Chapter 1 Introduction
Purpose of the Report
1.1
This report examines issues arising out of Australia’s ratification of
the Kyoto Protocol in December 2007 and recommends an approach for Australia to adopt at the 15th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change in Copenhagen, Denmark.
Conduct of the Committee’s Review
1.2
The review contained in this report was advertised in the national press
and on the Committee’s website.[1] Invitations to lodge
submissions were also sent to all State Premiers, Chief Ministers, Presiding Officers
of Parliaments and to individuals who had expressed an interest in being kept
informed of proposed Treaty actions. Submissions received and their authors are
listed at Appendix A.
1.3
Public hearings were conducted by the Committee in Canberra, Brisbane, Darwin and Perth from August to December 2008. In total, 33 witnesses were
examined at nine public hearings. The dates and locations of the hearings,
including the names of the witnesses who appeared before the Committee, are at
Appendix C.
1.4
Access to the published submissions to the inquiry, transcripts of
evidence taken at public hearings, and an electronic copy of the report are
available on the internet from the Committee’s website: http://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/House_of_Representatives_Committees?url=jsct/reports.htm
Approach to this Report
1.5
The Committee has taken a conscious decision in this report to adopt a
scientific evidence-based approach as it relates to the issue of climate change
and greenhouse gas emissions.
1.6
Scientific evidence provides a sound basis for policy in this instance
because the nature of scientific evidence makes it a uniquely reliable source
in describing the behaviour of the physical world, and this report largely addresses
how the international community ought to react to that behaviour.
1.7
Scientific evidence is based on what is called the ‘scientific method’.
The scientific method involves scientists testing the findings of their peers’ assertions
in an attempt to falsify them. The more that attempts to falsify a finding
fail, the more reliable that finding is considered to be.
1.8
Eventually, should the initial result be repeated often enough, it can
come to be considered a general rule that can be relied on in most
circumstances.
1.9
This process of continuous testing provides for uniquely reliable
evidence. The reliability of the scientific method means it is used in
everything from testing the effectiveness of new medicines to testing the
reliability of aircraft.
1.10
The evidence for human caused greenhouse gas emissions increasing the
average temperature of the planet has successfully avoided falsification for
long enough and by enough scientists in the field to be considered robust and
reliable.
Structure of this Report
1.11
This report contains five chapters. Chapter one is this introduction.
Chapter two
1.12
Chapter two details the evidence that human caused greenhouse gas
emissions are causing climate change, discusses the effects of climate change,
and proposes an appropriate stabilisation level for greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere.
1.13
Evidence from ice cores has shown that the Earth’s climate has remained
relatively steady for the past 400,000 years. For that period, temperatures
and greenhouse gas levels have fluctuated in parallel, with higher
concentrations of greenhouse gases coinciding with higher average
temperatures. The highest level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the
last 400,000 years was 280 parts per million.
1.14
However, 150 years ago levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere
began to rise rapidly. The latest measurement for greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere is 380 parts per million, already 100 parts per million higher than
it has been for the past 400,000 years. In line with the evidence from ice
cores, the increase in greenhouse gases is coinciding with an increase in the
average temperature, both in the atmosphere and in the oceans. The average
temperature increase over the 100 years prior to 2005 was 0.74 degrees
Celsius. Average temperature measures show that the temperature has risen more
quickly since 1950.
1.15
The concentration of greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is higher than it
has been for the last 400,000 years and corresponds to the increased use of
fossil fuels and other chemicals to provide power and raw materials to industry
and households. The combustion of fossil fuels and other chemical processes
produces the greenhouse gases that are now increasing in the atmosphere. These
processes are collectively called ‘anthropogenic’, that is, caused by humans. The
quantum of emissions from human caused sources exceeds those from natural
sources.
1.16
Modelling greenhouse gas emissions and temperature increases into the
future shows that, in a business as usual scenario, greenhouse gases could
reach a concentration of 1130 parts per million by 2060, with average
temperatures increasing between 4.9 and 6.1 degrees Celsius above the
pre-industrial average.
1.17
A business as usual scenario is likely to result in the extinction of 80
per cent of all species, the destruction of the Greenland ice shelf, with a
consequent five metre rise in sea level, and the loss of all coral reefs.
1.18
In order to avoid effects of this sort, human caused greenhouse gas
emissions need to be reduced.
1.19
The degree to which greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced is
calculated on the basis of what is considered an acceptable level of greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The calculation of an acceptable level
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere means striking a balance between what
reductions are achievable and the level of climate disruption the community is
prepared to accept.
1.20
Most discussion within the global community about an appropriate level
of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere ranges between 370 parts per million and
550 parts per million.
1.21
At concentrations of 550 parts per million, Australia risks the loss of
a significant number of species, a drier and hotter environment, and the likely
loss of national icons such as the Great Barrier Reef. The Committee has found,
in line with the conclusions of the Garnaut Inquiry, that it is in Australia’s
interests to secure global agreement to deliver deep cuts in emissions so as to
stabilise concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere by 450 parts per
million or lower by 2050.
Chapter three
1.22
Chapter three examines what level of reduction in emissions will be
necessary to reach a target of 450 parts per million, and how the necessary
reductions can be made.
