The July 2024 NATO Summit marked 75 years of the alliance. Founded to deter Soviet aggression by committing its members to collective defence, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been revitalised by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. NATO’s membership has increased to 32 states – Sweden and Finland joined in 2024 – and several European powers have increased defence spending to 2% of GDP, in line with NATO guidelines. With the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025, the alliance is seeking to strengthen its position given Trump’s statements about not supporting NATO members who don’t reach the 2% defence spending guideline.

Summit Declaration

The summit’s declaration recorded several notable outcomes, as follows.

Support for Ukraine

NATO announced its decision to establish NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine, a new command designed to coordinate contributions of military equipment and training to Kyiv.

NATO made a Pledge of Long-Term Security Assistance for Ukraine aimed at assuring Ukraine of continued military support. It noted that ‘Through proportional contributions, Allies intend to provide a minimum baseline funding of €40 billion within the next year, and to provide sustainable levels of security assistance for Ukraine to prevail’.

In addition, NATO offered political support, stating that ‘Ukraine’s future is in NATO’. The declaration reaffirmed that NATO ‘will be in a position to extend an invitation to Ukraine to join the Alliance when Allies agree and conditions are met’; however, it did not establish a timeline, suggesting that Ukraine won’t be invited to join while at war with Russia, as NATO members would be obliged to defend it.

Upgrading the defence industrial base

The inability of NATO to provide Ukraine with sufficient numbers of artillery shells has demonstrated the extent to which Western defence industries have atrophied and the importance of revitalising them. Members agreed to a NATO Industrial Capacity Expansion Pledge that aims to strengthen defence industrial cooperation and help members restock their arsenals while sending military aid to Ukraine.

External actors

NATO addressed the role played by non-European states supporting Russia’s war on Ukraine. Noting that China is a ‘decisive enabler’ of Russia’s war through its support for Russia’s defence industrial base, the declaration asserted that China’s ‘stated ambitions and coercive policies continue to challenge our interests, security and values’ and ‘continues to pose systemic challenges to Euro-Atlantic security’, not least through its dissemination of disinformation and malicious cyber activities. NATO called upon China to ‘act responsibly in cyberspace’, ‘support international efforts to promote responsible space behaviour’ and, noting China’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal, urged it to ‘engage in strategic risk reduction discussions’ and practise transparency.

NATO also observed that North Korea and Iran are supporting Russia by providing missiles, artillery shells and uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAV). The declaration noted ‘with great concern the deepening ties between the DPRK [Democratic People’s Republic of Korea] and Russia’, adding that any ‘transfer of ballistic missiles and related technology by Iran to Russia would represent a substantial escalation’.

Strengthening ties with Indo-Pacific partners

Australian, Japanese, New Zealand and South Korean representatives attended the summit. The declaration observed that the ‘Indo-Pacific is important for NATO, given that developments in that region directly affect Euro-Atlantic security’ and added that NATO is enhancing cooperation with partners in the region to address cross-regional challenges.

Implications for NATO of a Trump presidency

Numerous sources reported on concern among summit attendees regarding the possibility of a future Trump presidency. Trump has claimed he would settle the Ukraine War in one day, possibly by pressuring Ukraine to surrender Crimea and the Donbas region to Russia [paywall], and that he would tell Russia ‘to do whatever the hell they want’ to NATO allies that don’t meet defence spending guidelines. In preparation for his possible return, NATO members have taken steps to, as some analysts have put it, ‘Trump-proof’ the alliance ahead of the US presidential election.

This includes passing legislation in the US Congress to prevent any president from withdrawing the country from NATO without Senate approval or an Act of Congress. Furthermore, NATO will assume a greater role in coordinating arms supplies to Ukraine in an effort to ‘safeguard the process as NATO-sceptic Donald Trump bids for a second term as U.S. president’.

Nevertheless, a Trump administration would wield significant influence over the fate of NATO and Ukraine. As the dominant power within NATO, if the US chose not to defend its allies or denied support to Ukraine, it would be difficult for other NATO members to compensate for Washington’s absence.

Australia, NATO and the Indo-Pacific

Australia is one of NATO’s global partners with which the alliance cooperates to address specific challenges. For example, Australia made a significant contribution to the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, partnered with NATO to fight ISIS, has contributed over $1.1 billion in military aid to Ukraine and enjoys ‘enhanced opportunities’ as part of NATO’s Partnership Interoperability Initiative.

Closer collaboration with NATO is likely as Australia is one of NATO’s Indo-Pacific Four (IP4) partners, alongside Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, and the alliance has identified the Indo-Pacific as a region that can affect European security. As cross-regional challenges escalate – such as the growing strategic relationship between Russia and China, the disinformation they disseminate and offensive cyber operations they conduct – the stage is set for deeper collaboration between NATO and its IP4 partners. Four priorities have been agreed to, indicating where Australia will focus it NATO-related efforts: supporting Ukraine, cybersecurity, addressing disinformation and tackling the impact of emerging technologies.

Despite such common interests, NATO’s focus will remain on European security, given the immediate threat posed by Russia. Collaboration on addressing the ‘systemic’ challenge of China may also be constrained by the inability of NATO members to agree on the nature and extent of the challenge posed by China.

Looking ahead, if Donald Trump regains the US presidency and restricts or cancels aid to Ukraine, it is possible that other NATO members will ask Australia to make a greater contribution to support Ukraine.