Net overseas migration and
migration planning levels
The budget papers provide forecasts for net overseas
migration (NOM), with the figure expected to decline from the outcome of
528,000 in 2022–23 to 395,000 in 2023–24 and 260,000 in 2024–25 (Federal
financial relations: budget paper no. 3: 2024–25, p. 130).
NOM is the difference between arrivals to Australia and
departures from Australia and includes both migrants and Australians. Migrant
arrivals to Australia are counted in NOM if they are in Australia for a total
of 12 months or more during a 16-month period. The forecasts for NOM are
produced by the Centre for Population within
the Treasury, and outcomes are calculated by the Australian
Bureau of Statistics. Outcomes figures are revised as the ABS updates its
calculations of arrivals and departures over the relevant 12-out-of-16-month period
– the figure of 518,000 for 2022–23 in its December release has since been
updated to 528,000.
NOM differs from the number of places available in the
permanent Migration Program. NOM includes both permanent and temporary migrants
(including New
Zealand citizens) as well as Australians entering and leaving Australia.
The Migration
Program is decided by the government each year and sets the number of permanent
visas to be granted across Skill, Family and the small Special Eligibility
categories (not including the Humanitarian
Program).
Many people granted visas in the permanent Migration Program
are already in Australia at the time of visa grant, and will already have been
counted in NOM. The Department of Home Affairs’ 2022–23
Migration Program report shows that over the 11 years to 2022–23, as an
average of the annual proportions, 60% of Skill stream visas and 42% of Family
stream visas were granted to people who had applied in Australia rather than
overseas (Parliamentary Library calculations based on pp. 26–27; proportions
were higher during the COVID‑19 pandemic when travel restrictions
prevented many new migrants from coming to Australia).
People in Australia who are granted permanent visas will
have entered on a temporary visa. Temporary visa holders are the largest
contributing group to migrant
arrivals, and most temporary visa categories are demand-driven (not
capped). International students are the largest group of migrant arrivals,
accounting for some 283,000 out of 737,000 arrivals in 2022–23. The government
is proposing to limit the numbers of international students by legislating
to provide the Minister for Education with the power to determine caps for
international students for an institution, location or course – refer to the Budget
review 2024–25 article ‘Australian Universities Accord’.
Due to the impact of travel restrictions during the COVID‑19
pandemic, NOM
was negative in 2020–21 (‑85,000). Migration patterns have not yet
returned to a pre-pandemic pattern, with the Centre
for Population noting that flows of temporary migrants in particular are reflecting
a ‘catch-up’ trend. Because there are more recent temporary migrants, there are
also fewer migrants departing. The ABS
predicts that:
Many of those now arriving on temporary visas however, such
as international students, will start to leave as their studies finish over the
coming years, which will have a downward impact on net overseas migration in
the future.
The forecasts in the budget papers project that NOM will return
to the historical trend of 235,000 by 2026–27 (Budget paper no. 3, p.
130).
Debate continues over planning for migration levels, with
post Budget media
reports citing
a range of experts debating how migration policies may or may not influence
NOM, economic growth and housing shortages. The Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in
his Budget
in reply speech announced a Coalition policy to cut the permanent Migration
Program by 25% to 140,000 places for each of the first 2 years of its
prospective term of government, before increasing it to 150,000 and 160,000
places in subsequent years.
Implementing the Migration Strategy
The government released its Migration
strategy: getting migration working for the nation (the
Migration Strategy) in December 2023. The Migration Strategy was developed in
response to the Review
of the migration system (the Migration Review, also known as the
Parkinson Review), released in March 2023.
The 2024–25 Budget contains measures to continue the
implementation of the 5 core objectives and 8 key actions as set out in
the Migration Strategy (pp. 12–13) and to respond to the recommendations of the
Rapid
review into the exploitation of Australia’s visa system (the Nixon
Review) presented to the government in March 2023. A range of resourcing
measures to support the new initiatives and the ongoing work of the Department
of Home Affairs are also provided for. Other elements of the Migration Strategy
are still in development, with the government’s action
plan for the strategy giving indicative timeframes for implementation
throughout 2024.
Migration Program
The Migration Strategy committed to a multi-year planning
model for the permanent Migration Program (pp. 79–80). As noted above, Migration
Program planning figures are currently set each year and the overall level is
announced as part of the Budget. A breakdown
of the allocations to visa categories, as well as nomination allocations for
applicable visas to state and territories, is published on the Home Affairs
website. The budget measure ‘Permanent Migration Program – 2024–25 planning
levels and multi-year planning’ (Budget
measures: budget paper no. 2: 2024–25, p. 8) states that multi-year
planning will take effect from 2025–26 and will extend over a timeframe of 4
years.
The planning
level for 2024–25 is 185,000 places, a slight decrease from the 2023–24
level of 190,000 which was in turn a slight decrease from the 2022–23 level of
195,000 (The
administration of the immigration and citizenship programs, 11th edition,
p. 24). The budget measure is expected to reduce both receipts (by $70.0
million) and payments (by $102.7 million) over the forward estimates (Budget
paper no. 2, p. 8). The reduction in revenue is largely due to reduced
taxation from fewer migrants, but it would also be expected that there would be
fewer migrants accessing certain government services. In addition, the measure
states that the multi-year planning model ‘will enable better cross-government
planning in the future’ (p. 8), perhaps resulting in efficiencies.
