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Adaptation
Even with the most aggressive mitigation
measures, we already face inescapable changes
in climate and associated phenomena that
will occur over the next centuries as a
result of the greenhouse emissions taking
place now, and those of the past. In other
words, even if all emissions stopped immediately
(which is, of course, impossible), the global
climate would very likely continue changing
for a time. Earth's climate system is slow
to respond, and there is a lag between our
actions and the effects that they cause.
Therefore, being prepared to adapt to climate
change is prudent, even as we strive to
reduce the factors that cause it. It is
increasingly recognised that the world needs
to develop strategies for adaptation, with
effective assessment of their attendant
risks and impacts. Below, we discuss:
Adaptation
strategies
Adaptation to changes in mean climate and
climate variability can take many forms.
It can vary in its timing, scale, and nature.
In terms of timing, adaptation can occur
in anticipation of impacts, or as a reaction
to existing impacts or vulnerabilities.
In terms of scale, adaptation can be decentralised,
occurring as a dispersed, uncoordinated
and varied response at the local level by
individual businesses, householders or communities.
Or it can occur at the regional or national
level as a centralised and coordinated strategy.
In terms of nature of response, adaptation
can occur as behavioural changes, as a restructuring
of economic frameworks or policy, or as
technological changes or responses. These
different responses are not mutually exclusive,
and it is likely that all will occur to
different degrees in different places.
The following features have been identified
as being important components of an effective
adaptation strategy:
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Information flow.
In order to make informed and effective
decisions about adaptive strategies, individuals,
businesses, communities and governments
will need accurate estimates of climate
change projections and their various environmental
and socioeconomic effects. Interactive
effects and the influences of mitigation
and adaptation responses can also be estimated
and will help to guide responses. Governments
will need to ensure that appropriate information
is available to allow individual, local
or business initiatives to develop that
are tailored to specific community or
industry issues.
-
Flexibility. An effective
adaptation response will require inbuilt
flexibility to respond to new information
and changing circumstances. Risk management
approaches allow for such flexibility
through regular reviews of effectiveness
of adopted strategies and update of risks.
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Anticipatory planning.
It has been argued that the high uncertainties
inherent in projections of both climate
change and economic conditions preclude
formulation of a cost-effective adaptation
strategy. However, most analysts conclude
that delayed action will be much more
costly than anticipatory action. Investment
in climate-proofing of new infrastructure
and housing, for example, is much cheaper
than retrofitting or rebuilding later.
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Mainstreaming. Mainstreaming
is the integration of climate change issues
and responses into broader sectors such
as water resource planning, disaster management,
urban planning and coastal defence. Many
climate change adaptation measures are
synergistic with other planning and development
priorities. Responding to risks presented
by climate variability and natural disasters,
for example, can strengthen resilience
against long-term climate change.
There are many examples of adaptation measures
that have already been implemented or where
climate change has been factored into planning
and development. Such measures include upgrade
of levees and accommodation of projections
of sea level rise into coastal infrastructure
and land management and development policies;
establishment of health-watch warning systems
to give advance warning of heat waves; investment
in climate-proofing of buildings and infrastructure;
development of comprehensive risk assessment
tools within the insurance industry; and investment
in drought-proofing measures to increase water
security.
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Adaptation
in developing countries
The extent of adaptation that will occur
in different communities, regions and countries
will depend heavily on the capacity of that
community, region or country to adapt. The
reality is that developed countries, which
are together responsible for the majority
of greenhouse gas emissions to date and hence
for instigating irreversible climate change,
have a much greater capacity to adapt and
respond to the impacts of climate change than
developing countries. Furthermore, studies
indicate that adverse impacts of climate change
are likely to disproportionately affect developing
countries (for example countries with already
limited food and water resources, those subject
to extreme floods or droughts, and low-lying
coastal or island states).
Hence, the combination of lower adaptive
capacity, higher exposure and sensitivity
to adverse impacts of climate change in developing
countries means that their vulnerability is
much higher. As Ban Ki-moon, Secretary-General
of the United Nations, said in his address
to the high-level segment of the UN Climate
Change Conference in Bali in December
2007, '[t]he issue of equity is crucial. Climate
change affects us all, but it does not affect
us all equally. Those who are least able to
cope are being hit hardest. Those who have
done the least to cause the problem bear the
gravest consequences.'
The map below shows the global distribution
of vulnerability to climate change, from a
Columbia University study that combined various
models and vulnerability/resilience indicators
with the IPCC climate change projections and
emissions scenarios. The map illustrates a
disproportionate burden faced by developing
nations, and a similar story emerges from
other vulnerability studies (see also our
page on regions
most at risk).
Source: G. Yohe
et al., ‘A
synthetic assessment of the global distribution
of vulnerability to climate change from the
IPCC perspective that reflects exposure and
adaptive capacity’, Center for International
Earth Science Information Network, Columbia
University, 2006.
