Appendix 4 - Key issues for roundtable - Tuesday, 13 September 2005
Agenda
This agenda provides
points to guide the roundtable discussion and to give it focus. It is not meant
to limit debate but rather to ensure that discussion does not dwell on just one
issue. If speakers feel as though important matters have not been identified,
the committee encourages them to say so.
The overarching
theme of the roundtable is China’s emerging influence across East Asia and the South Pacific, and Australia's responses to this growing dominance. The
following topics are listed for discussion.
China-Taiwan and the one-China policy
One of the great
dangers to international security is the possibility of a military
confrontation between China and Taiwan.
In March 2005,
Premier Wen told the Tenth National's People's Congress that:
We will adhere to the basic
principle of 'peaceful reunification and one country two systems', and, during
this current stage, to the eight-point proposal for developing relations across
the Taiwan Straits and promoting the peaceful reunification of the motherland.
We will vigorously expand visits of individuals across the Straits and economic
and cultural exchanges and energetically promote establishment of the 'three
direct links' between the two sides. We will protect the legitimate rights and
interests of our Taiwan compatriots on the mainland in accordance with the law and continue to
pursue the resumption of dialogue and negotiations between the two sides on the
basis of the one-China principle. With the utmost sincerity, we will do
everything possible to bring about the peaceful reunification of the
motherland. We stand firmly opposed to any form of separatist activities aimed
at 'Taiwan independence' and will never allow anyone to split Taiwan from China by any means.[758]
DFAT told the committee that on competition between China
and Taiwan, Australia has chosen to follow a one-China policy which has enabled
it 'to develop a strong relationship with China and, simultaneously, to maintain
unofficial relations with Taiwan, focused on economic, cultural and other
people-to people links'. On a number of occasions, the Prime Minister has
reaffirmed the government's commitment to the one China Policy and stated the
view that 'differences should be resolved in a peaceful way. This clear
statement raises questions about Australia's
position should tensions escalate between China
and Taiwan. The
US response to
such a conflict may place Australia
in a position of having to decide between support for the US
or maintaining friendly ties with China.
The committee would
like your thoughts on the tension that exists between China and Taiwan over Taiwan independence and some insight into what
sits behind the rhetoric coming out of both China and Taiwan and the potential for miscalculation. It
would also like to hear your views on where the US stands on the cross-strait relations and
how ready it is to support Taiwan in a conflict with China. Finally, the committee would like to
explore the options that Australia should be considering in light of the
potential for military conflict across the straits. The significance of the
ANZUS Treaty in the context of this conflict is another matter that interests
the committee.
China—US
tensions
Australia
faces a serious dilemma should tensions mount between Australia's
closest ally, the US,
and one of its most important trading partners, China.
The roundtable has examined the possibility of confrontation between China
and Taiwan
which could draw the US
into the conflict. There are other areas under strain in the relationship
between China
and the US that
could affect Australia.
For example, the bilateral trade deficit of the US
with China is
one factor that places strain on the relationship. The deficit stood at US$12.9
billion in March 2005, the largest the US
has with any single trading partner.[759]
In March this year
in an address to the Lowy Institute, the Prime Minister, Mr John Howard, stated:
Australia does not believe that there is anything inevitable
about escalating strategic competition between China and the US. In recent years, both sides have shown themselves
keen to co-operate on common interests and to handle inevitable differences in
an atmosphere of mutual respect, a point stressed repeatedly by US secretary of State Condoleeza Rice on her visit to China earlier this month.
Australia is encouraged by the constructive and realistic
management of this vital relationship. We see ourselves as having a role in
continually identifying, and advocating to each, the shared strategic interests
these great powers have in regional peace and prosperity.[760]
The committee would like your views on the
tensions that exist between the US and
China,
the nature of tensions, the likelihood for them to escalate and the
implications for Australia. It
is particularly interested to hear opinions on the policy stance that Australia
should adopt to ensure that its interests are best protected.
Your views on the Prime Minister statement
would also be welcomed.
