Chapter 3 - Use of Child Care in Australia

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Chapter 3 - Use of Child Care in Australia

3.1 This Chapter provides a broad overview of the child care industry and those who use it. The problems of data collection, discussed below, combined with the changes that the sector has undergone since mid 1997 mean that analysis of the data provided may not reflect fully the sector as it stands today.

Data sources

3.2 As noted in the introductory Chapter, sources of data on children's services include the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) which conducts a child care survey every three years. The last survey was conducted in March 1996. The Department of Family and Community Services (DFCS) administers two data collections – the Child Care System and the Census of Child Care Services. The Child Care System provides administrative data about agencies which receive payments from DFCS to provide child care services under the Children's Services Program (CSP). The Census of Child Care Services collects information from CSP-funded service providers on their staff, children and parents using services and various aspects of service provision. Between 1993 and 1996 two groups of service types were surveyed every other year. The results of the 1995 Census were published in 1997. The Health Insurance Commission also has limited information about families claiming the Childcare Cash Rebate.

3.3 The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW) has noted that `there is currently no children's services data collection and data on children's services are highly fragmented'. [1] Difficulties also arise because data classifications, scope and coverage of collection and definitions used vary between data sources. Further, some results are now out of date. DFCS acknowledged that its current data sources were insufficient to provide information for some areas and that there was a need to enhance the Department's current internal data sources to improve the information they provide. To this end, the Department was now conducting the census of child care for all Commonwealth funded child care services on an annual basis. The Department is also working towards conducting the census electronically in order to improve collection, storage and access to data and to speed publication of results. [2]

Recommendation: The Committee recommends that the Department of Family and Community Services, in conjunction with the other major collectors of data on children's services, adopt a more coordinated approach to data collection to ensure that overlap and deficiencies in the current data collection are overcome.

Recommendation: The Committee recommends that the Department of Family and Community Services expedite the processing of results from future surveys and census collections so that up-to-date information is available for policy development and planning purposes.

Population data on children

3.4 Children for whom child care is provided are usually defined as those up to the age of 12 years. As at 30 June 1997, there were an estimated 3.4 million children in Australia aged 0-12 years with 1.3 million in the 0-4 group. [3] While Australia's population continues to grow in the age group 0-4 years the percentage increase has declined from 5.4 per cent in 1987-92 to 0.58 per cent in 1992-97. The overall percentage increase in the 0-12 age group was 5.3 per cent for 1987-92 and 2.2 per cent for 1992-97.

Table 3.1: Number of children, age of child by year, 1987, 1992 and 1997

Age group 1987 1992 1997*
0-4 1,218,684 1,284,689 1,292,230
5-9 1,196,138 1,279,862 1,315,609
10-12 737,318 755,026 783,618
Total 3,152,140 3,319,577 3,391,457

*Preliminary figures

Source: ABS, Population by Age and Sex 1997, pp.17, 47; AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1993, p.127.

3.5 Annual growth rates published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) further demonstrate the trends in this age group.

Table 3.2: Growth rate# in estimated resident population

Age group 1981-86 1986-91 1991-96 1996-97*
0-4 1.18 1.03 0.40 -0.37
5-9 -1.46 1.52 0.53 0.73
10-14 -0.07 -1.09 1.05 0.33

# Annual average compound rate of growth

* Preliminary

Source: ABS, Population by Age and Sex 1997, p.8

3.6 The Department noted that although the decline in the numbers of children in the age group 0-4 years was small, it was a trend that would impact on the demand for child care services. [4]

The need for child care services

3.7 The number of children in the age group 0-12 years gives an upper limit for the number of children who may require care. However, a proportion of these will not require paid child care as they may be cared for by a parent who is not working.

3.8 A major reason for seeking child care is to enable parents to participate in the labour force, either to undertake or look for paid employment or to participate in education or training. As at June 1997, there were 2,129,400 families with the youngest child below 14 years of age, including 475,800 families where the youngest child was below five years old, and where all adults were in the labour force. Almost half of couple families with the youngest child 0-4 years of age participated in the labour force, while in two-fifths of sole parent families the parent participated in the labour force. Labour force participation is influenced by the age of the youngest child with a higher proportion of families, both couple and sole parent, with the youngest children aged five or more participating in the labour force.

