policy, Murdoch University, Submission 11, p.13
[53] Treasury, 2006-07
Budget paper no 1 statement 3 - The outlook for the international economy
[54] Treasury, 2006-07
Budget paper no 1 statement 4 – Australia in the world economy
[55] Hirsch RL, Bezdek R and Wendling R, 2005 Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation,
and Risk Management, p.66
[56] ASPO-
Australia, Submission 135, p.10
[57] Robinson B,(APPEA), Proof Committee Hansard Canberra 11 August 2006, p.3
[58] Wright D (Geoscience Australia), Proof Committee Hansard Canberra 18
August 2006, p.51.
[59] ABARE, Submission
166, p.4.
[60] APPEA, Submission
176, p.4.
[61] APPEA, Submission
176, p.7.
[62] Robinson B. (APPEA), Proof Committee Hansard Canberra 11 August 2006, p.9.
[63] Hon. J. Howard, Prime Minister, Statement on Energy Initiatives, House
of Representatives Hansard, 14 August 2006, p.26. Department of Prime Minister
and Cabinet, Support for Offshore and
Onshore Exploration: August 2006 Update, retrieved from http://www.dpmc.gov.au/initiatives/docs/exploration.rtf.
on 01/09/2006
[64] H. Wu & M. Ewing, Submission 179.
[65] Microbiogen, Submission
92, p.4.
[66] Microbiogen, Submission
92, p.4.
[67] Schuck S. (Bioenergy Australia), Proof Committee Hansard Sydney 9 June 2006, p.74
[68] Demand for petroleum-based transport fuels was
about 42,500 million litres in 2003-04. Department of the Prime Minister and
Cabinet, Report of the Biofuels
Taskforce, August 2005, p.36
[69] Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p. 4.
[70] Australian Commodities, June 2006, p. 306.
[71] Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p.11.
[72] Australian Commodities, June 2006, p.306.
[73] Sasol Chevron, Submission 54, p.9.
[74] Monash Energy, Submission 58.
[75] Asia-Pacific Natural Gas Vehicles Association, Submission 75, p.1..
[76] Motive Energy Pty Ltd, Submission 64, p.17..
[77] Cummins South Pacific, Submission 84, p.2.
[78] Mr R. Scoular (Ford Motor Company of Australia
Ltd), Proof Committee Hansard, 11
August 2006, p.32.
[79] Department of Industry, Tourism and Resources, Energy in Australia 2005.
[80] ALPGA, Submission 91, p. 5.
[81] BTRE information sheet 18, Fuel consumption by new passenger vehicles in Australia, 2001.
Australian Automobile Association, Submission
151, p.10.
[82] FCAI, Voluntary
Code of Practice - Reducing the Fuel Consumption of New Light Vehicles, 15
April 2003.
[83] Australian Automobile Association, Submission 151, p.10
[84] Federated Chamber of Automotive Industries, Small cars drive half yearly motor vehicle
sales, media release 5 July 2006.
[85] ‘In
another blow for the troubled domestic car industry, one of Australia’s largest
car rental networks [Europcar] has opted to phase out most of the locally made
six cylinder vehicles in its fleet in favour of more fuel-efficient imports.’
Australian Financial Review, 1 September 2006, p.11
[86] Rail 0.0085, road 0.0265 litres per net tonne
kilometre: Bureau of Transport Economics, Competitive
Neutrality Between Road and Rail, working paper 40, 1999, p59. Figures are for
non-bulk freight on an ‘average’ interstate corridor, and allow for typical
load factors. Fuel efficiency of both road and rail has probably increased
since then.
[87] A larger proportion of freight would be on routes
where rail service could theoretically be provided, but would not be viable
because of the overwhelming natural advantages of road service on those routes.
[88] Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper, 2004, p.3.
Australasian Railway Association, Australian
Rail Industry Report 2003, p.9. Mr S. St Clair (Australian Trucking
Association), Proof Committee Hansard 12 May 2006, p.85. Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics,
Freight between Australian Cities, 1972
to 2001, information sheet 22. BTRE, Freight
Measurement and Modelling in Australia, report 112, 2006, p.xxiii.
[89] BTRE, Freight
Measurement and Modelling in Australia, report 112, 2006, p.xxiii.
[90] Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper, June 2004, p.62
[91] This is a combination of grants under Auslink
funding programs; direct grants to the Australian Rail Track Corporation, which
controls the main interstate routes; and the ARTC’s own investment (the ARTC is
Commonwealth owned).
[92] Mr S. St Clair (Australian Trucking Association),
Proof Committee Hansard 12 May 2006, p.85.
[93] The 2004 Auslink White Paper in one line flags
the possible issue of ‘depletion of fossil fuel supplies before alternative
energy sources are developed’ (p115), but makes no further comment.
[94] The public transport share is usually somewhat
higher in peak hours, and for travel to Central Business Districts.
[95] Australasian Railway Association, pers. comm.
August 2006 based on research in progress.
[96] For example, there are official goals to increase
the public transport mode share from 7% to 10.5% in South East Queensland by
2011 (Transport 2007); from 9% to 20%
of motorised trips (thus about 15% of all trips) in Melbourne by 2020 (Melbourne 2030); to reduce
car-as-driver trips in Perth by one third by 2029 (Perth Metropolitan Transport Strategy 1995-2029); to increase the
proportion of peak hour commuting by public transport (A New Direction for NSW - State Plan, 2006).
[97] Prof. P. Newman, Proof Committee Hansard 12 April 2006, p.43
[98] House of Representatives Standing Committee on
Environment and Heritage, Sustainable
Cities, 2005, recommendations 6 & 7.
[99] Department of Transport and Regional Services, Auslink White Paper, 2004, p.9
[100] For example, if car and public transport trips
are now in the ratio 9 to 1, and 10% of car trips become public transport
trips, this would almost double public transport use.
[101] Treasury, Tax
Expenditures Statement 2005, p.125
[102] Based on about 463,000 affected vehicles in
1999-2000, the last year for which figures are available. The Institute of
Chartered Accountants in Australia, Fringe
Benefits Tax - Decision Time, 2006, p.19.
[103] The Institute of Chartered Accountants in
Australia, Fringe Benefits Tax - Decision
Time, 2006, p.19.
[104] COAG
communique, 10 February 2006.