China–Japan tensions
In April 2005, strong anti-Japan sentiment gave rise to
angry public demonstrations in Shanghai,
Beijing and other Chinese cities.
They were sparked by the Japanese Ministry of Education's approval of another
textbook that the Chinese say glosses over Japan's
Pacific war atrocities. Some commentators have identified other areas of friction
between the two countries such as Japan's
campaigning for permanent membership of the United Nations and territorial
disputes with strategic overtones particularly in the East China Sea.
The committee would
like to know more about the cause of this public display of anger in April 2005
and whether there are other deeper underlying tensions between the two
countries likely to ignite further demonstrations or cause serious rifts in the
relationship. The committee is interested in identifying the matters most
likely to damage the relationship and to learn more about the ability and
willingness of both countries to resolve their differences. It would like your
views on what policies Australia should adopt and what actions it should take in light of the potential
for friction between China and Japan.
The Korean Peninsula
The issue of nuclear proliferation on the Korean
Peninsula is potentially the most
serious security problem confronting the Asia-Pacific region and the defining
issue when discussing China's
relations with the divided Korean Peninsula.
There is the obvious, inherent danger in North
Korea using or trading nuclear weapons and
the risk that their possession may trigger a nuclear arms race amongst
neighbouring countries. From China's
perspective, this would be detrimental to the regional security they require to
ensure continued economic growth. Alternatively, China
is disinclined to precipitate the demise of the ruling North Korean regime,
leaving it in a potentially difficult position in its relations with Australia's
closest regional allies, Japan
and the US.
The committee notes the important mediating role China
has played since the most recent North Korean nuclear crisis emerged.
The committee would
like to have your views on the developments on the Korean Peninsula, their implications for China and the region and what role Australia should take to help minimise the dangers of
nuclear proliferation in the region.
China and its neighbours in South East Asia
The ASEAN countries recognise that their relationship with China
has not been easy over the past decades. [761] Mr
H.E.Ong Keng Yong,
Secretary General of ASEAN, noted that the relationship has had 'its ups and
downs'. He stated:
Before ties between ASEAN and China
were formally established in 1991, they were marked by mutual suspicion,
mistrust and animosity largely because of China's
support for the communist parties in ASEAN countries.
The normalisation of relations with China
in 1990 by Indonesia
and then Singapore
and Brunei Darussalam acted as a catalyst to set the path for China's
admission into the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1994 and eventually the
granting of ASEAN dialogue partnership in 1996. Since then, the partnership
grew from strength to strength resulting in the expansion and deepening of
cooperation in the economic, political and security, social and cultural and
development cooperation areas.[762]
He also stated on another occasion that:
While it is easy and tempting to see China's
rise as an economic threat, it would be a mistake to do so. A rapidly growing China
is the engine which powers regional economies and the global economic train.
ASEAN member countries will benefit greatly, provided they adapt fast enough to
ride on train. Indeed, increased trade with China
was one reason why many of the crisis-hit economies in ASEAN recovered as
quickly as they did.[763]
The committee would
welcome your views on China's growing influence in South East Asia,
the coming East Asia Summit and its significance for Australia.
China’s
expanded activities across the Southwest Pacific.
In the earlier part
of this year, a number of articles in the media reflected on China's interest in the Pacific region
particularly the island states of Melanesia. Some
noted China's competition within Taiwan in this area referring to dollar or
chequebook diplomacy. The assumption is that China has been courting island governments and
extending its network of diplomatic missions to thwart countries switching
their allegiance to Taiwan. Professor Ron Crocombe, emeritus professor at the University of the South Pacific stated on
Radio Australia that:
[China]
wants to be the major influence in the Pacific, there's no doubt about that;
it's aiming to be that in a fairly short time.
It has to be carefully planned, [there's been] very
strategically placed aid. You'll notice Chinese aid is quite different from
other patterns: China
is heading straight for the jugular.