Table 3.3: Families with both parents (or a sole parent) in the labour force, by age of youngest child, June 1997

Age of youngest child Both parents (or a sole parent) in labour force

(`000)

Percentage of total families Total families

(`000)

Couple families with youngest child aged:
0-4 406.8 48.0 847.4
5-9 313.4 69.6 450.5
10-14 282.1 69.8 404.4
One-parent families with youngest child aged:
0-4 69.0 40.5 170.5
5-9 75.8 56.5 134.2
10-14 76.6 63.1 121.4
Total number of families with youngest child 0-14 1,223.7 2,129.4

Source: ABS, Labour Force Status and Other Characteristics of Families 1997, pp.22, 26.

3.9 In March 1996, the total number of children 12 years and under with both parents or a sole parent in the labour force was estimated to be 1.6 million. [5] Not all these children were in need of child care. For example, in families where both parents work, the working hours may be arranged so that a parent is available to care for children at home.

Types and use of child care services

3.10 For children who do use child care, the care is categorised as informal or formal care. Informal care is non-regulated care and may be provided in the child's home or the carer's home. Informal care covers sibling care, other relative care and other person care. It may be provided on a no-fee basis.

3.11 Formal child care is regulated and normally involves a fee. Formal child care services include the following service types:

3.12 The ABS Child Care survey estimated that as at March 1996, 1,501,800 children aged less than 12 years used some type of formal (including preschool) and/or informal care. This represents 48 per cent of children in this age group.

3.13 Of the children using some form of care, there were 624,400 children who used formal care, i.e. 20 per cent of children under the age of 12. Informal care was used by 1,128,300 children, which represented 36 per cent of all children under 12 years of age. Some children use both formal and informal care. The ABS found that the main providers of informal care were relatives other than brothers or sisters. Nearly two-thirds of children using informal care received care of this type. [6]

Table 3.4: Children under 12 years using formal and informal care, by type of care, November 1990, June 1993 and March 1996

Type of care November 1990 June 1993 March 1996
(`000) % (`000) % (`000) %
Formal care

Before/after school

44.0

1.5

85.8

2.8

111.7

Xx

3.6

Long day care centres 113.1 3.8 146.7 4.8 177.7 5.7
Family day care 78.1 2.6 80.7 2.6 96.2 3.1
Occasional care * * 50.0 1.6 52.4 1.7
Other formal care 57.4 1.9 30.0 1.0 22.2 0.7
Preschool 267.2 8.9 236.9 7.7 200.6 6.5
Total children using formal care 530.4 17.7 596.2 19.3 624.4 20.1
Informal care

Sibling

196.5

6.5

159.1

5.2

165.1

Xx

5.3

Other relative 781.0 26.0 707.1 22.9 726.0 23.4
Non-relative 412.2 13.7 389.1 12.6 318.0 10.2
Total children using informal care 1,270.5 42.3 1.166.2 37.8 1,128.3 36.4
Total children using care 1,548.5 51.6 1,504.9 48.8 1,501.8 48.4
Total children using neither formal or informal care# 1,455.2 48.4 1,581.0 51.2 1,601.0 51.6
Total children under 12 3,003.7 3,085.9 3,102.8

*Occasional care included as `other formal care' prior to 1993.

#Includes children cared for by a parent or other organisation or looking after themselves.

Note: Components do not add to totals as children could use both formal and informal care.

Source: ABS, Child Care Australia 1996 p.12 and AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.114.

3.14 The 1996 ABS Child Care survey found that the proportion of children using child care varied with the age of the child, particularly with the use of formal care. In 1996, only 8 per cent of very young children, ie those under the age of one year, were in formal care, while 34 per cent were in informal care. The use of formal care increased rapidly from age one (22 per cent) up to the age of four with 62 per cent of children in formal care (this includes children aged 3-4 attending preschool). With the commencement of school attendance, the number of children using formal care fell, 12 per cent of five year olds, and continued to decrease as children moved through school with only 6 per cent of the age group 9-11 attending formal care. In the same period, the proportion of children using informal care was also higher for children below school age, than for older children. [7]

Graph 3.1: Use of formal and informal care, March 1996.

