The Government’s Tax Package:

Inquiry into the GST and A New Tax System
CONTENTS

The Government’s Tax Package:

Short-run Implications for Employment by Industry, Region, Occupation, Age and Gender

by Peter B. Dixon and Maureen T. Rimmer

Centre of Policy Studies, Monash University

 

Report prepared for the Department of the Senate

March 19, 1999.

1. Introduction

This report is designed to throw light on the issues listed in the terms of reference in Appendix A. It is an extension of our earlier paper (dated January 25, 1999) prepared for the Senate Select Committee on a New Tax System, and published as an appendix to the Select Committee’s First Report.

In our paper of January 25 we considered the macro-economic implications of the Government’s tax package under seven sets of assumptions (scenarios). Here we extend the analysis for two of the scenarios: the central and first sensitivity cases. The key difference between these cases is the labour market assumption. In the central case we assume that in making wage bargains workers think in terms of real after-tax wage rates. This means that their wage demands would be moderated by the income-tax cuts which are part of the Government’s package. In the first sensitivity case we assume that workers bargain in real before-tax terms. Thus income-tax cuts become irrelevant to short-run wage negotiations. Under these circumstances, implementation of the Government’s package would generate a short-run jump in wage rates in line with the GST-induced jump in the CPI.

As explained in the January 25 paper, the Government’s tax package under the assumptions of the central simulation would generate a short-run employment gain of about 30,000 jobs. That is, after about a year employment would be about 30,000 jobs greater with the implementation of the Government’s package than without the implementation of the package. As argued in the January 25 paper, the increase in employment reflects the unbalanced nature of the Government’s package. The cuts in income taxes outweigh the net increase in indirect taxes by about $6 billion.

In the first sensitivity simulation the implementation of the Government’s package reduces aggregate employment in the short run by about 120,000 jobs. Short-run employment reduction in this simulation results from an increase in wage costs relative to producer prices generating a squeeze on profits and a cut in the profit-maximising level of employment. The increase in wage costs relative to producer prices is an inevitable consequence of the assumption that before-tax wage rates jump with the CPI. Under this assumption wages must move ahead of producer prices because the GST increases consumer prices relative to producer prices.

In Tables 1 to 4 we disaggregate the short-run changes in employment in the two simulations into effects on employment: by industry (112 input-output categories); by region (57 statistical divisions, see map in Appendix B); by occupation (340 ASCO categories); and by age and gender. In each table the first column shows the percentages of total employment in the industry, region, occupation and age/gender categories identified in the rows. For example, Table 1 indicates that 3.54 per cent of employment in Australia is in the Agriculture, forestry and fishing sector. The second, third and fourth columns in each table refer to the central simulation: column (2) shows the percentage effects on employment; column (3) ranks the percentage effects; and column (4) translates the percentage effects into numbers of jobs. For example, with reference Table 1, we see that in the central simulation, employment in the Pastoral zone (I1) falls by 4.16 per cent, that the Pastoral zone is the 108th ranked industry by percentage employment growth and that the change in employment in the Pastoral zone caused by the tax package is a loss of 591 jobs. Columns (5) to (7) of each table give results for the first sensitivity simulation. These columns have the same format as columns (2) to (4).

The slight discrepancies between the total job changes shown in the last row of the 4th column of Tables 1 to 4 are caused by rounding errors in our calculations. Similarly, there are small discrepancies between the total job changes shown in column (7) of the tables.

 

2. Industry results (Table 1)

In the central simulation (columns (2) to (4) in Table 1) the tax package produces a strong short-run stimulation of investment associated with a reduction in the costs of capital relative to the costs of labour. There is also a short-run expansion in private consumption associated with an increase in aggregate employment. These increases in demand (investment and consumption) favour non-trade-exposed industries, e.g. Construction (I87 and I88), Building materials (most of I57 to I67), Wholesale and Retail trade (I89 and I90), Banking and Finance (I99 and I100) and Health and Welfare (I107 and I109).

