Immigration-related measures in the Budget October 2022–23
generally implement Australian Labor Party (ALP) election commitments and
announcements from the new Government since the May 2022 election, in
particular stemming from the Jobs and Skills Summit in September.
Migration Program
At the Jobs and Skills summit in September 2022, the
Government announced an increase in the permanent Migration Program to 195,000
places for 2022–23, up from 160,000 places set in the March 2022–23 Budget. The
detailed breakdown of allocations to visa categories was released with the
Budget and is available on the Department of Home Affairs webpage
on Migration Program planning levels. The revised planning levels are shown
in Table 1, along with the planning levels from the March 2022–23 Budget and
the 2021–22 planning levels and outcome of places granted.
Table 1 Migration Program
planning levels, 2021–22 and 2022–23
| Visa category |
2021–22 Budget |
2021–22 outcome |
2022–23 March Budget |
2022–23 October Budget |
| Skill stream |
|
|
|
|
| Employer Sponsored |
22,000 |
26,103 |
30,000 |
35,000 |
| Skilled Independent |
6,500 |
5,864 |
16,652 |
32,100 |
| Skilled Regional |
11,200 |
18,223 |
25,000 |
34,000 |
| State/Territory Nominated |
11,200 |
19,376 |
20,000 |
31,000 |
| Business Innovation and
Investment Program |
13,500 |
10,496 |
9,500 |
5,000 |
| Global Talent |
15,000 |
8,776 |
8,448 |
5,000 |
| Distinguished Talent |
200 |
225 |
300 |
300 |
| Skill total |
79,600 |
89,063 |
109,900 |
142,400 |
| Family stream |
|
|
|
|
| Partner |
72,300 |
46,288 |
40,500 |
40,500 |
| Parent |
4,500 |
4,500 |
6,000 |
8,500 |
| Child |
3,000 |
3,006 |
3,000 |
3,000 |
| Other Family |
500 |
500 |
500 |
500 |
| Family total |
77,300 |
51,288 |
50,000 |
52,500 |
| Special Eligibility |
100 |
199 |
100 |
100 |
| Total Migration Program |
160,000 |
143,556 |
160,000 |
195,000 |
Source: Department of Home
Affairs, Migration Program planning levels webpage; Department of Home Affairs, 2021–22 Annual Report, (Canberra: Department of Home Affairs, 2022), 98.
Note that Child and Partner visa places are now ‘demand
driven’ (that is, not capped), but they are still counted in the overall program
for planning purposes.
Most of the extra 35,000 places have been added to the Skill
stream, and within this to the ‘Skilled Independent’, ‘Skilled Regional’ and ‘State/Territory
Nominated’ categories, with some extra places for the ‘Employer Sponsored’
category as well. Places in the ‘Business Innovation and Investment’ and ‘Global
Talent’ programs have been wound back, compared with both the March 2022–23
Budget and the 2021–22 planning levels.
Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: October 2022–23 states that ‘Priority
will be given to offshore applicants and on-hand applications for the Skilled
Independent visa – New Zealand stream’ (p. 7). Some observers
have argued that prioritising visas for people outside Australia is unfair
to those already in Australia on temporary visas who may have been waiting for
long periods for their permanent application to be decided. Home Affairs
Minister Clare O’Neil had earlier
stated that the change in focus was to address the backlog of offshore
applications and assist in filling skills shortages.
The New
Zealand stream provides a pathway to permanent residence to eligible New
Zealand citizens in Australia on temporary Special Category (subclass 444)
visas (see the Parliamentary Library’s quick guide New
Zealanders in Australia for further background). Detailed visa data is
not yet available for 2021–22, but in 2020–21, a high proportion of places in
the Skilled Independent category went to the New Zealand stream: 3,319 out of
the total 7,213 places granted (Home Affairs data on data.gov.au).
The higher 2022–23 planning figure of 32,100 may help ‘make more room’ for other
nationalities.
There is also a Hong
Kong stream of the Skilled Independent visa. This was announced
in November 2021 as part of a pathway to permanent residence for eligible
Hong Kong nationals wishing to stay in Australia due to the security situation
in Hong Kong. It opened for applications in March 2022, so its impact on the
category is not yet apparent.
In the Family stream of the Migration Program, 2,500 extra
places have been allocated to Parent visas. Regarding the drop in the number of
Partner visa places compared with the 2021–22 planning level, the Department of
Home Affairs 2021–22
Annual report notes that 10,000 Family stream places (Partner visas) were
reallocated to the Skill stream (p. 99). This reallocation was noted in the
March Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: 2022–23 as being due to a ‘sharp
fall’ in the number of on-hand applications for Partner visas (p. 11; see also
the Library’s March Budget review 2022–23 article ‘Immigration’).