Source: ABS, Child Care Australia 1996, pp.5,13.

3.15 Within the formal care sector, there were also differences in distribution based on age: 21 per cent of children under two years of age used family day care while only 10 per cent of the same age group used private-for-profit long day care. Only 5 per cent of children attending long day care attended school. The AIHW noted that some of the differences reflected the purpose for which the service was established: long day care centres and family day care were predominantly used by children under school age. [8]

Table 3.5: Ages of children in CSP-funded child care services, by type of service, 1994 or 1995 (%)

Age of children (years)
Type of service Under 1 1 2 3-4 5 6 and older Total Total number of children
Long day care centres
Community-based 3 13 22 54 6 <1 100 76,857
Private-for-profit 2 8 18 58 9 4 100 142,513
Employer and other non-profit 5 15 21 50 7 2 100 16,655
Family day care 5 16 19 31 8 21 100 84,211
Occasional/ other care(a) 5 15 27 49 3 1 100 15,590
Outside school hours care(b) <1 10 90 100 74,772
  1. Includes occasional care centres, MACS and other multifunctional services.
  2. Does not include children in vacation care.

Notes

  1. The CSP census in 1995 covered only long day care centres and family day care services. The most recent year for which data on occasional care and outside school hours care services are available in 1994.
    1. Rows may not total to 100% due to rounding.

Source: AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.115 quoting DHFS Factsheets & 1995 Census of Child Care Services

3.16 The ABS survey also found that type of carer for children in informal care varied with age of the child, with children in the care of a sibling likely to be older than children in other informal care arrangements. At March 1996, 86 per cent of children cared for by siblings were 5 years or older. Other relatives were more likely to care for very young children. [9]

3.17 The 1996 ABS survey results identify the main reasons for the use of non-parental care. Work related reasons were given as the main reason for use of formal care by children aged 0-4 who used long day care and family day care (60 per cent and 72 per cent respectively). For all children 0-11 years of age in formal care, this was the reason for 87 per cent of children using OSHC services, 60 per cent for long day care and 74 per cent for family day care. In contrast, 81 per cent of children attending preschool did so because their parents considered it was beneficial for the child, for example by preparing the child for school.

3.18 Parents' work was also the main reason given for the use of informal care, with 47 per cent using informal care for this reason. However, parent's personal reasons was an important reason for the use of informal care as this reason was given for 41 per cent of children using this type of care. [10]

3.19 The AIHW's analysis of CSP-funded places for 1994 and 1995 found that 93 per cent of children attending before and/or after school hours care did so because of parents' work-related reasons, while the proportion in private-for-profit long day care centres was 69 per cent, 81 per cent in community-based services and 91 per cent in family day care. The AIHW noted that this was consistent with priority access guidelines for CSP-funded places. [11]

3.20 The ABS survey also estimated use of child care related to labour force participation. It was estimated that while 53 per cent of children under the age of 12 years had both parents (or a sole parent) in the labour force, 91 per cent of children using before and/or after school care, 80 per cent in family day care, 68 per cent in long day care centres, 55 per cent in occasional care and 69 per cent in informal care had parents or a sole parent participating in the labour force. [12]

Provision of child care services

3.21 Governments, private operators, employers and community groups provide formal care services. For example, many family day care services are operated and administered by local governments. Outside school hours care has traditionally been operated by school-affiliated organisations, although recently other service types such as long day care centres and family day care are including OSHC services. Some long day care centres are now providing for preschool education through specific programs run by qualified teachers, while other preschools now operate for extended hours and a greater number of weeks in order to qualify for Childcare Assistance.