An effect of increases in demand, especially investment demand, is to generate a loss in short-run international competitiveness, that is a real appreciation. This could be through exchange rate appreciation or increased inflation. Via real appreciation, resources are transferred away from trade-exposed industries towards non-trade-exposed industries oriented to satisfying increased domestic demands. Another way of thinking about exchange-rate effects is to recognize that increased investment in Australia normally requires increased foreign-capital inflow. This increases demand for the Australian dollar.

A downside of real appreciation is that it reduces employment in trade-exposed industries. This is apparent in column (2) of Table 1 where employment falls in all agricultural industries. Employment also falls in most mining industries. However the adverse short-run effects on mining are less pronounced than those for agriculture because, relative to the agricultural industries, the mining industries benefit from sharper reductions in costs associated with the proposed reductions in producer taxes. In the case of Iron ore (I12), the reduction in costs is sufficient to outweigh the real exchange effects leaving this industry with a short-run employment increase.

In column (2) of Table 1, real appreciation adversely affects both export-oriented manufacturing industries (e.g. Food processing, I18 to I22) and import-competing manufacturing (e.g. Textiles, Clothing and Footwear, I31 to I39). One trade-exposed manufacturing industry which is projected in column (2) to experience short-run gains from the Government’s tax package is Motor vehicles (I68). This industry will benefit from sharp reductions on sales taxes on cars.

Finally in column (2) of Table 1 we see significant employment reductions in tourism-related industries (I96 and I110 to I112). As explained in our paper of January 25, failure to exempt tourism exports from the GST will have a significant negative impact on the number of international visitors to Australia. The GST will also encourage Australians to take holidays overseas rather than locally.

In the sensitivity simulation [columns (5) to (7) of Table 1], the short-run investment response to the implementation of the tax package is much weaker than in the central simulation. This is because in the sensitivity simulation businesses suffer a profit reduction associated with the increase in wage costs relative to producer prices. Consumption is also weaker in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation, because in the sensitivity simulation aggregate employment contracts whereas in the central simulation it increases. Reflecting weaker demand, there is much weaker real appreciation in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation. Thus, export-oriented industries fare better in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation. For example, in the sensitivity simulation mining employment rises by 0.29 per cent whereas in the central simulation it falls by 1.08 per cent.

For import-competing manufacturing industries, comparative performances in the two simulations depend on the relative strengths of two opposing forces. On the one hand these industries benefit in the sensitivity simulation relative to the central simulation from less real appreciation. On the other hand these industries are harmed as we move from the central simulation to the sensitivity simulation by a lower level of domestic demand. For most import-competing manufacturing industries the demand effect outweighs the real exchange rate effect. For example, for the Motor vehicle industry (I68) employment growth is reduced from 1.59 per cent in the central simulation to 0.38 per cent in the sensitivity simulation. Nevertheless, there are some import-competing manufacturing industries for which the employment effects go the other way. An example is Synthetic yarns (I31). In the central case the reduction in employment is 4.55 per cent whereas in the sensitivity simulation the reduction in employment in this industry is restricted to 3.70 per cent. For the tourism-related industries (I96 and I110 to I112) the demand effects are more important than the exchange rate effects. Consequently the employment results for these industries are even weaker in column (5) than in column (2).

Industries with only a weak exposure to international trade are clearly worse off in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation. For example, the reduction in investment as we move from the central simulation to the sensitivity simulation turns the employment result in Construction (I87 and I88) from a gain of 3.56 per cent to a loss of 0.50 per cent. Similarly, reductions in consumption in the sensitivity simulation relative to the central simulation turn the employment result for the Wholesale and Retail trade sector (I89 to I92) from a gain of 1.09 per cent to a loss of 1.05 per cent.

 

3. Regional results (Table 2)

The main ingredients in our regional calculations are the industry results discussed in the previous section. These are combined with information on the industrial composition of output in each region. Thus we find in Table 2 that regions with an over-representation of favourably-affected industries are projected to gain employment from the Government’s tax package while the opposite is true for regions with an under-representation of favourably-affected industries.

