Introduction

The 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue, held from 31 May to 2 June 2024 amidst heightened regional tensions, provided an important Track 1.5 forum for Indo-Pacific leaders to address the security challenges confronting the region. The dialogue discussed the significance of upholding international law, inclusive multilateralism and bolstering regional institutions to navigate great power dynamics and regional security concerns.

The US-China strategic competition

Perhaps not surprisingly, US-China tensions took centre stage. Tensions have transcended traditional domains, extending beyond conventional defence and security issues to encompass trade, technology and non-traditional security challenges.

US and China perspectives presented at the dialogue focused on the competing interests and contrasting worldviews shaping the Indo-Pacific security landscape. US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin reaffirmed the US commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific, stressing the importance of international law and maintaining freedom of navigation and overflight. He criticised China’s actions in the South China Sea as destabilising and called for sustained dialogue to manage differences and prevent miscalculations. In his keynote speech, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr commented that China’s actions in the South China Sea are ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive’. He strongly welcomed the US presence in maintaining regional stability.

The Chinese Defence Minister, General Dong Jun, dismissed accusations of China’s assertiveness and accused the US of pursuing a ‘Cold War mentality’ and attempting to contain China’s rise. Dong defended China’s actions in the South China Sea as necessary to safeguard its sovereignty and security interests, while urging respect for the diversity of political systems and development paths chosen by different countries. Regarding recent military exercises by China around Taiwan, Dong warned against Taiwan’s pursuit of independence, stating that those supporting it would face ‘self-destruction’.

Despite heightened tensions and rhetoric, Austin’s meeting with Dong Jun, their first in-person interaction, marked an important step. The 2 policymakers agreed to reopen military hotlines to prevent tensions from escalating into conflict and Austin noted, ‘War or a fight with China is neither imminent, in my view, or unavoidable’.

Global and emerging challenges

The dialogue was also a platform for regional leaders to address other global and regional security issues, including the conflict in Gaza, the situation in Ukraine and the Myanmar crisis. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise visit to the conference, seeking support from Asian nations for the June peace summit in Switzerland.

Indonesian President-elect Prabowo Subianto expressed Indonesia’s willingness to deploy peacekeeping forces in support of a ceasefire in Gaza, and to provide humanitarian assistance if requested by the UN. Reiterating the ASEAN consensus, he called for a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and a two-state solution.

ASEAN members since 2021 have supported its Five Point Consensus aimed at ending the conflict in Myanmar. However, there are growing concerns about the slow pace of implementing it. In a special session dedicated to discussing the Myanmar crisis, Igor Driesmans, the European Union special envoy for Myanmar, noted China’s multifaceted interests in Myanmar but warned against partial solutions and partial ceasefires that could create further complications.

The dialogue discussed the role of emerging technologies and cybersecurity in the evolving security landscape. NATO Military Committee Chair Admiral Rob Bauer noted the importance of dialogue in conflict prevention, the complex nature of modern warfare and the potential for autonomous decision-making in military organisations. President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, Mirjana Spoljaric Egger, advocated for a human-centred approach to the development and use of new warfare technologies and a new treaty to regulate autonomous weapons systems and AI in military decision-making. In short, there was recognition of the transformative impact of AI on defence and security, but participants also called for guidelines and international cooperation to manage the application of AI.

Climate change emerged as a significant topic, with speakers addressing its impact on regional security and stability. New Zealand’s Defence Minister, Judith Collins, identified climate change as the primary security challenge for Pacific Island countries, while Canada’s Defence Minister, Bill Blair, discussed its implications for the Arctic and the Indo-Pacific. The dialogue also called for coordinated global action to address climate-related disasters and their impact on humanitarian operations.

Middle-power perspectives on Indo-Pacific security

Speeches by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Indonesia’s President-elect Prabowo Subianto offered a regional perspective on the security landscape. Both leaders championed ASEAN centrality, peaceful dispute resolution and the role of middle powers in shaping a stable, rules-based Indo-Pacific order.

In acknowledging the complexities of the Taiwan and South China Sea issues, Singaporean Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen emphasised the importance of avoiding conflict in Asia, citing the cost of aggression and uncertainty caused by the ongoing wars in Ukraine and Gaza. Drawing on past statements by US and Chinese leaders, he suggested an alternative narrative to the great power rivalry, focusing on competition, rather than confrontation, to manage escalations in both security and trade.

Australia’s Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister, Richard Marles, re-affirmed Australia’s commitment to working with regional partners to uphold a rules-based order and address shared security challenges. Marles highlighted the importance of ASEAN centrality and the need for all countries to respect international law, particularly in the context of the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait disputes. He also drew attention to Australia’s efforts to deepen its alliance with the US and expand defence cooperation with Southeast Asian countries.

The Australian Government has frequently confirmed its approach to Indo-Pacific collective security based on its commitment to upholding international law, promoting inclusive multilateralism and maintaining a stable and prosperous regional order. It has pursued a proactive defence engagement strategy aimed at strengthening partnerships with like-minded countries and building regional resilience against transnational threats. This has involved deepening bilateral defence ties with the US, Japan and India, as well as expanding defence cooperation with Southeast Asian countries and Pacific Island nations.

Despite the diverse viewpoints expressed at the dialogue by the US, China, Australia and regional leaders, there are common threads across the remarks. Firstly, adherence to international law and peaceful dispute resolution mechanisms is crucial to managing competing territorial claims and maintaining regional stability. Secondly, strengthening regional institutions such as ASEAN and ASEAN Defence Ministers' Meeting Plus may help reduce great power competition and ensure a balanced regional order. And rather than being forced to choose sides in great power rivalries, Indo-Pacific countries would benefit instead from focusing on maintaining strategic autonomy and pursuing their national interests through diversified partnerships. Finally, ongoing engagement in bilateral dialogues and confidence-building measures is essential to managing tensions, preventing miscalculations and fostering cooperation.