A by-election for the federal electoral division of will occur on Saturday 2 March 2024. The seat has been vacant since 4 December, following the death of Peta Murphy MP. This Flagpost article provides details of the by-election process, and context regarding previous by-elections.
Dunkley is situated on Victoria’s Mornington Peninsula, centred on the town of Frankston. Ms Murphy won the seat for the Australian Labor Party in 2019 and retained it in 2022, with a margin of 6.3 per cent. The boundaries at the upcoming by-election are the same as in 2022.
The timeline for the by-election is as follows:
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Event
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Date
|
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Issue of writ
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Monday 29 January 2024
|
|
Close of rolls
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Monday 5 February 2024
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Close of nominations
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Thursday 8 February 2024
|
|
Declaration of nominations
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Friday 9 February 2024
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|
Date of polling
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Saturday 2 March 2024
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Return of writ
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On or before Wednesday 8 May 2024
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This will be the 163rd federal by-election in Australia’s history, and the third since the 2022 federal election. The most-recent by-election occurred on 15 July 2023, when Cameron Caldwell was elected as the Member for Fadden, following Stuart Robert’s resignation on 18 May 2023
In most by-elections the incumbent party is returned, as shown in the table below. However, last year’s by-election in Aston bucked this trend, with the ALP winning the seat over the incumbent Liberal Party. This was particularly notable as only the second time since Federation (and first in more than 100 years) that a Government has taken a seat from the Opposition.
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Reason for by-election
|
Total
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Incumbent party
elected
|
Other party/
independent elected
|
|
Incumbent died
|
67
|
52
|
15
|
|
Resigned
|
88
|
68
|
20
|
|
Election declared void
|
5
|
2
|
3
|
|
Incumbent expelled
|
1
|
0
|
1
|
|
Presumed dead
|
1
|
1
|
0
|
|
Total
|
162
|
123
|
39
|
Until the 1970s, the majority of by-elections occurred due to the death of a sitting Member. However, in the last 50 years resignation has become the much more frequent cause, heightened by the spike in eligibility-related by-elections in 2017 and 2018. In total, 41 per cent of by-elections have been a result of death and 50 per cent due to resignation. There have only been single by-election instances resulting from an MP’s expulsion (Hugh Mahon in 1920), and ‘presumed death’ (Prime Minister Harold Holt in 1967). Regardless of the reason for the by-election, the incumbent party is returned at a similar rate (around 77 per cent).
Section 33 of the Constitution empowers the Speaker of the House of Representatives to issue writs for the election of a new Member. The Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 specifies that the election (polling day) must be held between 33 and 68 days from the date the writ is issued. By convention, by-elections are called as soon as practicable following a seat becoming vacant. However, the Speaker has some discretion in selecting dates, for instance to avoid a by-election very close to a general election, or to hold simultaneous by-elections where possible.