A striking feature of the results in Table 2 for States and Territories is the narrowness of their range. In the central simulation the strongest State/Territory employment result is for Western Australia, a gain of 0.59 per cent, and the weakest result is for the Northern Territory, a gain of 0.29 per cent. Similarly, in the sensitivity simulation the State/Territory employment results are confined to a narrow range, -1.42 for Victoria to -0.80 for Western Australia. The closeness of the results for the worst-affected and best-affected States/Territories reflects the similarities across these economies in their industrial structures. Employment in all of them is dominated by service industries such as Wholesale trade, Retail trade, Transport, Communication, Banking, Education, Health, Welfare, Public administration and Entertainment. Each of these industries accounts for a similar percentages of employment in every State and Territory. For some other industries there are sharp differences in their employment shares by State and Territory. For example, Textiles, Clothing and Footwear account for a higher share of employment in Victoria than in other States and Territories. Motor Vehicles are strongly over-represented in the economies of Victoria and South Australia, and Mining is over-represented in Western Australia. However these industries account for relatively small shares of employment even in the States in which they are primarily located.

The slightly above average performance of Western Australia in both simulations mainly reflects the State’s comparatively low dependence on tourism. Similarly, the slightly below average performance of the Northern Territory in the central simulation reflects its comparatively high dependence on tourism. As we move from the central simulation to the sensitivity simulation the employment performance of the Northern Territory declines. Nevertheless, the Northern Territory improves its position relative to other States/Territories. This is because export-oriented industries in the Northern Territory such as Northern beef are relatively sensitive to the real exchange rate.

At first glance the results for South Australia may seem surprising. This State will benefit from the GST via its dependence on the Motor vehicle industry. Nevertheless, it is a slightly below-average performer in both simulations. The advantages it derives from the Motor vehicle industry are offset by the disadvantages in derives from over-representation of the wine industry (a component of I28) and grape growing (a component of I6). As can be seen from Table 1, industries I28 and I6 have comparatively large employment losses in both simulations.

Like South Australia, Victoria benefits from an over-representation of the Motor vehicle industry yet has a slightly below-average employment performance in both simulations. For Victoria, the short-run negatives from the GST flow from over-representation of adversely-affected import-competing industries such as Textiles, Clothing and Footwear and Chemicals.

In the case of Queensland, the slightly below-average performances in both simulations reflect comparatively heavy tourism dependence. However, much of tourism expenditure (especially on air fares and shopping) is outside Queensland even for tourists who spend most of their holiday in Queensland. Thus, the GST-induced downturn in tourism causes only a slightly stronger contraction in the Queensland economy than in other State/Territory economies, especially New South Wales.

The Australian Capital Territory does better than average in both simulations. In the central simulation the ACT benefits from its lack of dependence on agriculture and mining. In the sensitivity simulation in which employment in most industries contracts, the ACT benefits from its dependence on public expenditure. In both simulations we assumed that real public expenditure is unaffected by the proposed tax changes.

Tasmania has slightly above average employment performances in both simulations. This reflects its below-average dependence on trade-exposed activities including international tourism.

Finally, New South Wales performs close to average in both simulations. The NSW economy accounts for more than a third of the Australian economy and has a well-balanced representation of industries. Inevitably, the performance of NSW under economy-wide shocks such as the proposed tax changes is projected to be close to the Australian average.

The results in the central simulation for the sub-State regions follow a clear pattern. In all States except Victoria the capital city is the best performer. This reflects the over-representation in capital cities of service industries (favourably affected in the central simulation) and the under-representation of agriculture and mining (unfavourably affected in the central simulation). In Victoria, Barwon has a slightly more favourable employment result than Melbourne. Barwon (which includes Geelong) benefits from its heavy dependence on the Motor vehicle industry.

