The Future Made in
Australia package is focussed on promoting mineral processing and refining and
manufacturing clean energy technologies (Budget
strategy and outlook: budget paper no. 1: 2024–25, pp. 18–21).
The Resourcing
Australia’s Prosperity initiative further supports the government’s push to
increase resource discovery and development and industrial
capacity for critical minerals. These moves stem from the realisation that the
global energy transition requires a fundamental shift away from fossil fuel energy
sources and an increased reliance on a range of critical minerals and their
products. As noted in the March
2024 Resources and Energy Quarterly, the global transition ‘will see increased demand for
commodities used in low emission technologies (for example, iron ore,
aluminium, copper, nickel and lithium), it will reduce demand for other
commodities (such as some fossil fuels)’ (p. 4).
Critical
minerals are materials essential for modern technologies, economies, or
national security for which supply chains are exposed to risk or disruption. Strategic
minerals are important to the transition to net zero and other
technological applications, for which Australia has geological potential to
host significant resources. The key difference between critical and strategic
minerals is that strategic minerals are not exposed to significant supply chain
risks. Australia’s Critical
Minerals List identifies 31 critical minerals, while the Strategic
Minerals List identifies 5 strategic minerals.
The Critical Minerals
Strategy 2023–2030 sets out the government’s considerations in defining
Australia’s critical minerals, and examines how government can support their
development and security. Australia
produced 52% of the lithium, 10% of the manganese, 25% of the zircon, and
significant proportions of the cobalt, rare earths, and other critical minerals
in the world in 2022. In addition to mineral production, Australia hosts globally
significant resources of critical and other minerals necessary for the
global energy transition, as well as for traditional materials such as iron and
nickel for steel. Australia has a long history of mining and exporting the raw
materials needed globally. As noted in the Critical
Minerals Strategy, ‘Australia is well placed to support diverse, resilient
and sustainable supply chains. But these will not come about unless
governments, communities and industry work together’ (p. 12). Fostering
investment in developing Australia’s mineral resources, and incentivising commodities
critical to the energy transition are a means of shoring up supply, both for
the domestic market, and for key trade partners.
The government has taken the view that ‘Growing
the [critical minerals] sector and moving into downstream processing, where
we can do so competitively, will capture more value, economic benefits and jobs
in Australia while boosting our sovereign capability’ (p 12). Despite Australia’s
well-documented success in generating revenue from exporting raw materials, moving
into downstream processing and manufacturing, and how that might affect the
broader economy, is less certain.
Mineral processing and industrial manufacturing are often
associated with significant environmental impacts and greenhouse gas emissions.
Increasing industrial and manufacturing activity is also likely to affect
Australia’s energy supply and demand profile, with associated greenhouse gas emissions
and environmental impacts (for example, IEA
2023 report, p. 11). Careful planning, management, and monitoring will
be necessary to ensure that such activities do not increase Australia’s
emissions, or worsen environmental impacts, and to inform policy considerations
for the Future Made in Australia package.
Geoscience Australia’s role
Geoscience Australia (GA)
provides precompetitive geoscience; that is data, information, tools and
expertise to help industry identify high potential areas for mineral and energy
resources. It is a non-corporate Commonwealth entity. GA’s focus is shifting
from more traditional commodities, such as offshore oil and gas, gold, copper
and iron, to critical and strategic minerals in line with the Critical Minerals
Strategy 2023–2030. Discovering and developing these resources underpins value-adding
in renewable hydrogen, green metals, critical minerals, and clean energy
manufacturing (A future
made in Australia, budget 2024–25 factsheet, pp. 2–3). The government
stated, ‘We’ll
deploy Australia’s top geoscientists to fully map Australian resources that
will power our future, help us make more here at home, and create good secure
jobs now and for the next generation’ (p. 1).
The Budget positions GA at the centre of Australia’s
transition to net zero and provides significant new funding. This includes:
-
$566.1 million over 10 years, and then an average of $111.8 million
per year in ongoing funding over 35 years to 2058–59 to GA for the Resourcing
Australia’s Prosperity (RAP) program, as part of the ‘Future made in Australia
– investing in innovation, science and digital capabilities’ measure (Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: 2024–25, p. 66). This ongoing
funding is committed to beyond 2050, the year legislated as Australia’s target
for reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions.
-
$207.4 million over 5 years, and $38.2 million
ongoing for the Landsat Next Satellite Earth Observation program (Portfolio
budget statements 2024–25: budget related paper no. 1.11: Industry,
Science and Resources portfolio, p. 131). This program is
part of the ‘Future made in Australia – investing in innovation, science
and digital capabilities’ measure (Budget
paper no. 2, p. 66). The program will continue GA’s
access to earth observation data and imaging from NASA’s Landsat satellites in
the next generation of the program (Landsat Next).[1]
-
$16.6 million funding over 3 years for GA under the ‘Future
made in Australia – making Australia a renewable energy superpower’ measure to
support the design and development of the critical minerals production tax
incentive and to establish an independent mineral testing function (PBS
2024–25: Industry, Science and Resources, p. 131). How
government provides industry support, including production incentives, is
contested. Broader considerations are discussed in the Budget review 2024–25
article ‘New
industrial policy: a Future Made in Australia’.
The Budget’s provision of long-term funding for GA provides
a clear statement on the entity’s importance and future following a history of
specific time‑limited and supplementary funding. These measures are
accompanied by a 15.8% increase in GA’s average staffing level (ASL) from 652 to 755
in 2024–25 (Agency
resourcing: budget paper no. 4: 2024–25, p. 177). How the increased
funding will affect longer term staffing at GA remains to be seen.
