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Possible Electoral Redistributions During the 38th Parliament
Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
Main Features
- A redistribution in Western Australia will commence in May
1996.
- Redistributions in New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania
scheduled for early 1999 are likely to be deferred.
- Redistributions in Queensland and the ACT are likely to be
held in early 1997, with Queensland gaining an additional seat and the
ACT losing a seat in the House of Representatives.
Introduction
Section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) sets out the conditions
for electoral redistribution. Briefly these are
- Passage of time - a redistribution must be held in a State of Territory
at least every seven years.
- Equality of Divisions - a redistribution must be held if the number
of electors in more than one third of the Divisions in a State or Territory
deviates from the average enrolment in that State or Territory by over
ten per cent for three consecutive months.
- Representation entitlement - a redistribution must be held if the
number of Members of the House of Representatives to which a State or
Territory is entitled has changed.
Passage of Time
Table 1 sets out the dates of the most recent electoral redistributions
held in each State and the ACT and the date of the next scheduled redistribution
under this provision.
Table 1 Electoral Redistribution Dates
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Most Recent Next Scheduled
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New South Wales 31 January 1992 January 1999
Victoria 20 December 1994 December 2001
Queensland 1 December 1994 December 2001
South Australia 17 January 1992 January 1999
Western Australia 31 March 1989 March 1996
Tasmania 1 April 1992 April 1999
Australian Capital Territory 30 September 1994 September 2001
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Under this provision a redistribution in Western Australia was required
to commence in March 1996. However, under sub-section 59(3) CEA a redistribution
cannot be held within one year before the date of expiry of a House of Representatives.
Thus the redistribution scheduled for March 1996 under this provision had
to be deferred till after the 1996 election. The redistribution in Western
Australia is now required to commence within 30 days after 30 April (the
day of the first sitting of the new House of Representatives).
Should the 38th Parliament serve its full term, then redistributions
in New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania scheduled under this
provision for early 1999 are likely to be deferred. The term of the 38th
Parliament will expire on 30 April 1999. Thus, redistributions scheduled
for early 1999 will have to be deferred until after the 1999 elections,
assuming that the 38th Parliament serves its full term.
Equality of Divisions
When drawing electoral boundaries, Redistribution Committees are required
to ensure that no Divisions deviate by more than ten per cent from the average
divisional enrolment at the time of the redistribution and that three years
and six months after the redistribution, no Divisions deviate by more than
two per cent from the average divisional enrolment at that time. Given the
rather strict deviation criteria, it is extremely unlikely that this provision
will trigger a redistribution during the term of the 38th Parliament.
The latest monthly enrolment figures (February 1996) show that Western
Australia is the only State where there are any Divisions that deviate
from the average divisional enrolment by ten per cent or more.
In Western Australia two Divisions, Brand and Moore, deviate by more
than ten per cent from the average. For this provision to apply in Western
Australia five Divisions would need to deviate from the average by more
than ten per cent.
Representation entitlement
During the tenth month after the first meeting of a newly elected House
of Representatives, the Electoral Commissioner ascertains the population
of the States and Territories from the Australian Statistician.
A quota is calculated by dividing the population of the six States by
twice the number of Senators from the six States. The entitlement for
each State and Territory is then determined by dividing the population
of the State or Territory by the quota. The resultant figure is rounded
to the nearest whole number. Each original State is guaranteed at least
five Members under section 24 of the Constitution.
Calculation of Entitlements
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Step 1: Population of 6 States / (2 x number of State Senators) = Quota
Step 2: Population of State / Quota = Entitlement
The following example calculates Queensland's entitlement based on September 1995
population estimates.
Step 1: 17632100 / (2 x 72) = 122445
Step 2: 3297900 / 122445 = 26.93
Rounded to the nearest whole number = 27
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The first meeting of the House of Representatives elected on 2 March
1996 took place on 30 April 1996. Thus, during February 1997, the Electoral
Commissioner will be required to ascertain the latest population figures
from the Australian Statistician.
Table 2 shows the Representational entitlements of the States and Territories
based on the latest available population statistics (September 1995).
Table 2 Representational Entitlement Based on Latest Population
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September 1995
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Population Quotas Entitlement
September 1995
'000
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New South Wales 6135.0 50.10 50
Victoria 4511.1 36.84 37
Queensland 3297.9 26.93 27
South Australia 1474.7 12.04 12
Western Australia 1740.1 14.21 14
Tasmania 473.3 3.87 5
Northern Territory 174.7 1.43 1
Australia Capital Territory 304.9 2.49 2
Six States 17632.1 148
Quota 122.4
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Representational entitlement calculations based on September 1995 population
statistics show that Queensland will gain an additional seat while the
Australian Capital Territory will lose a seat. All other States and Territories
will remain unchanged. Although the above calculations are based on the
latest available population statistics and not the statistics that will
be available in February 1997, it is doubtful that the result would be
any different from the above.
No State or Territory, apart from the ACT, is sufficiently close to
a change in entitlement from the above to suggest that population statistics
available in nine months will give a different result. However, the situation
in the ACT is less clear cut with the ACT achieving 2.49 quotas. For the
ACT to retain its existing three members, population growth in the ACT
in the next nine months will have to exceed the population growth rate
of the six States. Given recent government announcements on public sector
employment (both Commonwealth and ACT Administration) it is doubtful that
the ACT will experience population growth in excess of the six States
in the next nine months.
Given the above, electoral redistributions based on changes in representational
entitlements of the States and Territories are likely to be held early
in 1997 in Queensland and the ACT.
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