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Research Note 7 1998-99

1998 Electoral Pendulum

Gerard Newman
Statistics Group
24 November 1998

Introduction

The attached table shows the two-party preferred swing required for each seat to change hands based on the results of the 1998 House of Representatives election. The swing to lose (two-party preferred vote less 50%) is shown for all divisions except for Newcastle, where neither of the Coalition parties are contesting the supplementary election.

In three divisions (Blair, Calare and Mayo) the final two-candidate contest at the 1998 election was not between one of the Coalition parties and the Australian Labor Party (ALP). In Blair the final two-candidate contest was between the Liberal Party and One Nation, in Calare between the Independent and the ALP and in Mayo between the Liberal Party and the Australian Democrats. In these divisions the Australian Electoral Commission conducted a further distribution of preferences (a scrutiny for information as allowed for under section 277 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918) to arrive at a Coalition/ALP two-party preferred vote. The division of Calare, although won by the independent Mr Peter Andren at the 1998 election, is shown as a notional Coalition seat on the basis of the scrutiny for information.

Highlights

At the 1998 election the Coalition won 80 seats, the ALP won 67 seats and one seat was won by an independent. For a majority in the House of Representatives the ALP would have to win eight seats from the Coalition. According to the pendulum this means that a uniform swing of only 0.92% is required for the ALP to win government at the next election. This compares with a swing of 4.6% that was required prior to the 1998 election.

Two of the main features of the 1998 election result, namely the ability of the Coalition to win with a small majority a number of marginal seats and the 'wastage' of ALP votes in safe seats, are clearly illustrated in the pendulum.

Nearly half (39 out of 81) of the seats won by the Coalition are considered to be marginal, that is requiring a two-party swing of less than 6% to lose. Of the 39 marginal seats, 10 are held with a margin of less than 1%, including five seats in Queensland. In comparison, a third (22 out of 67) of the seats won by the ALP are considered marginal, and five are held with a margin of less than 1%. The most marginal Coalition seat is the Townsville based division of Herbert (0.10%) while the most marginal ALP seat is the Launceston based division of Bass (0.06%).

At the other end of the pendulum the situation is reversed with the ALP holding more seats that are considered to be safe, requiring a two-party swing of more than 10% to lose, than the Coalition. Over half (36 out of 67, including Newcastle) of the ALP seats are now considered to be safe, with 12 seats held with a margin of over 20%. All of the very safe ALP seats are located in Sydney or Melbourne with the exception of the Wollongong based division of Throsby. Less than 30% of the Coalition seats (23 out of 81) are considered to be in the safe category, and only two seats are held with a margin of more than 20%. The safest ALP seat is the inner Melbourne division of Batman (26.43%) while the safest Coalition seat is the Sydney North Shore division of Bradfield (23.20%).

In an interesting twist the division of Brand held by the Leader of the Opposition (the Hon Kim Beazley) is now considerably safer (12.29%) than the division of Bennelong (6.03%) held by the Prime Minister (the Hon John Howard).This situation is a reverse of the position before the election when Bennelong (10.1%) was a much safer seat than Brand (1.1%).

1998 Electoral Pendulum

LP/NP Seats

Swing to lose

ALP Seats (a)

Swing to lose

%

%

Bradfield (NSW)

23.20

Batman (Vic)

26.43

Murray (Vic)

22.06

Fowler (NSW)

26.33

Mitchell (NSW)

19.85

Gellibrand (Vic)

25.91

Mallee (Vic)

19.37

Throsby (NSW)

22.46

Wakefield (SA)

16.29

Grayndler (NSW)

22.32

Mackellar (NSW)

15.64

Blaxland (NSW)

22.06

Riverina (NSW)

15.30

Maribyrnong (Vic)

22.06

O'Connor (WA)

15.14

Scullin (Vic)

21.84

Farrer (NSW)

14.62

Melbourne (Vic)

21.80

Maranoa (Qld)

14.42

Reid (NSW)

21.64

Barker (SA)

13.74

Wills (Vic)

20.96

Gwydir (NSW)

13.58

Chifley (NSW)

20.89

Berowra (NSW)

13.52

Lalor (Vic)

19.82

Curtin (WA)

13.28

Prospect (NSW)

19.71

Groom (Qld)

13.04

Calwell (Vic)