To address the inequity in vulnerabilities
and adaptive capacity, various international
funds have been established for adaptation
and capacity-building programs in developing
countries. At the Marrakesh Climate Change
Conference in November 2001, an agreement
was reached to assist Least Developed Countries
(LDCs) in preparing and implementing National
Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPAs)
to address their urgent and immediate needs
to adapt to climate change. The Least
Developed Countries Fund was established
for this purpose. As of October 2008, NAPAs
from 38 of the LDCs had been submitted
to the United Nations Framework Convention
on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat.
As part of the Kyoto Protocol, the Adaptation
Fund was negotiated as a 2 per cent
levy on the Clean Development Mechanism (whereby
developed countries can invest in emissions-reduction
programs in developing countries to offset
their own emissions). The details of the operation
of this fund were finalised at the Bali Climate
Change Conference in December 2007, and the
final arrangements allowing it to become operational
were approved in Poznan in December 2008.
While there are other funds for adaptation
established under the UNFCCC, the Adaptation
Fund is expected to be the largest.
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Australian
adaptation initiatives
The National
Climate Change Adaptation Framework,
endorsed by the Council of Australian Governments
(COAG) in April 2007, outlines strategies
for building capacity to adapt to climate
change and reducing vulnerability in key sectors
and regions. The framework guides action for
generating knowledge to understand and manage
climate change risks to various sectors, providing
decision-makers with information and tools
required to assess and address climate change
impacts, and facilitating implementation of
adaptation measures.
In accordance with the Adaptation Framework,
the Australian Government established the
National
Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
in 2008. The Facility will generate and synthesise
knowledge, coordinate research activities
and provide information for decision-makers
to manage the risks of climate change impacts.
In October 2008, the Australian Government
announced funding for seven Adaptation
Research Networks within the Adaptation
Research Facility. These networks will look
at the effects of climate change and identification
of adaptation strategies in the areas of terrestrial
and marine biodiversity, water resources,
settlements and infrastructure, disaster management
and emergency services, health, and socioeconomic
dimensions. A National
Adaptation Research Plan is being developed
for each theme, with one already finalised
and two in draft stage.
CSIRO's Climate
Adaptation Flagship has been established
under its National Research Flagships Program
to assess the risks and impacts of climate
change and develop adaptation strategies.
The four research themes within the Flagship
are:
Australia has committed $150 million
over three years for its 'Adaptation
to Climate Change Initiative' to address
adaptation needs in vulnerable countries,
particularly targeting Australia's neighbouring
island nations. This builds on several existing
programs under Australia's climate
change adaptation aid theme. Australia
has also made significant contributions to
the Least Developed Countries Fund to assist
Pacific Island nations and Southeast Asian
nations in preparing and implementing their
National Adaptation Programs of Action (see
Adaptation in developing
countries above).
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Further reading:
National
Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility,
an initiative of the Australian Government.
Council of Australian Governments, National
Climate Change Adaptation Framework,
2007.
Department of Climate Change, 'Adapting
to climate change', Australian Government.
Department of Climate Change, Climate Change Adaptation Programme,
Australian Government.
CSIRO, 'Climate
Adaptation Flagship'.
CSIRO, An
overview of climate change adaptation in Australian
primary industries—impacts, options
and priorities, February 2008.
CSIRO and the Sydney Coastal Councils Group,
Mapping
climate change vulnerability in the Sydney
Coastal Councils Group, 2008.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Climate change 2007—impacts, adaptation
and vulnerability, Contribution of Working
Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of
the IPCC, 'Chapter
17—Assessment of adaptation practices,
options, constraints and capacity', 2007.
United Nations Development Programme, 'Adaptation
to climate change'.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change, Climate
change—impacts, vulnerabilities and
adaptation in developing countries,
2007.
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research,
Adaptation Programme, 'Building
resilience to climate change'.
S. Huq, A. Rahman, M. Konate,
Y. Sokona and H. Reid, Mainstreaming
adaptation to climate change in least developed
countries (LDCS), International Institute
for Environment and Development, April 2003.
T. Mitchell and T. Tanner, Adapting
to climate change—challenges and opportunities
for the development community, Institute
of Development Studies, 2006.
B. Preston, R. Suppiah, I. Macadam
and J. Bathols. Climate
change in the Asia Pacific region—a
consultancy report prepared for the Climate
Change and Development Roundtable,
CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, 2006.
World Bank, East
Asia Environment Monitor 2007—adapting
to climate change, 2007.
Center for International Earth Science Information
Network, 'Global
geographical distribution of vulnerability
to climate change', Columbia University.
J. H. Matthews and T. Le Quesne,
Adapting
water to a changing climate—an overview,
WWF, 2008.
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19 November, 2010
Comments to: web.library@aph.gov.au
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19 November, 2010
by the Parliamentary Library Web Manager
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