Appendix 6 - Methodology for projected funding for non-Government Schools

Methodology

• The following information uses private and state per capita funding trends over 1996-2000 as published in the annual National Report on Schooling (ANR) as the basis for the private and state income projections. Using these figures, the average annual per capita increases in income between 1996 and 2000 were calculated as follows:
  
  
  • Catholic education system: Private income $105.5
  • Catholic education system: State income $56.5
  • Other non-government schools: Private income $212.75
  • Other non-government schools: State income $46.0

• These figures were used to obtain per capita income estimates for 2001 to 2004. The estimates were then multiplied by enrolment projections provided by the Department of Education, Science and Training (DEST) to obtain projections of income from private and State sources.

• Commonwealth income projections are as provided by DEST in an answer to a Question on Notice in Senate committee hearings. These projections are expressed in financial years. Given that the ANR data is expressed in program (calendar) year terms, it has been assumed for the purposes of this exercise that the Commonwealth data for each financial year equates to the second calendar year, ie. 2003-04 equates to 2004.

• AGSRC projections were calculated using movements in the AGSRC from 1996 to 2002.

Projections

To compare these figures with the estimated total value of AGSRC for 2004 the following methodology was used:

• the average annual increase in AGSRC between 1996 and 2002 was $292 (Primary) and $333.8 (Secondary);
• using the above annual increases, estimated AGSRC in 2004 will be $6 241 (Primary) and $8 137 (Secondary);
• projected enrolments in the Catholic education system for 2004 are 621 631. (DEST answer to Senate Estimates Question E493, 2001-2002 Additional Senate Estimates Hearing). Using the 2000 proportions of primary and secondary enrolments in the Catholic system (per ANR 2000) gives an estimated 2004 enrolment of 347 492 (Primary) and 274 139 (Secondary).
• multiplying these figures by the projected AGSRC for 2004 gives a total projected AGSRC value of $4 399.4 million for a comparable number of students.
• projected enrolments for other non-government schools for 2004 are 441 045. (DEST answer to Senate Estimates Question E493, 2001-2002 Additional Senate Estimates Hearing). Using the 2000 proportions of primary and secondary enrolments in other non-government schools (per ANR 2000) gives an estimated 2004 enrolment of 196 706 (Primary) and 244 339 (Secondary).
• multiplying these figures by the projected AGSRC for 2004 gives a total projected AGSRC value of $3 215.8 million for a comparable number of students.

Conclusions

• Projected income from all sources over the quadrennium for the Catholic education system will be $18 167 million.
• Projected income from all sources over the quadrennium for other non-government schools will be $17 883 million.
• The projected total income of the Catholic education system in 2004 ($5 067 m) will be $529 million higher than the projected 2004 AGSRC total of $4 538 million for a comparable number of students, while that of other non-government schools ($4 893 m) will be $355 million higher.
• Thus on current funding trends, the Catholic education system will in 2004 have an estimated total income 11.7 per cent higher than the estimated total cost of educating primary and secondary students in government schools. For other non-government schools, estimated total income will be 7.8 per cent higher.

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