18.98

Warringah (NSW)

12.98

Cunningham (NSW)

18.20

New England (NSW)

12.93

Watson (NSW)

17.47

Moncrieff (Qld)

12.83

Sydney (NSW)

16.89

North Sydney (NSW)

12.22

Port Adelaide (SA)

16.10

Kooyong (Vic)

11.39

Holt (Vic)

15.11

Kennedy (Qld)

11.19

Fraser (ACT)

14.86

Fisher (Qld)

11.00

Hunter (NSW)

14.69

Indi (Vic)

10.11

Bonython (SA)

14.53

Mayo (SA)

9.90

Denison (Tas)

14.51

Lyne (NSW)

9.72

Hotham (Vic)

13.59

Higgins (Vic)

9.62

Kingsford-Smith (NSW)

13.40

Ryan (Qld)

9.52

Perth (WA)

13.28

Cook (NSW)

8.94

Charlton (NSW)

12.97

Gippsland (Vic)

8.83

Shortland (NSW)

12.81

McPherson (Qld)

8.34

Werriwa (NSW)

12.67

Goldstein (Vic)

8.15

Brand (WA)

12.29

Hume (NSW)

8.06

Corio (Vic)

11.36

Grey (SA)

8.04

Lyons (Tas)

10.61

Blair (Qld)

8.03

Canberra (ACT)

10.06

Fadden (Qld)

7.59

Fremantle (WA)

10.02

Boothby (SA)

7.45

Greenway (NSW)

9.94

Wannon (Vic)

7.44

Barton (NSW)

9.76

Sturt (SA)

7.29

Rankin (Qld)

8.69

Forrest (WA)

6.88

Oxley (Qld)

8.20

Cowper (NSW)

6.36

Burke (Vic)

7.61

Wentworth (NSW)

6.32

Banks (NSW)

7.11

Bennelong (NSW)

6.03

Bruce (Vic)

6.72

Tangney (WA)

5.90

Franklin (Tas)

6.60

Macarthur (NSW)

5.63

Isaacs (Vic)

6.40

Hughes (NSW)

5.52

Jagajaga (Vic)

5.91

Menzies (Vic)

5.40

Melbourne Ports (Vic)

5.83

Pearce (WA)

5.30

Capricornia (Qld)

5.29

Forde (Qld)

5.25

Lowe (NSW)

4.63

Casey (Vic)

4.87

Brisbane (Qld)

4.59

Corangamite (Vic)

4.50

Braddon (Tas)

4.33

Dawson (Qld)

4.42

Cowan (WA)

3.56

Fairfax (Qld)

4.36

Canning (WA)

3.52

Aston (Vic)

4.24

Bendigo (Vic)

3.47

Moore (WA)

4.13

Dobell (NSW)

3.35

Parkes (NSW)

4.11

Bowman (Qld)

3.29

Macquarie (NSW)

4.10

Lilley (Qld)

3.13

Leichhardt (Qld)

4.05

Swan (WA)

2.70

Gilmore (NSW)

4.04

Griffith (Qld)

2.43

Flinders (Vic)

3.72

Chisholm (Vic)

2.07

Calare (NSW) (Ind)

3.21

Paterson (NSW)

1.22

Wide Bay (Qld)

2.86

Stirling (WA)

1.04

Ballarat (Vic)

2.77

McMillan (Vic)

0.57

Page (NSW)

2.36

Northern Territory (NT)

0.57

Kalgoorlie (WA)

2.10

Kingston (SA)

0.47

Dunkley (Vic)

2.04

Dickson (Qld)

0.12

Robertson (NSW)

2.01

Bass (Tas)

0.06

Deakin (Vic)

1.93

Lindsay (NSW)

1.28

Hindmarsh (SA)

1.23

Parramatta (NSW)

1.07

McEwen (Vic)

1.04

La Trobe (Vic)

0.99

Makin (SA)

0.94

Longman (Qld)

0.92

Adelaide (SA)

0.91

Richmond (NSW)

0.77

Petrie (Qld)

0.75

Moreton (Qld)

0.57

Hinkler (Qld)

0.34

Eden-Monaro (NSW)

0.18

Herbert (Qld)

0.10

(a) Excludes the division of Newcastle (NSW) for which the two-party preferred vote is not available.

Source: Australian Electoral Commission

 
 

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