It goes for firstly for trips and favours for the politically
powerful and very lavish receptions that are on a broader scale than most.[764]
According to DFAT, China
has a strong diplomatic presence in the South Pacific, with more
diplomats—though not more missions—than any other country. Taiwan
also has six embassies in the region. A priority for China’s
six embassies is competition from Taiwan
for diplomatic recognition.
It noted that China
has greatly increased its aid to the Pacific in recent years, with one study suggesting
that Chinese aid could total up to $300 million annually. It suggested that both
China and Taiwan
use economic assistance as a lever in their competition for diplomatic
recognition. Australia
opposes such chequebook diplomacy, because it works against regional countries’
efforts to improve governance and political stability.
DFAT further noted that China
has a strong and growing business presence in the Pacific, supported actively
by its diplomatic missions. Over 3,000 Chinese state owned and private
enterprises have been registered in the Pacific region, with investments of
about $800 million. Increased economic activity has been accompanied by an
increase in ethnic Chinese populations in the Pacific island countries.
It stated that Australia
welcomes China’s
constructive engagement in the South Pacific and encourages China
to increase the accountability and transparency of its aid programs.
The committee did not
receive many submissions on China in the Southwest Pacific. It is looking to
gain a better understanding of the activities of China in the Southwest Pacific, the motives
behind its growing presence in this area, and the implications for the region.
It would like your views on the approach being taken by China in the Southwest Pacific, whether it should
be of concern to Australia and if so, what Australia should be doing.
China's
military modernisation
An important facet of China's
emerging influence across Asia is the modernisation of
the People's Liberation Army (PLA). The Commonwealth Department of Defence
submitted to the committee that China
was intent on further exerting its security influence in the region:
China
will continue to view military strength as a key component of comprehensive
national power, vital to securing its territorial claims, protecting its
economic interests and building political influence.[765]
As military strength is no longer measured by the size of a
country's ground force, the PLAs 'military modernisation program' is primarily
aimed at improving the technological and strike capabilities of their navy, air
and missile forces. Other aspects of this program include organisational,
strategic and logistics reform, improved training and education for military
personnel and a growing emphasis on the commercialisation of support functions.[766]
According to the Department of Defence, China's
expanding military capabilities are likely to be reflected in its level of
cooperative international engagement with foreign forces and even possible
participation in UN peacekeeping activities.[767]
However, the PLA's increasing strength is also likely to place strains on China's
relationships with the US
and Japan.
The committee would
like to hear your views on China's military influence.
ASEAN, China
and Australia
Economically and strategically, China
has become closer to the 10 members of the Association of South East Asian
Nations (ASEAN). It has completed a merchandise free trade agreement with ASEAN
and is currently negotiating an FTA in services. Since the late 1990s, China,
Japan and South
Korea have been included in ASEAN as part of
the ASEAN+3 grouping. Separate summits are convened for ASEAN and ASEAN+3.
On 13 July 2005,
Australia
signed the ASEAN Treaty of Amity and Cooperation. Australia
had long taken exception to the terms of this Treaty, particularly its clause
rejecting security with a great power. The treaty also prohibits signatories
from involvement in other nations' internal affairs and leaves dispute
resolution to a high council composed of ASEAN members.
Despite its reservations, Australia's
decision to sign the treaty led to its admission to the inaugural East Asia
Summit to be held in Malaysia
later this year. Australia
joins with India
and New Zealand
to make a membership of 16.
-
China was initially reluctant to have Australia
or India included in the Summit given their strategic relationship with the US.
-
The US has never wanted an East Asian body to
develop without American inclusion. On the other hand, it has been noted that
the inclusion of Australia and India should appease US concerns over growing
Chinese leadership in the new grouping.[768]
-
The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and
Trade foresees that the emerging three tier structure (ASEAN, ASEAN+3, 16
member summit) will eventually merge to form a single East Asia diplomatic and
economic community.
The Committee would like to hear your views on the merit
of Australia's decision to sign the Amity and Co-operation Treaty, the extent
to which the US may feel threatened by growing Chinese influence in the East
Asian Summit, and the likelihood of a more cohesive East Asian bloc (including both
China and Australia).
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