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Experimental Unemployment Rates by Electorate
Andrew Kopras
and
Tony Kryger
Statistics Group
March Quarter 1996
Background
There is considerable interest among Members in obtaining unemployment
rate estimates by electorate. To date the only estimates available have
been those produced at the 5 yearly censuses and these are not published
till some considerable time after the conduct of the census.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes monthly labour force
estimates for around 60 labour force regions. These regions however, are
too broad to provide any useful information about electorates. The Department
of Employment, Education, Training and Youth Affairs (DEETYA) also publishes
regional labour force estimates at the more disaggregated Statistical
Local Area (SLA) level. There are more than 700 SLAs and using these as
building blocks it is possible to construct an unemployment rate estimate
for each electorate in Australia.
Methodology
DEETYA estimates are produced quarterly and are based on ABS labour
force survey and population data and Department of Social Security figures.
When DEETYA unemployment and labour force estimates by SLA are summed
to the state level they exactly equal the corresponding ABS estimates.
To construct an unemployment rate estimate for Australian electorates
based on DEETYA figures it was first necessary to allocate SLAs to electorates.
If an SLA fell wholly within an electorate there was no problem. If an
SLA overlapped two or more electorates however, the unemployment and labour
force estimates for that SLA had to be apportioned between electorates.
From the 1991 Census it is known how the population of overlapping SLAs
was distributed between electorates and this proportion was used to distribute
unemployment and labour force totals. It was then a matter of aggregating
the data for SLAs and part SLAs within electorates and calculating an
overall unemployment rate for each electorate.
The problem of SLAs that overlap two or more electorates and the crude
method of dealing with this problem (using 1991 population data as the
basis for apportioning 1996 unemployment and labour force totals between
electorates) means that unemployment rates by electorate are approximations
only and therefore should be treated with caution. For this reason
the unemployment rates contained in this Research Note have been described
as experimental.
Results
- Unemployment rates by electorate range from a low of 2.6 per cent
for Mackellar (NSW) to a high of 18.0 per cent for Wide Bay (Qld). There
is a very definite skewing of Liberal and National Party seats towards
the lower end of this unemployment rate spectrum (see below).
- Of the 10 electorates with the lowest unemployment rates, eight are
Liberal Party seats, one (Barton in NSW) is an ALP seat and the remaining
seat (Kalgoorlie in WA) is held by an independent. At the other end
of the scale, of the 10 electorates with the highest unemployment rates,
eight are held by the ALP and two are held by the National Party.
- The Liberal and National Parties hold 94 seats in the current Parliament.
Of these, 59 (or 63 per cent) have unemployment rates below the national
average of 9.2 per cent. Of the 49 seats which are held by the ALP,
only 14 (or 29 per cent) have rates below the national average.
Electoral Divisions ranked by the Estimated Unemployment Rate (per cent)
March Quarter 1996
Rank Electoral Division Party Rate Rank Electoral Division Party Rate
1 Mackellar (NSW) LIB 2.6 75 Werriwa (NSW) ALP 8.8
2 Cook (NSW) LIB 3.0 76 Fremantle (WA) ALP 9.0
3 Mitchell (NSW) LIB 3.0 77 Watson (NSW) ALP 9.1