Pacific Engagement Visa
The Pacific Engagement Visa was announced as an election
commitment in Labor’s
plan to build a stronger Pacific family. This document stated that the
initiative would ‘have no budget impact as the new migration places will come
from within the existing migration program’. However, the Pacific Engagement
Visa measure in Budget paper no. 2 (p. 150) provides $175.1 million
over 4 years from 2022–23 (and $80.3 million per year ongoing from
2026–27), with the 3,000 annual permanent migration places to be in addition
to the Migration Program planning level. The measure is forecast to
increase tax revenue by $55 million over the forward estimates.
This new visa, to commence in July 2023, will be a
significant shift within existing Australian visa settings for a number of
reasons:
- Few visas, particularly permanent visas, are targeted at specific
nationalities (the specific streams of the Skilled Independent visa noted above
being an exception). The Pacific Engagement Visa will be open to citizens of Pacific
Island countries and Timor-Leste.
-
While applicants will need to have a job offer, it appears the
visa eligibility criteria will not include skill-level or occupation
requirements.
-
There will be a ballot system to select applicants each year,
which is similar to the New
Zealand Pacific Access Category, on which the new visa is modelled.
The program is therefore not primarily intended to fill labour
market gaps (though participation via a job offer is evidently a key element),
but aims to ‘build our people-to-people links’, as stated
in August by the Minister for International Development and the Pacific,
Pat Conroy. Considering the creation of ‘a dedicated Pacific component within
Australia’s permanent migration intake’ was a recommendation of the Joint
Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade’s report on Strengthening
Australia’s relationships in the Pacific (p. 99). Observers, including the
Development Policy Centre at the Australian National University, have noted
the program announcement’s positive reception and analysed
some of the implications for migration and international relations.
Additional measures responding to
election commitments and previous announcements
The Additional Assistance to Ukraine measure provides $0.6 million
for the Ukrainian Community and Settlement Support Program for the 2022–23 year
(Budget paper no. 2, p. 85), in addition to the $0.5 million for
the 2021–22 year provided in the March 2022–23 Budget (March Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: 2022–23, p. 70). The measure also
provides new funding of $18.4 million over 4 years from 2022–23 for Temporary
Humanitarian Concern (subclass 786) visas for Ukrainians, and provides access
to Medicare for Ukrainians and immediate family members holding a Bridging Visa
E. While the granting of Temporary Humanitarian Concern visas to Ukrainians was
mentioned in the March 2022–23 Budget, no funding was allocated at that point
(noting that the Russian invasion of Ukraine began on 24 February 2022).
The cross-portfolio measure on outcomes of the Jobs and Skills
Summit includes $42.2 million over 2 years from 2022–23 for the
Department of Home Affairs (Budget paper no. 2, p. 82). Of this, $36.1 million
was announced
at the Jobs and Skills Summit to recruit 500 new staff to increase visa
processing capacity. A media
release from Home Affairs Minister Clare O’Neil on 25 October 2022 stated
that an additional $6.2 million was allocated for ‘outreach and communications,
including an international marketing campaign to promote migration to
Australia’.
The media release from the Jobs and Skills Summit also
announced a review of the migration system, to report by February 2023 (also highlighted
in the Summit
Outcomes document, p. 4). Budget
strategy and outlook: budget paper no. 1: October 2022–23 describes the
review as a ‘Migration Strategy’ that would:
identify reforms required to ensure the migration system
serves Australia’s national interests and complements the skills and
capabilities of Australian workers. The Strategy will focus on ways to grow
Australia’s economy and attract high-skilled migrants, while also furthering
Australia’s geostrategic interests, unlocking the potential of all migrants and
providing clear pathways to permanent residency. (p. 14)
No funding is allocated in the Budget for the review.
The Home Affairs portfolio measures also include confirmation
of the following funding as per the ALP’s election commitment costings (Labor’s
plan for a better future, p. 9):
-
$20 million over 4 years from 2022–23 for the Adult Migrant
English Program
-
$1 million over 2 years from 2022–23 for a review of
multicultural policy settings (‘a Government that Works for Multicultural
Australia’).
The election commitments regarding Expanding the Pacific
Labour Scheme and Reforming the Seasonal Worker Program (Labor’s
plan for a better future, p. 13) were reconfigured following the
Coalition Government’s move to combine the 2 programs into the new Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM)
scheme. The budget measure Enhancing the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility Scheme
(Budget paper no. 2, pp. 111–112) provides $67.5 million over 4
years from 2022–23 (and $12.4 million per year ongoing from 2025–26) to
meet the adjusted commitments outlined in the PALM
policy.
