Executive summary and recommendations
This report, the second in the
committee's inquiry into Australia's
relationship with China,
examines the factors shaping China's
foreign policy and the way in which other countries are adjusting to China's
emergence and the implications for Australia.
China's foreign policy: influences, style and responses
China
openly acknowledges that its diplomacy must serve its economic development.
Chinese leaders espouse a foreign policy that places high importance on global
stability, friendly and cooperative relations and good neighbourliness. It is
deliberately cultivating special relations with countries rich in the natural
resources it needs to continue economic development and is presenting itself to
its citizens and the outside world as an advocate for global peace. It wants to
reassure the world that its 'peaceful rise' does not pose a threat.
Although China's
foreign policy is designed to show China's
friendly face to the rest of the world, fears about its future intentions persist.
Some, especially those with important economic links with China,
such as Australia,
are keen to strengthen their diplomatic relations but are aware that the
relationship is not risk free. The report examines how China's
'good neighbour' policy manifests itself in China's
relationships with other countries and how this in turn affects Australia.
ASEAN countries
China's
emergence as a major economic and political force is having a profound
influence on its neighbours in East Asia. The strength
of the Chinese economy and its potential economic power in the future has
contributed to China's
capacity to exert a greater political influence in the region.
Although China
is at pains to stress its opposition to hegemony, power politics, and terrorism
in all its manifestations, it has a major challenge in allaying fears that more
ambitious and selfish motives underpin its 'peaceful development'.[1] It accepts that some harbour suspicions
about its intentions. China,
however, is attempting to dispel fears about its growing influence in the
region through both bilateral and multilateral means.
China
now participates—often taking the lead—in a number of multilateral fora on
economic and security issues. Most notably these include China
as an ASEAN dialogue partner, the ASEAN+3
grouping (ASEAN plus China,
Japan and South
Korea),[2]
the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
forum and, most recently, the East Asia Summit (EAS).
The committee recognises the significant role that APEC has
in the region not only in facilitating trade but in promoting regional
cooperation, good will and security. That said, the committee also recognises
the work being done in other regional fora such as ASEAN, the ARF and the EAS.
It believes that they also have an important place in developing a sense of
regional community and warrant the strongest support from Australia.
Recommendation 1
3.90 The committee recommends that the
Australian government demonstrate to East Asian countries a genuine interest in
and support for ASEAN and the ARF, redouble its efforts to reinvigorate APEC
and remain fully engaged with the East Asia Summit.
The committee believes that the Australian government should look upon these
fora as complementary.
The United States
At the bilateral level, Sino-U.S. political relations have
been tested over specific issues such as the political status of Taiwan,
democratisation and human rights abuses, as well as broader strategic
questions. In particular China's trade regulations, especially intellectual
property violations, and international energy trade are major sources of
frustration for the U.S. China's preparedness to strike energy deals with
countries deemed to be 'rogue states' by the U.S. is a serious difference
between the two countries.
If Australia
is to develop constructive ties with the U.S.
and China
concurrently, cordial and constructive relations between them are clearly
important. Fundamentally, this depends on the U.S.'
strategy towards its emerging Asian competitor and China's
own behaviour.[3] There has been some
suggestion that Australia
can play an important role as a mediator between China
and the U.S.[4] However, the committee
argues that this would place Australia
in a potentially awkward diplomatic position. It believes that Australia,
as a friend to both countries, should encourage them, in pursuing their own
interests, to place the highest priority on contributing to the stability and
prosperity of the region as a whole.
For many decades the United
States has taken an active interest in
maintaining a secure environment in East Asia.[5] The committee found, however, that the
U.S,' commitment to the region—as distinct from its own narrower strategic
pursuits—appears to fall short in comparison to China's.
A number of analysts have compared China's
growing sophistication and skill in its foreign diplomacy in the region with
the apparent lack of attention by the U.S.
Indeed, a number of witnesses to the inquiry raised concerns
about the United States'
lack of engagement in the region, particularly in light of its exclusion from
the East Asia Summit.