In the sensitivity simulation there is little difference between the employment results for the capital cities and for the other divisions. As explained earlier, the traditional export industries fare better in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation and the service industries fare worse. This produces a more even set of industry results in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation, and thus a more even set of regional results.

One interesting pair of sub-State results are those for Moreton in the two simulations. Moreton includes the Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast. Thus Moreton has a strong dependence on tourism. Nevertheless, its employment result in the central simulation ranks quite high, fifteenth. In this simulation, Moreton suffers from the GST-induced decline in international tourism. However this effect is largely offset in the central simulation by favourable short-run movements in macro variables. With an increase in aggregate employment and consumption, Moreton benefits from increased domestic tourism. When we move to the sensitivity simulation, Moreton’s ranking drops to fifty-seventh, that is last. In the sensitivity simulation Moreton continues to suffer from the GST-induced reduction in international tourism and also suffers from the GST-induced reduction in aggregate employment and consumption.

 

4. Occupation results (Table 3)

As with the regional results, the occupational results follow from the industry results. For the central simulation we see in column (2) of Table 3 that the worst affected occupations are associated with tourism-related industries, with agriculture and with Textiles, Clothing and Footwear. Adversely-affected tourism-related occupations include 100, 120-126, 148, 180-181, 196, 220, 245-248, 300 and 308-309. Adversely-affected agricultural occupations include 21-24, 182-183 and 331, and adversely-affected TCF occupations include 197, 199-200 and 265-266. At the other end of the spectrum, positive results are shown in column (2) for occupations associated with Construction (168-177 and 327-330) and with Motor vehicles (157-161).

In the sensitivity simulation the results in column (5) of Table 3 are relatively uniform, with almost all occupations showing employment losses of between zero and two per cent. This reflects the more uniform industry results in the sensitivity simulation than in the central simulation. Nevertheless, the tourism-related occupations stand out from the rest as the worst affected.

For many occupations, industrial structure is only a minor determinant of employment. These are the occupations that are not closely identified with a particular industry or narrow group of industries. Examples of such occupations include general-purpose clerical workers (e.g 212-213 and 224-226). For such workers the employment results in columns (2) and (5) must be close to the economy-wide average.

 

5. Age/gender results (Table 4)

In the central simulation short-run employment prospects for males are enhanced relative to those for females (column (2), Table 4). Relative to female employment, male employment in this simulation is more heavily dependent on occupations favoured by the Government’s tax package. Examples of favoured male-dominated occupations can be found in the Motor vehicle industry (occupations 157-161 in Table 3) and in Construction (168-177 and 327-330). Relative to male employment, female employment in the central simulation is more heavily dependent on occupations harmed by the package. Examples of harmed female-dominated occupations can be found in the tourist sector (particularly occupations 246-248) and in TCF (particularly occupation 265).

Short-run employment prospects for both genders in the central simulation are weakest for older workers. This is explained by their over-representation in the agricultural occupations (21-24). Short-run employment growth is also relatively weak in the central simulation for young females. These workers are strongly over-represented in tourist-related occupations, especially 246-248.

In the sensitivity simulation (column (5) in Table 4) there is little variation across the age/gender groups in the short-run employment effects of the Government’s tax package. The relative uniformity of the industry results in the sensitivity simulation generates relative uniformity in the occupation results which in turn generates relative uniformity in the age/gender results.

 

6. Other issues

6.1 Unemployment versus employment

The terms of reference in Appendix A is concerned with short-run unemployment by industry, region, occupation, age and gender. For this report we have been able to generate results for employment classified by these dimensions rather than for unemployment. To move from our results on employment to disaggregated results for unemployment would require detailed information on the mobility of workers in different age/gender groups between industries, regions and occupations. It would also require information for different categories of workers on the sensitivity of their labour force participation rates to changes in their employment opportunities. Finally it would require disaggregated background forecasts of employment opportunities. Worthwhile research on mobility, participation and forecasting could be undertaken but it would require much more resources than were available for this project. In the absence of the required research we must rely on employment results as negative indicators of likely unemployment effects.