4 Bradfield (NSW) LIB 3.1 78 Holt (Vic) ALP 9.2
5 Warringah (NSW) LIB 3.1 79 Forrest (WA) LIB 9.3
6 North Sydney (NSW) LIB 4.0 80 Moncrieff (Qld) LIB 9.3
7 Kalgoorlie (WA) IND 4.7 81 Gippsland (Vic) NP 9.4
8 Berowra (NSW) LIB 4.8 82 Bruce (Vic) ALP 9.5
9 Barton (NSW) ALP 5.0 83 Dunkley (Vic) LIB 9.5
10 Lowe (NSW) LIB 5.1 84 Parramatta (NSW) LIB 9.5
11 Ryan (Qld) LIB 5.2 85 Brisbane (Qld) ALP 9.6
12 Tangney (WA) LIB 5.3 86 Melbourne Ports (Vic) ALP 9.6
13 O'Connor (WA) LIB 5.4 87 Sturt (SA) LIB 9.6
14 Hughes (NSW) LIB 5.5 88 Blaxland (NSW) ALP 9.7
15 Kingsford-Smith (NSW) ALP 5.6 89 Franklin (Tas) ALP 9.7
16 Macquarie (NSW) LIB 5.9 90 Chifley (NSW) ALP 9.8
17 Goldstein (Vic) LIB 6.1 91 Burke (Vic) ALP 9.9
18 Aston (Vic) LIB 6.2 92 Perth (WA) ALP 9.9
19 Higgins (Vic) LIB 6.2 93 Denison (Tas) ALP 10.0
20 Pearce (WA) LIB 6.2 94 Swan (WA) LIB 10.0
21 Wentworth (NSW) LIB 6.4 95 Bass (Tas) LIB 10.3
22 Barker (SA) LIB 6.5 96 Capricornia (Qld) NP 10.3
23 Bennelong (NSW) LIB 6.5 97 Paterson (NSW) LIB 10.4
24 Hume (NSW) NP 6.5 98 Stirling (WA) LIB 10.4
25 Calare (NSW) IND 6.6 99 Ballarat (Vic) LIB 10.5
26 Deakin (Vic) LIB 6.6 100 McPherson (Qld) LIB 10.5
27 Maranoa (Qld) NP 6.7 101 Forde (Qld) LIB 10.6
28 Dickson (Qld) LIB 6.8 102 Herbert (Qld) LIB 10.6
29 Jagajaga (Vic) ALP 6.8 103 Scullin (Vic) ALP 10.6
30 La Trobe (Vic) LIB 6.9 104 Greenway (NSW) ALP 10.8
31 Casey (Vic) LIB 7.0 105 Lyne (NSW) NP 10.8
32 Lindsay (NSW) LIB 7.0 106 McMillan (Vic) LIB 10.8
33 Macarthur (NSW) LIB 7.0 107 Petrie (Qld) LIB 10.8
34 Menzies (Vic) LIB 7.0 108 Calwell (Vic) ALP 10.9
35 Sydney (NSW) ALP 7.0 109 Dobell (NSW) ALP 10.9
36 Kooyong (Vic) LIB 7.2 110 Flinders (Vic) LIB 11.0
37 Mayo (SA) LIB 7.2 111 Hindmarsh (SA) LIB 11.0
38 Riverina (NSW) NP 7.2 112 Dawson (Qld) NP 11.2
39 Curtin (WA) IND 7.3 113 Cowper (NSW) NP 11.3
40 New England (NSW) NP 7.4 114 Hunter (NSW) ALP 11.3
41 Northern Territory (NT) LIB 7.4 115 Lyons (Tas) ALP 11.3
42 Boothby (SA) LIB 7.5 116 Lalor (Vic) ALP 11.4
43 Robertson (NSW) LIB 7.5 117 Richmond (NSW) NP 11.4
44 Griffith (Qld) LIB 7.6 118 Wills (Vic) ALP 11.4
45 Leichhardt (Qld) LIB 7.6 119 Braddon (Tas) LIB 11.5
46 Parkes (NSW) NP 7.6 120 Corio (Vic) ALP 11.5
47 Banks (NSW) ALP 7.7 121 Grey (SA) LIB 11.5
48 Bowman (Qld) LIB 7.7 122 Cunningham (NSW) ALP 11.6
49 Groom (Qld) LIB 7.7 123 Adelaide (SA) LIB 11.7
50 Moreton (Qld) LIB 7.7 124 Gilmore (NSW) LIB 11.8
51 Fadden (Qld) LIB 7.8 125 Oxley (Qld) IND 11.8
52 Farrer (NSW) NP 7.8 126 Bendigo (Vic) LIB 11.9
53 McEwen (Vic) LIB 7.8 127 Canning (WA) LIB 12.0
54 Wakefield (SA) LIB 7.8 128 Melbourne (Vic) ALP 12.1
55 Corangamite (Vic) LIB 7.9 129 Kingston (SA) LIB 12.3
56 Eden-Monaro (NSW) LIB 7.9 130 Brand (WA) ALP 12.5
57 Grayndler (NSW) ALP 7.9 131 Throsby (NSW) ALP 12.6
58 Indi (Vic) LIB 7.9 132 Fisher (Qld) LIB 12.7
59 Namadgi (ACT) ALP 7.9 133 Maribyrnong (Vic) ALP 12.7
60 Mallee (Vic) NP 8.0 134 Fairfax (Qld) LIB 12.8
61 Wannon (Vic) LIB 8.0 135 Shortland (NSW) ALP 12.8
62 Lilley (Qld) LIB 8.1 136 Longman (Qld) LIB 13.0
63 Isaacs (Vic) ALP 8.2 137 Charlton (NSW) ALP 13.3
64 Murray (Vic) LIB 8.2 138 Rankin (Qld) ALP 13.5
65 Canberra (ACT) ALP 8.3 139 Bonython (SA) ALP 14.0
66 Chisholm (Vic) LIB 8.4 140 Port Adelaide (SA) ALP 14.2
67 Gwydir (NSW) NP 8.4 141 Newcastle (NSW) ALP 14.8
68 Kennedy (Qld) NP 8.5 142 Batman (Vic) ALP 15.9
69 Cowan (WA) LIB 8.6 143 Reid (NSW) ALP 16.1
70 Moore (WA) IND 8.6 144 Hinkler (Qld) NP 16.6
71 Hotham (Vic) ALP 8.7 145 Fowler (NSW) ALP 16.9
72 Makin (SA) LIB 8.7 146 Prospect (NSW) ALP 17.4
73 Page (NSW) NP 8.7 147 Gellibrand (Vic) ALP 18.0
74 Fraser (ACT) ALP 8.8 148 Wide Bay (Qld) NP 18.0
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