Footnotes

[1] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.18,25. Australia’s ALOP is often said to be ‘very low risk’. In fact it is ‘very low risk over one year.’ The reference to a period of time is essential for the concept of ALOP to be meaningful. See paragraph 1.19.

[2] SPS Agreement, article 5; annex A. Biosecurity Australia, Import Risk Analysis Handbook, 2003, p.5.

[3] DAFF, Annual Report 2003-04, p113-4. Biosecurity Australia, Import Risk Analysis Handbook, 2003, p.12.

[4] Hon W. Truss, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Government Commitment to Independence of Biosecurity Australia Delivered, media statement 1 December 2004. See also discussion at hearing of the Committee’s inquiry into IRA on apples from New Zealand: Committee Hansard 9 February 2005, p.1ff. BA remains part of the Department in relation to broader lines of accountability such as audit and parliamentary scrutiny: Mr J. Cahill, Interim Chief Executive, BA, correspondence 25 February 2005.

[5] Hon W. Truss, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Minister welcomes appointment of quarantine watchdogs, media statement 11 August 2004.

[6] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.112ff

[7] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.25. In fact, to be meaningful, this must be read as ‘very low risk in any one year’. See paragraph 1.19.

[8] In the case of repeatable experiments, probability expressed as a fraction x/y means that in the long run, over many trials, the outcome of interest occurs x/y of the time. For example, the probability that a tossed coin will show a head is 1/2. In the case of unique events, what it means to say ‘the probability of a certain outcome is x/y’ is a matter of argument among theorists.

[9] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.104ff.

[10] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.25,69.

[11] In this sense ‘risk’ refers to the outcome of ‘combining’ the two considerations: probability and consequences. This should not be confused with its common use as merely a synonym for ‘probability’, as in ‘the risk of an event occurring is such-and-such.’

[12] A higher risk, lower consequence situation is ‘If the coin shows a head, you lose $100’. A lower risk, higher consequence situation is ‘If the die shows a six, you lose $300.’ It is plausible that in some mathematical or logical sense these scenarios are equivalent: both scenarios, if repeated many times, will cause similar losses. However this is a poor analogy for real world situations where probabilities are imperfectly known, consequences cannot be quantified numerically for comparison, and there is only one trial. As well, it is still arguable that in principle ‘risk’ is a psychological, not a mathematical concept: whether these two scenarios are in some sense ‘the same’ is found only by polling people to see which they prefer.

An implication of this is that the concept of ‘iso-risk curve’ suggested in BA’s risk analysis guidelines (p.26) is not particularly helpful: it suggests a mathematical exactness which does not exist.

[13] Australian Standard AS 4360, Risk Management, par. 4.5.2.

[14] It must be remembered that ‘risk’ here refers to the combination of probability and consequences. It is not a synonym for ‘probability.’

[15] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.25,110,112. Import Risk Analysis Handbook, 2003, p.5: ‘Australia’s ALOP is currently expressed as providing a high level of sanitary or phytosanitary protection aimed at reducing risk to a very low level, but not to zero.’

[16] Ms M Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 10 March 2004, p.6.

[17] Dr Cheryl McRae of Biosecurity Australia was added to the panel later.

[18] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.14.

[19] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.16-19.

[20] Hon W. Truss, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Government Commitment to Independence of Biosecurity Australia delivered, media statement 1 December 2004. Mr J. Cahill (Biosecurity Australia). Committee Hansard 9 February 2005, p.6.

[21] If there is a certain probability that an event will occur in any one year, there is greater probability that it will occur at some time in the next 10 years; etc. For example, if there is a 1% probability that an event will occur in any one year, there is about 18% probability that it will occur within 20 years, and about 63% probability that it will occur within 100 years.

[22] Revised draft IRA report, p.53.

[23] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.68 footnote, p.107 footnote.

[24] OIE, Terrestrial Animal Health Code 2003: see www.oie.int

[25] Submission 7, Mr D. Peasley, attachment H2, p.2.

[26] Submission 6, ABGC, p.7.

[27] Submission 6, ABGC, p.13. The ABGC made similar statements about freckle (97%), mealybugs (97%) and Banana Bract Mosaic Virus (99%).

[28] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard (Import Risk Analysis for Pigmeat), 8 March 2004, p.33.

[29] Biosecurity Australia, answers to questions 3 March 2005, enc.2, p.3.

[30] For example: a probability of 1/50 is about in the middle of the probability range which the IRA guidelines labels ‘very low probability’. A probability of 1/50 over one year is a cumulative probability of about 1/5 over 10 years (‘low probability’) or about 1/3 over 20 years (‘moderate probability’). If the consequences are rated as ‘moderate’, this would change the assessed risk from ‘very low’ to ‘low’ to ‘moderate’. See the risk estimation matrix at paragraph 1.12.