Budget paper no. 2 states that savings identified
from previous budget measures have been redirected to other initiatives,
including the PALM scheme (p. 113). One of these previous measures is the
Australian Agriculture Visa measure in the Mid-year
economic and fiscal outlook 2021–22 (p. 231), which provides a redirected amount
of $90.4 million over 5 years. Relocating the Australian Agriculture Visa
into the PALM scheme (and not pursuing further arrangements under it) was also
a commitment of Labor’s
plan to build a stronger Pacific family.
Commitments yet to be fulfilled
Apart from the measures for the PALM scheme and visas for
Ukrainians noted above, there are no measures directly related to temporary
visas or refugee and humanitarian programs. Perhaps the main item in migration-related
election commitments not addressed in the Budget is the policy to abolish Temporary
Protection and Safe Haven Enterprise visas, which was costed at $407 million
over 4 years from 2022–23 (Labor’s
plan for a better future, p. 9). Advocacy
groups, members
of the crossbench and think
tanks have been
pressing the Government to act on the commitment.
The Minister for Immigration, Citizenship and Multicultural
Affairs, Andrew Giles, has recommitted to the policy, including via Twitter
on 6 September 2022, stating ‘we will keep this promise and meet our commitment
as soon as possible’.
Another policy costed in the election commitments, but not
reflected in the Budget, was increasing the Temporary Skilled Migration Income
Threshold (Labor’s
plan for a better future, p. 9). This proposal is identified in the Jobs
and Skills Summit Outcomes document as one of the ‘areas for further work’
(p. 4) along with other initiatives broadly in line with the ALP’s 2021
National Platform, such as addressing migrant worker exploitation and expanding
pathways to permanent residence for certain temporary migrant workers.
Net overseas migration and post-pandemic
recovery
The revised assumptions used in the budget papers foresee migration
returning to pre-pandemic levels more quickly than envisioned in earlier
budgets. The forecasts in Table 2 below are produced by the Centre for
Population within the Treasury, and show that net overseas migration (NOM) is
set to reach 235,000 in the current year (instead of 2024–25 as indicated in the
March 2022–23 Budget) and continue through the forward estimates.
Table 2 Net overseas
migration, for years ending 30 June
| Net
overseas migration |
2018–19 |
2019–20 |
2020–21 |
2021–22 |
2022–23 |
2023–24 |
2024–25 |
2025–26 |
| 2020–21 Budget (October) |
239,700 |
154,100 |
-71,600 |
-21,600 |
95,900 |
201,100 |
|
|
2021–22 Budget
(May) |
|
194,400 |
-96,600 |
-77,400 |
95,900 |
201,100 |
235,000 |
|
| 2022–23 Budget (March) |
|
|
-89,900 |
41,000 |
180,000 |
213,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
| 2022–23 Budget (October) |
|
|
-85,000 |
150,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
235,000 |
Source: Australian Government,
Federal Financial Relations: Budget Paper no. 3, Table A.5, various
years: 2020–21 (p. 86);
2021–22 (p. 104);
2022–23 (p. 114);
October 2022–23
(p. 108).
NOM is the difference between arrivals to Australia and
departures from Australia. Migrant arrivals to Australia are counted in NOM if
they are in Australia for a total of 12 months or more during a 16-month
period. This parameter is not the same as overseas arrivals to Australia or the
number of places available in the permanent Migration Program; however, arrivals
and migration planning levels may influence NOM in different ways.
Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicates
that although arrivals in September 2022 were still well below the pre-pandemic
levels (just over 1 million, compared with over 1.7 million in
September 2019), the levels have increased substantially since the re-opening
of borders in February 2022 (ABS, Overseas
arrivals and departures, Australia, August 2022, graphs 1.1 and
1.3).
Population growth is also forecast to be higher than
indicated in the March 2022–23 Budget: 1.1% in 2021–22 and 1.4% in 2022–23 and
2023–24, instead of 0.7% in 2021–22, 1.2% in 2022–23 and 1.3% in 2023–24 (Budget
strategy and outlook: budget paper no. 1: 2022–23, p. 37; Budget
strategy and outlook: budget paper no. 1: October 2022–23, p. 47).
Migration is one of the Budget’s key receipts measures: increasing
the Migration Program by 35,000 places in 2022–23 is estimated to increase
receipts by $935 million over 4 years from 2022–23 (largely through higher
personal income tax receipts), while payments (including for migrant services) will
increase by $487.2 million (Budget paper no. 1, pp. 89; 155). It is
not explicitly stated whether the Government intends to maintain the Migration
Program at the higher level of 195,000 places in future years. See also pages
66–67 of Budget paper no. 1 for more detail on the role of migration and
population in GDP and medium-term economic projections.
All online articles accessed October 2022