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Main Features:
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Introduction
Section 59 of the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) sets out the conditions for electoral redistributions. Briefly these are:
Passage of Time
Table 1 sets out the dates of the most recent electoral redistributions held in each State and the ACT and the date of the next scheduled redistribution under this provision. A redistribution must commence within 30 days after the expiration of the seven years.
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Table 1 Electoral Redistribution Dates |
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|---|---|---|
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Most Recent |
Next Scheduled |
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New South Wales |
31 January 1992 |
Jan 1999 |
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Victoria |
20 December 1994 |
Dec 2001 |
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Queensland |
10 December 1997 |
Dec 2004 |
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South Australia |
17 January 1992 |
Jan 1999 |
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Western Australia |
6 March 1997 |
Mar 2004 |
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Tasmania |
1 April 1992 |
Apr 1999 |
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Australian Capital Territory |
10 December 1997 |
Dec 2004 |
Under this provision redistributions are required to commence in New South Wales within 30 days after 31 January 1999, in South Australia within 30 days after 17 January 1999 and in Tasmania within 30 days after 1 April 1999.
The redistribution scheduled for Victoria in December 2001 is unlikely to commence till after the next House of Representatives election.
The redistributions scheduled for early 1999 may be delayed [sub-section 59(5)(c) CEA] if the Electoral Commission is of the opinion that the next determination of representation entitlements will or may result in a change in the entitlement of the State. The projected populations in Table 2 suggest that there is unlikely to be any change in the entitlements of New South Wales, South Australia or Tasmania at the next determination and therefore the redistribution should commence on schedule.
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Table 2 Representation Entitlements Based on Projected Population(a) - June 1999 |
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Population Jun 1999 |
Entitlement |
Members |
Change |
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'000 |
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NSW |
6388.5 |
49.97 |
50 |
0 |
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Vic |
4685.7 |
36.65 |
37 |
0 |
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Qld |
3515.7 |
27.50 |
27 |
0 |
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SA |
1490.4 |
11.66 |
12 |
0 |
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WA |
1857.8 |
14.53 |
15 |
+1 |
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Tas |
471.4 |
3.69 |
5 |
0 |
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NT |
196.9 |
1.54 |
2 |
+1 |
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ACT |
313.5 |
2.45 |
2 |
0 |
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Six States |
18409.5 |
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Quota |
127.8 |
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(a) Australian Bureau of Statistics Series II population projection. |
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Equality of Divisions
When drawing electoral boundaries, Redistribution Committees are required (section 66) to ensure that no divisions deviate by more than ten per cent from the average divisional enrolment at the time of the redistribution and that three years and six months after the redistribution, no divisions deviate by more than three and a half per cent from the average divisional enrolment at that time. Given the rather strict deviation criteria, it is unlikely that the equality of divisions provision will trigger a redistribution during the term of the 39th Parliament.
Representation entitlement
During the thirteenth month after the first meeting of a newly elected House of Representatives, the Electoral Commissioner ascertains the population of the States and Territories from the Australian Statistician.
A quota is calculated by dividing the population of the six States by twice the number of Senators from the six States. The entitlement for each State and Territory is then determined by dividing the population of the State or Territory by the quota. The resultant figure is rounded to the nearest whole number. Each original State is guaranteed at least five Members under section 24 of the Australian Constitution.
The first meeting of the House of Representatives elected on 3 October 1998 took place on 10 November. Thus, towards the end of November 1999 the Electoral Commissioner will be required to ascertain the latest population figures from the Australian Statistician.
As there is generally a six-month lag in the availability of population figures, the December 1999 determination will probably be based on June 1999 population figures.
Table 2 shows the representation entitlements of the State and Territories based on projected population estimates for June 1999.
The table shows that Western Australia and the Northern Territory should gain an additional seat in the House of Representatives thus increasing the size of the House to 150. All other States and the Australian Capital Territory will remain unchanged with the possible exception of Queensland where there is some chance of an additional seat.
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Calculation of Entitlements Step 1 Population of 6 States = Quota 2 x number of State Senators Step 2 Population of State = Entitlement Quota The following example calculates Victoria's entitlement based on June 1999 population projections. Step 1 18409500 = 127844 2 x 72 Step 2 4685700 = 36.65 127844 Rounded to the nearest whole number = 37 |
The above calculations are based on Australian Bureau of Statistics Series II population projections(1). The projections assume a medium level of internal migration, a low level of overseas migration and a high fertility rate. Alternative projections (Series I and III) using different assumptions give the same result except for the high internal migration series (Series III) which shows Queensland gaining an additional seat.
Although the above calculations are based on population projections it is doubtful that the actual population estimates available when the determination is made will show a substantially different result.
(1) Population Projections, 1997 to 2051, Australian Bureau of Statistics (Cat. No. 3222.0).