The committee believes
that Australia
must do its utmost to encourage the United
States to remain constructively engaged in
the region. While the committee stresses the important role that the United
States has in APEC, it believes that Australia should also encourage the United
States to demonstrate its support for the broader objectives of ASEAN—including
the ARF—and to build a more visible and credible presence in the region.
Recommendation 2
5.26
The Australia
government, through its good relations with the United
States, encourage the United
States to use its influence more effectively
in the region, and in so doing, to improve its relationship with ASEAN and its
member countries.
China's
modern militarisation
The committee recognises that as China's
economy grows, the Chinese authorities will seek to update the capabilities of
the People's Liberation Army. China's
growing investment in military capability, however, has attracted a great deal
of attention from its neighbours and those concerned about regional security.
Some view the modernisation of China's military as a threat to regional
stability, while others note that the improvements in China's overall military
capability needs to be set against the very low-technology starting point of
China's armed forces.[6]
Transparency from the Chinese government, or a perceived
lack thereof, with regard to the scope and intent of China's
ongoing military modernisation was a major issue raised during the course of
this inquiry. The uncertainty about China's
military budget and the capability of its forces creates an atmosphere of
mistrust and conjecture. Any steps taken by China to make its reports on
military spending and capability more informative, accurate and comprehensive
will at least remove the tendency for other countries to indulge in
speculation.
As a political force, Australia
has little if any influence over China's
overall defence policy or over how the U.S.
will respond to what it believes are military developments in China.
That is not to say that Australia
cannot take a constructive role in helping China
to further open up its military activities to greater scrutiny, to encourage China
and the United States
to improve the level of trust between them and to assist to create a climate in
the region where countries work together toward a safe and secure environment.
The committee believes that Australia
has an important role in encouraging both countries to work together to create
an atmosphere that supports open discussions about military and strategic
planning in the region.
Recommendation 3
6.80
The committee recommends that the Australia government work
with countries, which have a common interest in regional stability and
security, in the ARF, APEC and EAS to promote confidence building measures,
such as increased transparency in reporting on military spending and
capability, that will contribute to greater regional stability.
The committee notes China's
increasing importance as a dialogue partner on strategic and defence issues and
the growth in the defence relationship with Australia
in recent years.
Recommendation 4
6.88
The committee recommends that the Australian government
use its good relationship with China,
and its defence links in particular, to encourage China
to be more open and transparent on matters related to its military
modernisation such as its objectives, capability, and defence budget.
Recommendation 5
6.95
The committee notes the suggestions by Professor
Tow and Mr
Jennings for a regional arms control
agreement and recommends that the Australian government work with like minded
countries in the region to promote such an agreement.
Taiwan
China's
diplomatic relations with Taiwan
are of major significance to the region. From China's
perspective, Taiwan's
reunification with the mainland represents a key foreign policy goal. Taiwan,
however, is resisting reunification.
Both the U.S.
and Australia
support a continuance of what is regularly referred to as the cross-strait
'status quo' until a peaceful resolution to reunification can be found.
Essentially, the status quo refers to a bundle of commitments between China,
Taiwan and the U.S.
to ensure peaceful relations across the Taiwan Strait.
Central to this status quo is China's
undertaking to pursue reunification peacefully and Taiwan's
acceptance of its present, uncertain political status.[7]
Although an immediate threat of military conflict across the
strait appears unlikely, Taiwan's
demonstration of its political autonomy, as well as China's
continued assertions that anything other than reunification remains
unacceptable has strained the status quo.
The committee believes that the cross-strait status quo can
be maintained and that military conflict is unlikely. The sheer cost—economic
and humanitarian—of a military confrontation is the strongest case for all
parties to chart a cautious, peaceful path. A confrontation between China
and the U.S.
would polarise the Asia–Pacific and threaten military escalation.[8] The committee agrees with the Australian
government that it is not useful to speculate on hypothetical situations
involving Australia's
response to conflict between China
and Taiwan
especially where the U.S.
may intervene and the ANZUS Treaty may be invoked.