 

6.2 Aboriginal unemployment

The terms of reference are concerned with the effects of the Government’s tax package on aboriginal unemployment. We look at this issue briefly by examining the industry/occupation profile of Aboriginal employment in relation to the short-run structural effects that we are projecting from the Government’s tax package.

 

Industry profile

Data in Table 5 show shares of major industry groups in the employment of indigenous and non-indigenous Australian males and females. Public administration and Community services dominate indigenous employment, accounting for 37.7 per cent of indigenous males employed and 53.0 per cent of indigenous females employed. By comparison 16.5 per cent of non-indigenous employed males and 32.3 per cent of non-indigenous employed females are in these sectors. Consequently the effect of the Government’s proposed tax package on employment prospects in these sectors is important in determining the likely impact on indigenous employment relative to non-indigenous employment.

In both the central and sensitivity simulations employment in Public administration and Community services is favoured relative to employment in general (see the results for I105 to I109 in Table 1). On this account, the industrial employment profile of indigenous Australians is relatively favourable.

 

Occupations

Table 6 shows that indigenous employment is relatively heavily weighted towards labouring occupations (occupations 291-340 in Table 3). Employment in these occupations declines slightly relative to employment in general in both of our tax-package simulations. Employment in management and administration (occupations 1-24) also declines slightly relative to employment in general in both simulations. Indigenous people are strongly under-represented in these occupations. We conclude that the occupational profile of indigenous people is close to neutral with respect to the short-run employment implications of the Government’s tax package.

 

6.3 Accelerated depreciation and company taxes

The terms of reference are concerned with the effects of eliminating accelerated depreciation allowances and reducing company taxes. This has been recommended recently by the Ralph committee. In the time available for this report, we can consider this issue in broad qualitative terms rather than in quantitative terms.

The Ralph committee has proposed a reduction in company taxation from 36 to 30 per cent combined with the elimination of accelerated depreciation allowances. Treasury estimates imply that the proposed cut in company taxes would cost about $2 billion while the elimination of accelerated depreciation allowances would save about $2 billion. Thus it is likely that the proposed changes would have only a small effect on the overall required pre-tax rate of return on capital in Australia. Consequently we would expect the effects on investment, the capital/labour ratio and other macro-economic variables to be minor.

At the micro level, the proposed changes would enhance the desirability of some investments and reduce the desirability of others. To see how this could happen it is useful to work through some algebra. Consider an equipment investment which costs $C, has an economic life of T years and earns an annual profit of $Q. Assume that the company tax rate is t and that depreciation is allowed at an accelerated rate over S years where S is less than or equal to T. If the rate of interest to firms making this sort of investment is r per cent then the present value of the investment is given by

formula for present value of investment . (1)

In terms of this formula the proposed changes are to reduce t from 0.36 to 0.30 and to increase S to T. These changes could either increase or decrease PV. They will tend to increase PV if S is close to T, that is they will increase PV for investments on which the present accelerated depreciation allowances are not generous. They will tend to decrease PV when r is high, that is they will decrease PV if bringing forward tax savings is valuable. Some industries may have a predominance of projects in which PVs are increased by the proposed tax changes. Prima facie, it seems that for these industries capital expansion is likely. Other industries may have a predominance of projects for which PVs are reduced. For these industries capital contraction seems likely. In the time available for this section of the present study (approximately one day) it is clearly impossible to classify industries into those likely to expand and those likely to contract.

For working out the likely industry effects of the proposed changes in business taxes there are various other issues to consider in addition to the complexities of formula (1). These include: (a) the extent to which firms in an industry are incorporated or unincorporated; (b) the extent to which firms in an industry are foreign-owned; and (c) the extent to which firms in an industry pay dividends or retain their profits.