Resourcing Australia’s prosperity
(RAP)
The RAP program was announced
on 8 May 2024 by the Prime Minister and the Minister for Resources,
with this ‘long-term investment, led by Geoscience Australia, underscor[ing]
the government’s plan to put the resources industry at the heart of its Future
Made in Australia policy.’ The RAP program will collect data and carry out
geoscience research to ‘map
Australia’s national groundwater systems and resource endowments to
increase industry investment and identify potential discoveries of all current
critical minerals and strategic materials’ (p. 66) and commit GA to the ‘full
mapping of Australia over the next generation’. The RAP program reshapes
and extends GA’s Exploring for the
Future (EFTF) program which was otherwise ending. EFTF was an 8‑year,
$225 million program focused on precompetitive geoscience data acquisition
and information discovery provided for in 2 tranches, in the 2016–17
(p. 129) and 2020–21
(p. 258) budgets. While the EFTF program focussed on specific regions of
the country or particular resource types, the RAP aims to cover the whole
country for a broader range of resources. The RAP also dovetails with the Critical Minerals
Strategy 2023–2030 and the carbon capture and storage (CCS) and hydrogen
aspects of the Future
Gas Strategy.
Under the RAP program, GA
will work with regional communities, landholders and First Nations to help
them understand and manage their land and water resources (p. 2). This
information will also help inform them about the potential for mining projects (p. 2).
RAP will include mapping mineral occurrences and
prospectivity to identify potential new
deposits of critical minerals and strategic materials needed for clean
energy and its technology, as well as traditional minerals like iron ore and
gold (p. 1). Another key activity is to identify potential storage sites
for hydrogen (p. 1). The program will lead to ‘a
deeper understanding of the resource potential of our regions by mapping
out all of Australia’s groundwater systems, supporting climate resilience, our
agricultural sector, and water security for communities and the environment’
(p. 2). GA will map offshore areas to better understand the potential for offshore
‘carbon capture and storage, as well as possible sites for clean hydrogen
projects’ (p. 2).
Reaction to the Budget
The resources sector has welcomed
these announcements (pp. 2–3). In pre-budget
submissions, the Minerals
Council of Australia, Association
of Mining Exploration Companies, and Australian
Energy Producers all called for increased funding for GA to
deliver precompetitive geoscience and improved earth and environmental data.
Science
and Technology Australia supports the RAP program, noting, ‘These are positive first steps towards
diversifying our economy’ (p. 2). The Australian Academy of Science noted RAP as
one of ‘several key investments in recognition of the value that science brings
to the nation’ (p. 2).
Some concerns have been reported
that the RAP program is support for the gas
industry and gasfield
development that is contrary to the government’s
climate and emissions goals. The Future Gas Strategy ‘makes
it clear that gas will remain an important source
of energy through to 2050 and beyond, and its uses will change as we improve
industrial energy efficiency, firm renewables, and reduce emissions’ (p. 2).
Under the strategy, Minister King argues that continued
gas use is a necessary part of the transition to net zero and that technologies including CCS is required for ongoing gas use and new gasfield development if emissions
are to be reduced in line with the Safeguard Mechanism.
More broadly, the International
Energy Agency (IEA) has stated ‘There is no need
for investment in new fossil fuel supply‘ (p. 21), including new gasfield developments, in their pathways to
transition to net zero by 2050, noting that ‘each country will need to design
its own strategy, taking into account its specific circumstances’ (p. 4). The IEA also recognises that CCS is part of a
vital suite of technologies required to meet net
zero by 2050 (p. 79), and that government investment is necessary to
accelerate innovation in CCS (p. 16).
Geoscience Australia – value of
public good data and information
GA makes all data
and information available to the public, as well as to the resources
industry. It is a custodian and steward of Australia’s geoscience data, as
discussed in GA’s
submission to the Productivity
Commission’s inquiry into data availability and use during 2016. GA’s
activities are broader than mineral resource activities, providing data,
information and advice on natural hazards, positioning, community safety,
environmental science and monitoring, and water.
Deloitte
Access Economics stated, ‘precompetitive geoscience data and analysis is
also used for soil mapping, natural hazard assessment, groundwater
identification, forensics, defence, ecology, research, and informing land use
decisions’ (p. 11).
The data and information that GA collects, manages, and
makes available allows government, industry, and the public to make informed
decisions about resource
exploration, water resource
management, environmental management, marine jurisdiction
management, infrastructure
planning, agricultural
planning and land management, the insurance
industry, and emergency
management. GA also plays an important role in geoscience education, hosting
‘7,986 school students across 213 school visits and 3,197 students
across 12 virtual engagements’ in 2022–23.[2]
In fulfilling these broad functions, GA collaborates with federal
and state government agencies, including the Australian
Antarctic Division, Bureau of Meteorology,
CSIRO,
the Department
of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, Murray-Darling
Basin Authority, National Water Grid
Authority, among others.
Deloitte
Access Economics
found that ‘precompetitive geoscience data and analysis supported
$76 billion of value added in the Australian economy’ (p. 3). They
noted:
… due to the long timelines associated with resource
discovery and development, the benefits generated by precompetitive geoscience
data and analysis are often realised years after its public release. As such,
it is difficult – near impossible – to attribute a single year of
precompetitive geoscience data and analysis activity to a resultant year of
economic activity. [p. 4].
Deloitte
also found that the nascent hydrogen industry has benefitted from GA’s
precompetitive work through savings in due diligence and stimulated economic
activity from exploration (p. 7).
The benefit of public geoscience is also not limited to the
resources sector. Alluvium
found that it was likely that groundwater projects provided benefits
‘significant enough to generate a positive return on investment’ (pp. 17
and 28). Other examples of the value of public geoscience are provided by
GA’s ‘Value to the nation’
webpage.
All online articles accessed May 2024