[31] Submission 7, Mr D. Peasley, attachment H2, p.2

[32] Senate RRAT Legislation Committee, inquiry into import risk assessment of New Zealand Apples, submission 1, Apple & Pear Australia Ltd, p.11.

[33] Biosecurity Australia, answers to questions 3 March 2005, enc.2, p.3.

[34] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.43-4.

[35] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.44.

[36] This assumes that only one boundary between probability categories falls within the range shown by the distribution.

[37] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.44.

[38] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - Draft IRA Report, June 2002, p.58.

[39] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised Draft IRA Report, February 2004, p.52.

[40] Submission 6, Australian Banana Growers Council, p.7.

[41] Senate RRAT Legislation Committee, Budget Estimates, Committee Hansard 28 May 2004, p.99-100. Similarly RRAT Legislation Committee, inquiry into IRA for pigmeat, Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.30.

[42] Biosecurity Australia, correspondence 1 February 2005, answers to questions, no. 30.

[43] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.104ff.

[44] Mr D. Pullar (ABGC), Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.19.

[45] Senate RRAT Legislation Committee, inquiry into import risk assessment of New Zealand Apples, submission 1, Apple & Pear Australia Ltd, p.10.

[46] Submission 14, Queensland Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, p.5.

[47] Biosecurity Australia, answers to questions 3 March 2005, enc.2, p.3.

[48] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.105.

[49] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised Draft IRA Report, February 2004, p.152.

[50] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.145f, 159.

[51] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.148. Submission 6, ABGC, attachment 2.

[52] Submission 6, ABGC, p.10.

[53] Submission 6, ABGC, p.10. Mr L. Collins (ABGC), Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.18.

[54] Biosecurity Australia, further information 1 February 2005, Q20-25.

[55] Biosecurity Australia, further information 1 February 2005, Q10,15.

[56] Submission 5, Dr M. Fegan, p.1: ‘Research from the Philippines (Soguilon, 2003) has shown that infected plants do not exhibit symptoms 13 weeks after inoculation with the pathogen.’ A longer incubation period implies a greater number of symptomless infected plants in proportion to visibly infected plants at any one time, and therefore increases the likelihood that infected fruit will unwittingly be harvested from a symptomless infected plant.

[57] Submission 4, Dr M. Fegan, p.1-2.

[58] Submission 4, Dr M. Fegan, p.3. Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.25.

[59] Dr C. McRae (Biosecurity Australia),Committee Hansard 10 March 2005, p.4-5

[60] Cooking bananas (plantains) are widely grown in the Philippines, often in smallholdings near commercial plantations of dessert bananas. They are not grown in Australia. Dr C. Hayward, submission 4 p.2, submission 4a p.2.

[61] Submission 4, Dr C. Hayward, attachment: p.7; & submission 4a.

[62] Submission 4a, Dr C. Hayward, p.2

[63] Mr D. Peasley, Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.44. Submission 7, attachment G

[64] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.157.

[65] Submission 6, ABGC, p.11.

[66] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - draft IRA report, June 2002, p.145. Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.162.

[67] Biosecurity Australia, answers to questions 3 March 2005, enc.2, p.3.

[68] Submission 7, Mr D. Peasley, attachment G2, p.3.

[69] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.158.

[70] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - Addendum to revised draft IRA report of February 2004, June 2004, p.38.

[71] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.

[72] Submission 6, ABGC, p.19. Submission 8, Prof. J. Dale, p.[3]

[73] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.120.

[74] Submission 8, Prof. J. Dale, p.[3-4]. Submission 6, ABGC, attachment 9. Mindanao is the proposed source of exports to Australia: Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.13.

[75] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 16 June 2004, p.7.

[76] CRC for Tropical Plant Protection, correspondence 16 February 2005.

[77] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - Addendum to revised draft IRA report of February 2004, June 2004, p.9,88-9.

[78] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.178-9.

[79] Submission 6, ABGC, p14. Similarly Mr L. Collins (ABGC), Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.12. Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.179; similarly p.57.

[80] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.178. Submission 6, ABGC, p.14.

[81] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.163.

[82] Submission 6, ABGC, p.17; correspondence 4 March 2005.

[83] Biosecurity Australia, Guidelines for Import Risk Analysis, draft September 2001, p.158.

[84] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.17-18; Addendum, p.58ff.

[85] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.270.

[86] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - draft IRA report, June 2002, p. 14,.245-7; February 2004, p.271,284.

[87] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.271. Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.27.

[88] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.272ff.