With the multi-year model not due to begin until 2025–26,
the budget measure does not give any detail on how this will be implemented.
The Migration Strategy stated that the new model will be designed and managed
in consultation with the states and territories through an annual Ministerial
Migration Roundtable in order to give them:
… a greater role in determining their migration needs,
especially in the regions, and demonstrate the commitment of governments at all
levels to planning in the national interest and to supporting cohesive policy
efforts. (p. 80)
Possible models for multi-year planning include Canada’s Immigration
Levels Plan, under which permanent resident admissions targets for the
forthcoming 3 years are planned on a rolling basis, with the ‘notional targets’
beyond the first year to be ‘confirmed or adjusted by November 1 of each year’.
The Canadian Government conducts annual consultations on the planning levels. The
2024
round of consultations includes a proposal to include temporary resident
arrivals in the plan as well as permanent resident admissions.
Migrant workers and skills
Budget
paper no. 2 notes that the Migration Program allocates about 70% of
places to the Skill stream for 2024–25 (p. 8). This is broadly consistent with recent
years, except for during the COVID-19 pandemic when places were more orientated
to the Family stream (see the Budget review 2023–24 article ‘Immigration’).
The ‘Migration system reforms’ budget measure (Budget
paper no. 2, p. 136) covers a number of initiatives relating to migrant
workers drawing on the Migration Strategy but stemming from earlier reviews and
recommendations.
In February 2024, parliament passed the Migration
Amendment (Strengthening Employer Compliance) Act 2024, which
implemented a number of measures aimed at protecting temporary migrant workers
from exploitation, including through implementing recommendations 19 and 20 of
the 2019 Report
of the Migrant Workers’ Taskforce which target employers of migrant
workers. The legislation was part of a package of measures on migrant worker
exploitation announced
in June 2023 and built upon in the Migration Strategy. Key action 4 of the
Migration Strategy on ‘tackling worker exploitation and the misuse of the visa
system’ (pp. 72–77) included an item on ‘helping migrants understand their
workplace rights to reduce worker exploitation’. The budget measure provides $15.0
million over 3 years from 2024–25 for information and education activities
to progress this item.
The Mid-year
economic and fiscal outlook 2023–24 had already provided a number of
measures, including additional resourcing for the Department of Home Affairs
and other agencies, for ‘Migration system integrity’ and ‘Migration system reforms’
(pp. 271–273). The ‘Migration system integrity’ measure included $10.2 million
over 4 years from 2023–24 to enhance the investigative capacity of the Office
of the Migration Agents Registration Authority (p. 271). The Migration
Strategy included a commitment on ‘better regulated migration agents to crack
down on unscrupulous activity’ (p. 75), a response to the Nixon
Review’s findings on exploitative behaviour by migration agents (pp.
10–14).
A recent Australian
National Audit Office report found that the Department of Home Affairs’ regulation
of migration agents ‘is not effective’ (p. 8), suggesting further reform is
necessary. The report’s recommendations centre around the department improving
its planning and strategic processes and making greater use of the powers
provided to it by the Migration Act
1958.
The Migration Strategy flagged development of a new
‘innovation’ visa (p. 59), which it suggested would replace both the existing Global
Talent visa – which provides a small number of migration places for very
highly skilled and talented migrants – and the Business
Innovation and Investment visa program (BIIP). The budget measure
‘Migration system reforms’ includes $1.4 million in 2024–25 to close the BIIP
and implement a new National Innovation visa ‘to target exceptionally talented
migrants who will drive growth in sectors of national importance’ (Budget
paper no. 2, p. 136).
While some stakeholders
in the financial sector have been supportive of
the BIIP, in particular the Significant Investor stream, criticism of the
effectiveness of the program has been sustained over a number of years. In
2016, the Productivity
Commission found that:
Some components of the Business Innovation and Investment
Programme (BIIP) contribute to economic activity, but there is no evidence to
suggest it is greater than other programs. Moreover, the BIIP does not appear
to achieve its trade and innovation goals. (p. 435)
A Grattan
Institute report in 2022 compared the BIIP with other categories in the
permanent skilled migration program on factors including earnings, age, and
skills and qualifications. It drew on Treasury modelling to show that ‘on
average, each BIIP visa-holder costs the Australian taxpayer $120,000 over
their lifetimes because they tend to be older when they arrive here and earn
much less than other skilled migrants’ (p. 51). The report recommended
abolishing the BIIP in favour of allocating more places to other skilled visas
in the Migration Program (p. 52). The Migration
Review noted these findings and recommended reconsidering the BIIP’s
settings, potentially retaining some elements of the Significant Investor stream
(p. 64–66).
Given the lead-up to the budget announcement, the business
and investment sector has likely been prepared for the closure of the BIIP. The
Migration Strategy had noted that pending development of the new innovation visa,
‘the Government will not provide any new allocations for the BIIP visa’ (p. 59).
Allocations of migration places to the BIIP have been significantly reduced in recent
years – 1,900 places were allocated in 2023–24, down from 5,000 the year before
and down from a pandemic-era high of 13,500 places prior to that (The
administration of the immigration and citizenship programs, 11th edition,
p. 24).
All online articles accessed May 2024