Japan
The committee recognises that China
and Japan are
two countries naturally positioned to exert great influence in East
Asia. Therefore, a cooperative and peaceful Sino-Japanese
relationship is vital for the stability of the region. Their relationship also
has a direct bearing on Australia's
interests in the region. China
is fast becoming one of Australia's
major trading allies with political and cultural ties also strengthening. Japan
is one of Australia's
most important and long-standing partners in the region with not only close
economic links, but shared strategic interests in the region. Australia
would therefore like to see both countries maintain friendly relations.
There are, however, some deep seated disagreements between
them which flare up from time to time, giving rise to acrimonious outbursts and
a failure to support each other. The committee supports Australia's
current stand that the arguments are between China
and Japan and
that it should not interfere. Even so, the committee believes that Australia
has a role in encouraging both countries to engage actively in regional fora
where they can meet and discuss matters in an environment conducive to the
resolution of problems.
The committee further notes that Australia
is committed to participate in a ministerial-level trilateral security dialogue
with Japan and
the U.S. Talks were held in March 2006. It believes that the trilateral
discussions should maintain their original broad focus on regional and global
security issues and definitely not adopt a stance that could be interpreted by
other East Asian countries, especially China,
as a move to contain China's
influence. It suggests that the three countries in the dialogue should be
careful to ensure that their discussions are aimed at involving China
as an important partner in securing regional stability.
The North Korean nuclear issue
The North Korean nuclear
issue has demonstrated China's
skill and persistence in bringing the U.S.
and North Korea
to the negotiating table and finding common ground. Between August 2003 and
November 2005, China's
decisive involvement in hosting five successive rounds of Six-Party talks
'significantly departed from its traditionally low-profile diplomacy in Korean
peninsula affairs'.[9] The U.S.
had urged China
to play a mediating role in its neighbour's disarmament, although China
differed from the U.S.
over the nature and character of the problems that North
Korea poses. Indeed, while the committee
acknowledges China's
important role in the talks to date, it emphasises that Beijing's
principal concern is not to rival the U.S.
but to ensure its own internal stability. It is for this reason that China
has remained opposed to the use of sanctions against North
Korea and encourages two-way trade and
bilateral economic cooperation.[10]
It was not until the fourth
round of talks, in July 2005, that real progress was made through China's
drafting of principles for ending North Korea's
nuclear weapons program. The chief U.S.
envoy to the talks, Mr Christopher
Hill, noted: 'we give a lot of credit to the
Chinese for putting this all together'.[11]
It led to the September 2005 Joint Statement that established six principles,
including a commitment from North Korea
to abandon all nuclear weapons. In return, the other parties would discuss, 'at
an appropriate time', the provision of a light-water reactor to Pyongyang.
However, the sequence of concessions was the stumbling block with North
Korea maintaining that its commitment to
disarmament depended on initial receipt of a light-water reactor. A further
round of Six-Party talks in November 2005 established Pyongyang's
preferred five-stage strategy for disarmament, although the sequence of
concessions is again likely to see this plan fail. The committee expresses
particular concern at North Korea's
December 2005 decision to end the World Food Programme's (WFP) emergency
distribution programs and restrict the number of WFP staff and monitoring
visits.
Recommendation 6
9.56
The committee recommends that the Australian government
continue its efforts to encourage North Korea
to abandon its nuclear weapons program and resume full receipt of international
aid. It notes the success of China's efforts to date in the Six-Party process
and urges the Australian government to continue supporting China in its efforts
to broker and implement a strategy for disarmament.
The Southwest Pacific
China
has formed diplomatic relations with a number of island states in the Southwest
Pacific. Likewise Taiwan
has established formal political ties with countries in the region. Among some Pacific
Island nations, competition between
China and Taiwan
for diplomatic recognition has, on occasion, appeared to take on the
characteristics of a bidding war, conducted mainly through bilateral 'aid'
payments.