[89] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.17,271ff.

[90] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004: Addendum, June 2004, p.3.

[91] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.159.

[92] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - addendum to revised draft IRA report of February 2004, June 2004, p.87-8.

[93] Submission 6, ABGC, p. 3,12,16.

[94] Submission 6, ABGC, p.12

[95] Mr L. Collins (ABGC), Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.16.

[96] Submission 7, Mr D. Peasley, attachment K2, p.5.

[97] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 10 March 2040, p.16, 24 May 2004 (hearing into Budget Estimates), p.116, 16 June 2004 p.9.

[98] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - draft IRA report, June 2002, p.247.

[99] Ms M. Harwood (BA, Committee Hansard 10 March 2004, p.13. Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.282.

[100] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.17.

[101] Mr R. Paton, Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.2,5.

[102] Mr D. Peasley, Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, confidential evidence p.1 (quoted with his consent)

[103] Dr M. Curll (NSW Agriculture), Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.7.

[104] Dr M. Curll (NSW Agriculture), Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.8.

[105] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 16 June 2004, p.7.

[106] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - draft IRA report, June 2002, p.256. Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004, p.18,292ff.

[107] Submission 6, Australian Banana Growers Council, p.17-18.

[108] Mr R. Paton, Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.5,11.

[109] Biosecurity Australia, Importation of Fresh Bananas from the Philippines - revised draft IRA report, February 2004: Addendum, June 2004, p.66.

[110] Submission 14, Qld Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries, p.2. Submission 6, ABGC, p.4.

[111] Mr L. Collins (ABGC), Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.12.

[112] Mr D. Peasley, submission 7, p.1. Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.45.

[113] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.1.

[114] Hon W. Truss, Minister for Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, New measures to boost confidence in IRAs, media statement 15 July 2004. Government commitment to independence of Biosecurity Australia delivered, media statement 1 December 2004. See also discussion of the role of the eminent scientists at hearing of the Committee’s inquiry into IRA on apples from New Zealand: Committee Hansard 9 February 2005, p.8-9.

[115] Primary Industries Ministerial Council communiqu, 19 May 2004, p.2. Submission 14, Queensland Government, p.2.

[116] Mr D. Peasley, Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.48-9.

[117] Biosecurity Australia, answers to question taken on notice, 31 May 2004, attachment 1.

[118] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 1004, p.6.

[119] Dr M. Curll (NSW Agriculture), Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.2.

[120] Mr D. Peasley, Committee Hansard 13 April 2004, p.48.

[121] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.10,15.

[122] Mr R. Paton, Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.3.

[123] Australian Quarantine and Inspection Service, The AQIS Import Risk Analysis Process - Handbook, 1998, p.18.

[124] RRAT Budget estimates Committee Hansard 24 May 2004, p.96. AFF portfolio answers to questions on notice, budget estimates 24-25 May 2004, Q. MAB 05.

[125] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), RRAT Committee budget estimates Committee Hansard, 24 May 2004, p.165. Similarly p.135.

[126] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.14.

[127] Submission 7, Mr D Peasley, attachment O, diary transcripts, 19 June 2003.

[128] Submission 7, Mr D Peasley, attachment I.

[129] Ms M Harwood (BA), Committee Hansard, RRAT Estimates 24 May 2004, p.92.

[130] Mr D. Peasley, correspondence 12 May 2004.

[131] Biosecurity Australia, answers to question taken on notice, 31 May 2004, attachment 1.

[132] Mr D. Peasley, Submission 7, attachment K. Correspondence 12 May 2004.

[133] For example his minority report, by contrast with his letter of 10 June, includes formal introductory matter which would be pointless in a private letter : ‘I was included as a member of the RAP in February 2001 because of my knowledge and experience in horticultural aspects of banana production in Australia over a period of 30 years...’ Submission 7, Mr D Peasley, attachment I.

[134] Submission 7, Mr D Peasley, attachment K2.

[135] Ms M Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.14,15.

[136] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.14.

[137] Dr C. McRae & Ms M Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 8 March 2004, p.16.

[138] Mr R. Paton, Committee Hansard 13 May 2004, p.5.

[139] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), RRAT budget estimates Committee Hansard 24 May 2004, p.129.

[140] Dr C. McRae (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 16 June 2004, p.1.

[141] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), RRAT budget estimates Committee Hansard 24 May 2004, p.135.

[142] Ms M. Harwood (Biosecurity Australia), Committee Hansard 16 June 2004, p.11.

[143] Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, Government Guidelines for Official Witnesses before Parliamentary Committees and Related Matters, November 1989.

[144] Mr J. Cahill, Interim Chief Executive, BA, correspondence 25 February 2005.