1.23
In 2000, global emissions of greenhouse gases amounted to the equivalent
of 42 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide. In a business as usual scenario, this is
predicted to grow to 70 gigatonnes by 2050. In order to reach a target of 450
parts per million, annual emissions will need to decline to 12 gigatonnes of
carbon dioxide annually by 2050. In percentage terms, this amounts to an
international emissions reduction of between 60 and 80 percent by 2050.
1.24
No single nation, or group of nations, is capable of reducing emissions
sufficiently to meet this target. Emissions reductions of this magnitude can
only be achieved through a comprehensive international agreement.
1.25
There are two issues that need to be resolved by an international
agreement to reduce greenhouse gases:
n how to distribute
responsibility for reductions; and
n what sort of
mechanism is used to generate the reductions.
1.26
In terms of the mechanism for reducing emissions, the chapter considers
two market based mechanisms. Market based mechanisms work by attributing a
cost to the emissions used to produce goods and services. The greater the
emissions used, the greater the cost. Market based mechanisms encourage
consumers to purchase goods and services with lower emissions, and encourage
businesses to invest in technologies to reduce emissions in their production
process.
1.27
The two market based mechanisms considered in the chapter are:
n a carbon tax, where the
carbon emitted during the production of a good or service is taxed; and
n a carbon market,
where permits to emit carbon become tradeable instruments.
1.28
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government adopt a carbon
market mechanism to reduce emissions.
Chapter four
1.29
Having determined the level of greenhouse gas reductions Australia is required to make to avoid serious climate disruption, in chapter four the
Committee goes on to consider a number of mechanisms that may contribute to the
reductions Australia needs to make.
1.30
The chapter begins by pointing out that for an 80 percent reduction to occur
between 2010 and 2050, a 40 year time frame, this would require emissions to be
cut by an achievable two percent a year.
1.31
There are three types of mechanisms considered in the chapter. The first
is policy settings by the Government. The Committee considers the Australian
Government’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), and the Mandatory
Renewable Energy Target (MRET) for major electricity producers.
1.32
The second mechanism considered by the Committee is modifying current
practices that result in large greenhouse gas emissions. A number of
sources of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia are due to practices that
could be modified with a change in attitude by the community. The practices
are:
n use of private
vehicles where public transport is a viable option;
n land clearing; and
n savannah burning.
1.33
In the Committee’s view, there is scope to increase the use of public
transport, to reduce emissions from land clearing, and reduce emissions from
savannah burning in addition to the emissions reductions to be obtained from
the CPRS and MRET.
1.34
The third mechanism is much wider deployment of low emissions
technologies. The Committee considers the following low emissions technologies:
n wind generation;
n geothermal energy;
n ocean power;
n solar power;
n cogeneration;
n carbon capture;
n alternative fuels for
vehicles; and
n biochar.
1.35
A number of these technologies are in the early stages of development
and will not contribute to reductions in emissions for some time, possibly up
to a decade.
1.36
However, others, such as wind electricity generation, solar field
electricity generation and hybrid vehicles are technologies available for use
now, and are underexploited in Australia.
Chapter five
1.37
Chapter five moves on from considering how to reduce emissions to
considering how Australia will adapt to the climate changes already in train.
1.38
The evidence presented in chapter two indicates that climate change is
already occurring, and will continue to occur for some time even if greenhouse
gas emissions were reduced immediately. As the climate changes, it will become
more important for the Australian Government to assist the community to adapt.
1.39
During the inquiry, the Committee was advised about two mechanisms to
assist with adaptation: changing building regulations to encourage the
construction of buildings more appropriate to warm climates; and reversing land
clearing. These mechanisms are discussed in this chapter.
1.40
Currently all construction in the states and territories is regulated by
the Building Code of Australia (the BCA). The BCA is administered by the
Australian Building Codes Board on behalf of the Australian Government and
state and territory governments. The BCA governs a range of factors relating to
structure, fire safety, access, equipment, health and sustainability.
1.41
One of the objectives of the BCA is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by ensuring the efficient use of energy in newly constructed buildings. This is
achieved through a verification process where all proposed designs for new
buildings must achieve an ‘efficiency star rating’ or equivalent level of
efficiency.
1.42
The Committee heard that the efficiency star rating is devised for
climatic conditions in southern Australia, but has universal application across
Australia.
1.43
The Committee found that the verification process and star rating do not
result in energy efficient buildings in northern Australia. Consequently, the
Committee recommends that the BCA be reviewed so that it is flexible enough to
recognise that energy efficient design varies depending on the climate.
1.44
In relation to land clearing, the Committee was apprised of studies
which indicate that land clearing produces significantly higher temperatures
than no land clearing. These temperature differences show a correspondence with
areas where major clearing of native vegetation has taken place, such as
eastern and southwest Western Australia.
1.45
Mean summer rainfall in eastern Australia and southwest Western Australia was lower by four to 12 percent and four to eight percent respectively
compared to the non-cleared scenario.
1.46
In other words, land clearing increased the severity of drought.
1.47
The Committee considers that the restoration of cleared vegetation could
limit the effect of global heating on temperature and rainfall at a regional
level. Restoration of vegetation in certain regions could lead to higher
rainfall and lower temperatures.
1.48
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government investigate
using revegetation as an adaptation mechanism to reduce temperature and
increase rainfall in applicable parts of Australia.
1.49
Finally, the Committee expresses a view that Australia needs to begin
identifying and developing adaptation strategies now.
1.50
The Committee recommends that the Australian Government conduct an
inquiry into adaptation strategies for climate change.