Consider first industries such as agriculture which are dominated by domestically-owned unincorporated enterprises. For these industries the company tax is largely irrelevant. On the other hand they benefit from accelerated depreciation. Thus, the proposed tax changes are likely to increase their required rates of return on capital, reducing investment, output and probably employment.

Next consider industries, such as banking, which are dominated by mainly domestically-owned corporate enterprises. The simplest case is when the industry returns most of its profits to its shareholders. In this situation company tax and accelerated depreciation are not important. This is because, via dividend imputation, tax savings to corporations will translate into extra personal tax for the shareholders. Similarly, additional taxes imposed on corporations will translate into tax savings for shareholders.

However Australian corporations tend to retain about 40 per cent of their profits. This can be thought of as additional investment in the corporations by the shareholders. In these circumstances a reduction in the taxes paid by the corporations is advantageous to shareholders. For example, if a corporation earns $100 profit and the corporate tax rate is lowered from 36 per cent to 30 per cent, then through retention of profits the shareholders can reinvest $70 in the corporation rather than $64. Thus we conclude that the proposed tax changes are likely to favour corporatized industries with strong growth prospects justifying high rates of profit retention. This conclusion is strengthened if these industries are not beneficiaries of generous accelerated depreciation allowances. We suspect that this is the case for industries such as banking in which the capital stock consists largely of land and buildings.

The next case to consider is a corporatized industry with a large share of foreign ownership. Examples can be found in the mining sector. Again the simplest case is when the corporations in the industry pay out most of their profits in dividends. In this case it is probably advantageous for Australia to impose high taxes on corporations (high company tax rates and ungenerous depreciation allowances). The reason is that most foreign investors in Australian companies can claim tax reductions in their own countries in recognition of taxes paid to the Australian government. Consider for example a U.S. investor with a personal tax rate of 50 per cent. If the company tax rate in Australia is 36 per cent then the U.S. investor will pay 14 per cent to the U.S. government on dividends received from Australia. If the company rate is reduced in Australia to 30 per cent then the U.S. investor will simply pay 20 per cent to the U.S. government. Thus reductions in the business taxes do not change the desirability of investments in Australia to the U.S. investor. They simply transfer revenue from the Australian Treasury to the U.S. Treasury.

If foreign-owned Australian corporations retain substantial shares of their profits, then the desirability to foreigners of investments in these companies is likely to be enhanced by reductions in company taxes. The argument is the same as that given earlier: reductions in company taxes increase the share of retained profits which is reinvested in the corporation on behalf of the shareholders (either domestic or foreign). On the other hand, the desirability of investments will be reduced by elimination of accelerated depreciation allowances.

In summary, the following conclusions emerge from this discussion.

 

7. Concluding results

The overwhelming conclusion from the detailed calculations presented in this report is that the Government’s tax package will have only minor structural effects on employment in the short run. Most of the percentage changes in employment in Tables 1 to 4 lie between -2 and 2 per cent. However there are some numbers outside this range. In some tourist-related categories, job losses of up to 8 per cent are projected. Other categories of employment in which the Government’s tax package could produce significant short-run effects are associated with Construction (favourable), Agriculture (unfavourable), TCF (unfavourable) and Motor Vehicles (favourable).

It was not possible in this report to consider all of the terms of reference (Appendix A) in detail. We gave only light coverage to the effects of the Government’s tax package on the employment of Aborigines. However on the basis of what we were able to do in the time available, we conclude that the package is likely to have an effect on Aboriginal employment similar to its effect on employment in general. We also gave only light coverage to the issue of company taxes and accelerated depreciation allowances. This topic warrants detailed quantitative modelling before policy changes are implemented.

 

Appendix A.

Terms of Reference

The Committee wishes to commission a research and modelling project according to the following terms of reference:

a) The impact of the governments tax package on unemployment in the short term, specifically in relation to:

b) The impact of the governments tax package on unemployment in the short term (including proposals to eliminate accelerated depreciation in the context of a 30 cents in the dollar company tax rate) specifically in relation to: