Outcome:	1. Environment		Question No: 1
Sub-outcome:	Protection, wise use, understanding and enjoyment of the Great Barrier Reef
Division/Agency:	Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority
Topic: 	Coral Bleaching
Hansard Page ECITA:		Written question on notice

Senator Allison asked:

Could the government provide an indication of the extent to which GBRMPA is expecting the Great Barrier Reef will suffer bleaching this year?

Answer:

Current (mid-December) conditions suggest that there is moderate risk 
of a coral bleaching event on the Great Barrier Reef this summer.

The risk of coral bleaching is determined by sea temperature, which is controlled by a number of oceanographic and climatic factors that act at regional and local scales. Knowledge about these factors and how they interact to affect sea temperatures on the Great Barrier Reef is rapidly developing, but the feasibility of developing accurate forecasts is still being explored. The GBRMPA is collaborating with the Bureau of Meteorology, CSIRO and AIMS to develop a system to accurately predict the likelihood and severity of bleaching events. 

However, a general indication of the risk of bleaching for the coming summer can be obtained from regional climate indictors such as the 
El Niño Southern Oscillation index and long range seasonal forecasts by the Bureau of Meteorology. Mild El Niño conditions are being reported, which are expected to lead to a drier-than average summer, and therefore lower cloud cover and increased heating, for northern and north-eastern Australia. A weakening of the trade winds has also been observed in the western Pacific, which has been shown to be a possible precursor to coral bleaching conditions.