The committee remains
concerned at the effects that this rivalry is having on the countries in the
Southwest Pacific. It notes that being relatively poor and tending to lack the
appropriate institutional mechanisms to ensure political and bureaucratic
accountability, many Pacific islands are vulnerable to financial influence and
corruption.
The committee accepts that
each country in the Southwest Pacific has the primary responsibility for its
economic and social development but that countries providing development
assistance should ensure that their aid contributes to sustainable development.
The OECD Development Assistance Committee has
formulated guidelines to assist donor countries and the recipients of
development assistance. Adherence to these guidelines would ensure the correct,
proper and most efficient use of such assistance.
The committee acknowledges
the positive and active role that China
is taking in the Post Forum Dialogue. Its level of interest and engagement
underscores the need for Australia
to ensure that it remains focused on the activities of the Pacific Islands
Forum and attentive to its goals and aspirations.
Recommendation 7
10.63 The committee recommends that the Prime
Minister of Australia
place the highest priority on attending all Pacific Forum Meetings.
10.64 The committee recommends that the Australian
government, through the Pacific Islands
Forum, encourage members to endorse the OECD principles on official development
assistance.
10.65 The committee recommends that the Australian
government, through the Post Pacific
Islands Forum, encourage China
to adopt, and adhere to, the OECD principles on official development assistance
for the islands of the Southwest Pacific.
10.66 The committee recommends that Taiwan
should also be encouraged to adhere to the OECD principles on official
development assistance for the islands of the Southwest Pacific.
10.67 The committee recommends further that Australia
work closely with China
to encourage both countries to enter joint ventures designed to assist the
development of the island states of the Southwest Pacific.
Australia
Despite diplomatic efforts to remain on friendly terms with China,
there are circumstances where Australia
may be placed in a situation requiring choices involving competing interests.
Indeed, many analysts have noted that Australia
has a difficult task in plotting a careful diplomatic course that would avoid
any confrontation with China
while remaining on good terms with a major regional partner who may be in
dispute with China.
The committee believes that Australia
must maintain its current position of presenting itself as an independent
country whose abiding interest is in ensuring that the region as a whole
remains politically stable and secure. It recognises that a cooperative
Sino–U.S. relationship is crucial to Australia's
own interests in the region, particularly with respect to the U.S.'
regional security presence and China's
economic opportunities. It believes that Australia,
as a friend to both countries, should encourage them, in pursuing their own
interests, to place the highest priority on contributing to the stability and
prosperity of the region as a whole. The committee again underlines the
important role that multilateral fora have in creating an environment conducive
to cooperative and friendly relations that take account of the interests of the
region as well as of individual countries.
The committee believes that Australia
must continue to participate actively in regional fora and encourage other
countries, especially the U.S.,
to demonstrate its support for the broader objectives of ASEAN, including the
ARF.
The committee welcomes
initiatives such as that taken by the ANU in arranging a workshop on
reconciliation between China
and Japan that
includes both Chinese and Japanese academics. It believes that the government
should lend strong support to Australian institutions using their resources to
bring together colleagues from the region to discuss problems such as
disagreements between regional neighbours.
Recommendation 8
11.38 The committee recommends that the Australian
government support Australian institutions that are using their initiative and
resources to bring together colleagues from the region to discuss means to
reconcile differences that exist between countries such as those currently
between China and Japan.
The committee also believes that Australia
needs skilled and well trained analysts, with a thorough understanding of China's
security priorities and the complexities of relationships in the region, to
advise government on foreign policy. In light of the importance of East
Asia to Australia
and the rapid and complex changes taking place in the region, the committee
makes the following recommendation.
Recommendation 9
11.55 The committee recommends that the Australian
Government:
-
place a
high priority on building-up a pool of highly trained, skilled and experienced
analysts specialised in East Asian affairs, and
-
review
the incentives it now has in place to attract and train highly skilled
strategic analysts to ensure that Australia's current and future needs for such
trained people will be met.
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