Table 3.6: Agencies providing CSP-funded child care services, by type of sponsorship, 30 June 1996 (%)

Long day care centres
Type of sponsorship Communitybased Private- for-profit Employer and other non-profit Family day care(a) Occasional/ other care(b) Outside school hours care(c)
Local government 37.7 .. 4.5 42.4 17.8 13.3
Non-profit 49.3 .. 56.2 34.6 68.6 64.9
Religious/ charitable 12.2 .. 9.7 15.8 4.8 12.7
Privately owned .. 100.0 15.5 .. .. 0.3
State/Territory Government 0.5 .. 13.4 7.2 4.9 7.8
Commonwealth Government 0.3 .. 0.7 3.6
Total(d) 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Total number of agencies 1,112 2,456 292 366 651 3,055
  1. Family day care coordination units.
  2. Includes occasional care centres and neighbourhood model services, MACS and other multifunctional services.
  3. Includes vacation care funded under the year round care model.
  4. Totals do not always add to 100% since sponsorship is unknown in 0.3% of agencies providing occasional/other care, and 1% of agencies providing outside school hours care.

Source: AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.108, quoting DHFS 1996 Factsheets.

3.22 The majority of child care services are funded through the Commonwealth's Children's Services Program which is administered by the Department Family and Community Services. State and Territory Governments also contribute funding through joint agreements with the Commonwealth. While the Department administers most CSP funding, States and Territories may also administer CSP funding for specific child care services. It should be noted that there are also places provided through State-only funded and unfunded places.

3.23 CSP funding has been directed mainly towards places in long day care centres, family day care and outside school hours care. The number of operational child care places funded through the CSP has increased from 114,391 in June 1989 to 331,200 in June 1997 and to 399,400 in June 1998. [13]

3.24 Places in long day care centres increased nearly threefold between 1991 and 1997. As a result of the extension of eligibility for Childcare Assistance to private for profit centres from 1991, the number of places in private centres (including employer sponsored) has grown about 20,000 new places every year since then, from 43,000 to around 140,000. This greatly exceeded the original forecast of 28,000 places over the first four years. Places in community-based centres grew by around 15 per cent, from 39,700 to 46,400, between 1991 and 1997. The Department noted that `the extension of Childcare Assistance to the private sector was not accompanied by any planning controls, and had no restriction on the total number, or distribution of places. Instead, it was assumed that private sector growth would meet deficits in demand and would correspond to areas of need'. [14] AIHW also noted that:

One of the main reasons for this disparity in growth is that community-based long day care centres (unlike the other types of long day care centres) have been subject to strict planning requirements in the form of a `needs-based planning' process. Under this process, decisions allocating new child care places to particular areas are made on the basis of demonstrated need in the area for work-related care. [15]

3.25 During the same period, 1991-97, family day care places grew by 45 per cent, from 43,078 to 62,714. AIHW noted that the Commonwealth has focused on increasing family day care places as they provide a high proportion of long day care for babies, are considered to be a more flexible form of care especially for parents who do not work standard hours and have lower establishment costs in terms of expenditure on building and equipment.

3.26 Between 1989 and 1996, outside school hours places have more than doubled. The AIHW noted that OSHC places `accounted for the majority of places promised under the 1988 and 1992-96 National Child Care Strategies (50,000 out of 80,000 places), and almost all of the places had been established by 30 June 1996. These places were promised in response to the high demand for care for children of primary school age, particularly care that children could access throughout the year.' [16]

Table 3.7 Growth in the Number of Long Day Care Based Places from 31 December 1991 to 30 June 1997

Years Community Based Long Day Care Family Day Care Private/Employer and Non-profit Total Long Day Care
1991 39,674 43,078 42,771 125,523
1992 40,262 45,454 53,210 138,926
1993 42,777 47,855 61,375 152,007
1994 43,399 51,651 80,374 175,424
1995 44,566 54,041 99,909 198,516
1996 45,601 60,091 122,462 228,154
1997 46,294 62,714 136,571 245,579
1998 51,700 63,700 142,900 258,300

Source: Submission No.894, Revised Appendix 3 (DHFS), DHFS Annual Report 1997-98, p.138.

