Appendix 1.4
Estimates of Future Uranium Demand:
Industry Commission research, 1991
| Name of Group or Company |
estimate of high, low or steady demand |
Assumptions or conclusions |
| Uranium Institute |
High |
Annual demand for uranium to fuel reactors will rise
from 42 000 tonnes in 1989 to around 56 000 tonnes in 2005. 26 000t
from new projects will be needed to supply the industry's reactors
in 1995 through to the year 2000. |
| NUKEM |
High |
Far east nuclear capacity will increase by 82% by the
year 2000. A significant uncommitted market is available for Australian
production. |
| DPIE |
High |
Diversification tactics by consumers towards Australian
uranium. |
| Pancontinental Mining |
High |
Three to four new mines equivalent in size to the current
production level of Ranger will be required to be brought on line
during the current decade to meet future demand. |
| CRA |
High |
Boom expected in the mid 1990s. Believes Uranium Institute
2005 prediction true due to most energy generation plants were almost
certain of going ahead. |
| Denison Mining Ltd |
High |
In the year 1989 about 43 000 tonnes of uranium were
needed to fuel the WOCA countries' reactors. In the year 2000, it
is projected that 54 000 tonnes of uranium will be needed annually. |
| Northern Territory Government |
High |
demand will increase and Australia will miss out on
potential forgone profits. |
| Uranium Information Centre Ltd |
High |
The government has hindered the development of the
Australia uranium industry, and should not play a role as judge of
market opportunities. |
| ANSTO |
High |
Until at least the year 2000 the installed global capacity
of enrichment supply will exceed the likely demand. Diversity and
security of supply will encourage customers to support new suppliers. |
| ERA |
Steady |
Extended glut - need to consolidate position and cut
costs and increase productivity. Market conditions may change in the
1990s provided current stocks are run-down and nuclear power increases
its share of energy generation. |
| Greenpeace |
Low |
Supply is expected to exceed demand in 1996-2000 will
be in balance over the next decade. The development of even a small
mine will mean that supply would exceed demand. |
| The Environment Centre Northern Territory Inc |
Low |
Acceleration of denuclearization programmes around
the world due to growing public protests about nuclear power. No room
for more uranium production capacity in Australia. |
| Friends of the Earth |
Low |
Large levels of inventories will persist in the long
term. Canada and the US plan to increase production. |
Source: Industry Commission, Mining and Minerals Processing in Australia,
Vol.3., 1991, p.575