Table 3.8: Growth in the Number of Operational Places in OSHC and Other Services for Australia from June 1994 to June 1997

Occasional care Multifunctional Multifunctional Aboriginal child care services Outside school hours care
1994 4,600 500 1,100 59,800
1995 4,700 500 1,100 64,100
1996 4,900 500 1,100 71,800
1997 4,900 600 1,100 79,000
1998* 5,000 600 1,100 134,400

* OHSC for 1998 includes previously block granted vacation care places & reflects consistent counting methodology.

Source: DHFS, Annual Report 1996-97, p.140, Annual Report 1997-98, p.138.

3.27 CSP-funded places are distributed throughout Australia. The proportion of growth of long day centres has varied among the States and Territories, with Queensland experiencing the greatest growth in long day care places between 1991 and 1997.

Table 3.9: Proportion of Growth of Long Day Care Places By State and Territories from 31 December 1991 to 31 December 1997

Year NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUST
1991 12,822 12,120 11,658 1,460 2,861 187 397 1,266 42,771
1997 42,603 30,109 46,380 5,361 11,401 767 774 2,546 139,941
Difference 29,781 17,989 34,722 3,901 8,540 580 377 1,280 97,170
Proportion of Growth 31% 19% 36% 4% 9% 1% 0% 1% 100%

Source: Submission No.894, Revised Appendix 4 (DHFS).

3.28 There is also variation in the distribution by service type. For example, in Queensland, the vast majority of long day care places are located in private-for-profit centres, as this sector has expanded significantly since 1991. The proportion of centre-based long day care services to family day care places also varies between States and Territories. At December 1997, the ACT had 30 per cent more centre-based long day care places than family day care places while in Queensland there was nearly five times as many places in long day care than in family day care.

Table 3.10: Child Care Places By State and Territories as at December 1997

NSW VIC QLD SA WA TAS NT ACT AUST
Community-based long day care 16550 11,260 7,510 4,120 3,480 1,520 850 1,090 46,380
Private long day care 37,850 25,180 44,420 4,070 10,240 490 520 1,440 124,210
Non-profit employer sponsored 4,750 4,930 1,960 1,290 1,160 280 260 1,110 15,740
Family day care 20,370 16,830 11,230 5,260 3,980 1,920 860 2,570 63,020
Total long day care 79,520 58,200 65,120 14,740 18,860 4,210 2,490 6,210 249,350

Source: Submission No.894, Revised Appendix 7 (DHFS).

3.29 AIHW indicated that between 1989 and 1996 the number of children using these CSP-funded places had increased more than threefold, from 153,100 to 570,300. Children in family day care services doubled in this period (from 51,800 to 102,400) while those using long day care centres increased around fivefold (60,800 to 311,000). AIHW noted that there were many more children using services than there were places indicating that some children were in care part-time. [17] For example, there were 60,100 operational family day care places in Australia at June 1996. [18]

Table 3.11: Children in CSP-funded services, by type of service, 30 June 1989, 1991, 1994, 1995 and 1996

Type of service 1989 1991 1994 1995 1996
Long day care centres 60,800 135,400 227,300 266,900 311,000
Family day care 51,800 61,000 88,700 91,800 102,400
Outside school hours care* 29,900 46,800 63,900 99,300 112,600
Other formal care 10,600 19,000 16,800 39,100 44,300
Total children 153,100 262,200 396,700 497,100 570,300

*For 1996, there were an estimated 26,600 children in vacation care. CSP statistics do not include these children in total in as it is considered that they may be attending before/after school care.

Data are estimates only and rounded to nearest 100. Children using more than one service type are included in each service type.

Source: AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.112

3.30 Evidence from the Department indicated similar figures for children in Commonwealth funded long day care services (including family day care): that numbers had grown from around 183,000 at 30 June 1991 to over 432,000 at December 1997. [19] The Department also noted that the number of children using family day care schemes had decreased by around 11 per cent between 1995-1997. [20]

3.31 The Department also indicated that in long day care centres, 71,000 families used community-based centres, while 206,000 used private centres, 24 per cent and 76 per cent respectively. [21] Preliminary results from the 1997 Census of Child Care Services, estimated to include non-respondents, indicated that 82,800 children used community-based long day care centres and 211,900 used private long day care centres. [22]

Government expenditure on child care

3.32 The Commonwealth and State and Territory Governments fund child care. In 1996-97 State and Territory expenditure amounted to approximately $400 million. Commonwealth expenditure on child care includes payments for Childcare Assistance, Childcare Rebate, operational subsidies, capital and other payments.

3.33 Over the last eight years the Commonwealth's expenditure on child care has increased from $215 million in 1989-90 to $1.1 billion in 1996-97 with expenditure expected to increase to an estimated $1.3 billion in 2000-2001. This represents an average real growth of 3 per cent per annum. Prior to 1996, outlays were growing at an average real growth rate of 9 per cent per annum. [23]

Table 3.12: 1998-99 Budget–Actual growth in expenditure on child care

ACTUAL EXPENDITURE - $mill
Year
Type of Expenditure 89/90 90/91 91/92 92/93 93/94 94/95 95/96 96/97
Childcare assistance 97 143 289 384 497 592 657 711
Operational subsidies 80 65 92 100 112 120 132 143
Capital 7 6 10 6 4 4 10 12
Rebate 0 0 0 0 0 87 121 127
Other 31 30 43 49 59 71 72 73
TOTAL 215 244 435 538 673 875 991 1065
BUDGET/FORWARD ESTIMATES (1998-99 BUDGET) - $mill
Year
Type of Expenditure 97/98 98/99 99/00 2000/01 2001/02
Childcare Assistance 639 704 781 831 882
Operational Subsidies 95 94 94 93 94
Capital 13 24 14 6 4
Rebate 123 131 144 143 147
Other 131 124 127 144 169
TOTAL 1001 1076 1160 1217 1296

Note: The above may be slightly different from Budget Paper 1 due to different inclusions/exclusions in the Budget Papers (eg payments to Centrelink, payments to Program 4.2 Family Services).

Source: Submission No.894, Revised Appendix 2 (DHFS).

3.34 The level of growth of expenditure was mainly due to the extension of eligibility for Childcare Assistance to all long day care centres in January 1991 and the consequent growth in places in the private-for-profit sector and to the introduction of the Childcare Cash Rebate on 1 July 1994.

3.35 The Childcare Assistance is the largest single item of expenditure followed by the Childcare Rebate. Childcare Assistance grew from $97 million in 1989-90 to $639 million in 1997-98. The fall in expenditure on operational subsidies reflects the abolition of payment of operational subsidies to community-based long day care centres from 1 July 1997 and out of school hours services from April 1998. The level of capital funding declines in line with the completion of the joint National Childcare Strategy. The `other' category includes programs to cater specifically for children with special needs, program support and the Accreditation process.

3.36 AIHW noted that:

Between 1990-91 and 1995-96, there was a shift from expenditure on service provision to expenditure on measures to reduce the costs of child care for parents, partly reflecting the relative growth in long day care centre places attracting only Childcare Assistance. Over the period, the proportion of CSP expenditure on capital loans, capital grants and operational subsidies fell from 29% to 14%, while the proportion of expenditure on Childcare Assistance and the Childcare Cash Rebate increased from 58% to 78%. [24]

3.37 The proportion of Childcare Assistance between 1990-91 and 1995-96 going to non-community based centres (including private-for-profit, employer sponsored and other non-profit centres) increased from 20 per cent to 56 per cent. Over the same period, the proportion of Childcare Assistance going to community-based long day care centres fell from 45 per cent to 20 per cent, while the proportion for family day care fell from 31 per cent to 22 per cent. [25]

3.38 In evidence to the Committee, the Department noted that the actual expenditure of the child care program for 1997-98 was lower than projected in the previous budget:

An accounting adjustment was also made and involved $25 million clawback child-care assistance which had been advanced in 1996-97. There was also a decline in the average cost per child place unit due to changed patterns of demand and changed eligibility conditions. [26]

Future demand for child care

3.39 As noted above, the Department has indicated that there has been lower than expected growth in places and changed patterns in demand for child care. Changes to these two factors have a significant impact not only on government expenditure and planning but also the accessibility of child care services and the viability of the sector.

3.40 In its March 1996 survey of child care, the ABS measured the level of unmet demand for child care. It found that between June 1993 and March 1996 the proportion of children under 12 years of age for whom parents reported that they needed either some formal child care or additional child care halved, falling from 16 per cent to 8 per cent of children. [27] The Department also noted that demand for child care places for children aged 0-4 years has been significantly met, with 89 per cent of parents with below school age children able to access the care they require to assist them to study, work or look for work. Demand for school age care was estimated to be 63 per cent met. [28]

3.41 In 1996 the EPAC Child Care Task Force examined demand for child care and identified some of the factors influencing future demand:

3.42 The EPAC Task Force produced some projections of the future demand for child care. While noting that it was not possible to take into account all relevant factors influencing demand for child care, by using projected numbers in the age groups 0-4 years and 5-11 years and female labour force participation, the Task Force estimated the demand for formal child care for children in the age group 0-4 could increase from 406,000 to 441,000 children between 1996 and 2001. For this age group, informal care could increase from 180,000 to 185,000. It was estimated that the demand for formal care for 5-11 years could increase from 153,000 to 183,000 over the same period while the demand for informal care could remain the same at 575,000 children. This estimate assumes a constant fertility rate and no change in the cost of child care to parents over the period to 2001 and an increase in the female labour force participation rate from 69 to 73 per cent by 2001.

3.43 EPAC also produced a number of illustrative projections examining how changes in fees, government expenditure per child and female labour force participation might affect the demand for child care. For example, it was estimated that a ten per cent increase in fees, without a corresponding increase in government assistance to parents, would result in a fall in demand for formal child care for children aged 0-4 years from 406,000 to 369,000 or 16 per cent in the period 1996 to 2001. For children aged 5-11 a similar increase in fees would reduce demand by 11 per cent.

3.44 Conversely, a 10 per cent increase in government subsidies, with no change in fees, will result in projected demand for child care places for 0-4 year olds increasing 7 per cent and for 5-11 years olds increasing 2 per cent.

3.45 EPAC noted that there were some limitations to its analysis and `the analysis abstracts from some significant flow-on effects to the type and nature of care', with costs of formal care influencing demand for informal care and substitution between higher and lower costs types of formal care. [30]

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Footnotes

[1] Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, Australia's Welfare 1997, AGPS, Canberra, p.99.

[2] Committee Hansard, 25.6.98, p.632.

[3] Australian Bureau of Statistics, 1997, Population by Age and Sex, Cat.No. 3201.0, p.47.

[4] Committee Hansard, 25.6.98, p.641.

[5] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.100.

[6] ABS, 1997, Child Care Australia, March 1996, Cat. No. 4402.0, p.4.

[7] ABS, Child Care Australia, 1996, pp.5,13.

[8] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, pp.114,115.

[9] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.114.

[10] ABS, Child Care Australia, 1996, pp.5-6, 18-19.

[11] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, pp.115,116.

[12] ABS, Child Care Australia, 1996, p.32.

[13] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.105. DHFS, Annual Report 1997-98, p.138.

[14] Submission No.894, pp.5-6, Revised Appendix 3 (DHFS).

[15] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.105.

[16] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.106.

[17] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.112.

[18] DHFS, Annual Report 1996-97, p.140.

[19] Submission No.894, p.6 (DHFS).

[20] Committee Hansard, 25.6.98, p.631.

[21] Submission No.894, p.9 (DHFS).

[22] Budget Estimates 1998-99, Community Affairs Legislation Committee, Answer to Senate Question on Notice, No.1 (DHFS).

[23] Submission No.894, p.5 (DHFS).

[24] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.111.

[25] AIHW, Australia's Welfare 1997, p.112.

[26] Committee Hansard, 25.6.98, p.631.

[27] ABS, Child Care Australia 1996, p.7.

[28] Submission No.894, p.6 (DHFS).

[29] Economic Planning and Advisory Committee, Future Child Care Provision in Australia, Final Report, November 1996, pp.22-4.

[30] EPAC, Final Report, pp.24-7.