Background Note
Behind the scenes of the Russia–Georgia conflict
Online only 17 September 2008
Nina Markovic
Foreign Affairs, Defence and Security Section
Contents
Introduction
Overnight on 7 August 2008 the Georgian military launched a
surprise aerial bombardment and ground troop campaign in the breakaway province
of South Ossetia, with the intention of reasserting the Georgian Government’s
authority over the disputed territory. This action followed months of tensions
between South Ossetian independence supporters and Georgian police forces, and between
Russia and Georgia. A series of humanitarian developments, such as the evacuation
of women and children from South Ossetia to North Ossetia on 2 August,
highlighted the tensions.
The Georgian offensive devastated
the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali, effectively ending the country’s
sixteen-year policy of restraint with respect to South Ossetia.[1] Media reports indicate that
hundreds of civilians (out of a population of 70 000) were wounded or
killed in the Georgian attacks, many of whom held Russian citizenship.[2] A UN
Security Council report states that in the Georgian offensive, Russian
peacekeepers deployed in the area were also overrun.[3]
Russia responded with overwhelming military force on 8
August 2008 and the Georgian army withdrew from South Ossetia within days. The
Russian Parliament subsequently recognised the independence of both South
Ossetia and Abkhazia on 25 August 2008.[4] Although the direct hostilities between Russia and Georgia might now be over,
uncertainty remains with regard to Russia’s future role in the Caucasus. The
whole incident has also cast a shadow over the future of Russia’s relations
with the West.
Background to the conflict
In order to understand the current
conflict, it helps to address some of the historical reasons behind the rise in
hostilities between Russia and Georgia in 2008, the effect of Kosovo’s
independence on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, and cooperation between Georgia and
the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Origins of the conflict between the Georgian Government and
the South Ossetian/Abkhazian regional authorities can be traced to the break-up
of the Russian empire in 1918 as well as the Soviet Union in 1991, and the civil
wars that followed. Since the ceasefires of the early
1990s, Russia has acted as guarantor of the de facto autonomy of both South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, although this did not extend to an official recognition
until 25 August 2008.[5]
War in South Ossetia
Modern-day South Ossetia, as well as Georgia proper, was
annexed by the Russian Empire in 1801. The South
Ossetian region became a part of the
Georgian Menshevik Republic with the break-up of the Russian empire in 1918,
while North Ossetia formed a part of the Terek Soviet Republic.[6] This resulted in a civil war in 1918–1922 as the South Ossetians sought
independence from Georgia, which the latter suppressed. The South Ossetian Oblast (province) was organised within the Georgian
republic on 20 April 1922.
In the USSR South Ossetia was an autonomous province within
Georgia. The South Ossetian Popular Front movement was created in 1988 and assumed
political power in 1989.[7] In November 1989, the South Ossetian authorities asked the Government of
Georgia for the status of an ‘autonomous republic’, which Abkhazia already
enjoyed.
The Georgian Government declined this request, furthermore
banning all regional political parties during parliamentary elections in
September 1990.[8] The South Ossetian authorities boycotted the Georgian parliamentary elections
and held their own elections, proclaiming independence from Georgia.[9] In retaliation, on 11 December 1990, the Georgian Government abolished South
Ossetia’s autonomy altogether and declared its independence from the Soviet
Union in April 1991. Later in 1991 a civil war broke out in South Ossetia, resulting
in many casualties and the displacement of tens of thousands of people.[10] A ceasefire was mediated by Russian President Boris Yeltsin. The Sochi Agreement finally ended the conflict on 24 June 1992.[11] Since 1992, the Organization
for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) has agreed to monitor the
ceasefire.[12]
Ten years later, in October 2002, the situation had become
tense again, but Russian President Vladimir Putin and Georgian President Eduard
Shevardnadze managed to come to an agreement, which inter alia addressed
policing along South Ossetia’s porous border.[13] Furthermore, Shevardnadze agreed to extradite five Chechens on Russia’s ‘wanted
list’ following the Moscow theatre hostage crisis of October 2002.
According to a US State Department report,
a change of leadership in Georgia in January 2004 brought to power Mikheil
Saakashvili ‘who expressed a renewed interest in reintegrating Georgia’s
separatist regions’.[14] In May 2004, the Saakashvili Government closed down a large unregulated South Ossetian
market, estimated to be worth $35 million per
year.[15] In response, South Ossetians closed down highways and detained Georgian troops
within South Ossetian borders. The exchanges of mortar fire that ensued
reportedly killed dozens in late July and August 2004.[16]
A ceasefire agreement ended the conflict in August 2004. This
brought international attention to the conflict, as well as securing more
funding in support of permanent peace negotiations in the region.[17] A Joint Control Commission (JCC) and the Joint Peacekeeping Forces group were
established by the OSCE in search of a peaceful settlement to the conflict. The
latter comprised peacekeepers from Georgia, Russia and North Ossetia.
In 2005 South Ossetians rejected the offer of autonomy by
the Saakashvili Government. In November 2006 South Ossetians voted overwhelmingly
for independence in a referendum which the Georgian Government did not
recognise. A simultaneous referendum among the region’s ethnic Georgians voted
to stay within Georgia and in spring 2007 Saakashvili set up a parallel
pro-Georgian government in South Ossetia.[18]
War in Abkhazia
Abkhazia was an autonomous republic within Georgia between
1931 and 1992.[19] In February 1992 Georgia’s ruling Military Council reinstated the pre-Soviet
1921 Constitution. In July 1992, the Abkhaz faction of the republic’s Supreme
Council declared independence from Georgia, triggering a conflict with the
Georgian Government in August 1992. The first substantive negotiations took
place under the auspices of the United Nations in Geneva on 1 December 1993. On
4 April 1994, the Georgian and Abkhazian sides signed a peace agreement in
Moscow. In June 1994, peacekeepers from the Commonwealth of Independent States
(CIS) were deployed along the ceasefire line.[20] In October 2001, violence escalated again. Since then, the situation of ‘no
war, no peace’ has prevailed in Abkhazia.[21]
The rise in hostilities
In the months preceding the recent Russia–Georgia conflict
there were signs of brinkmanship between Russia and Georgia, which increased
the risk of another conflict in the Caucasus.[22] According to an International
Crisis Group report:
Georgia … has mishandled its relationships with Russia, South
Ossetia and Abkhazia since 2004, abandoning real confidence building and often
following confrontational policies towards the conflict regions.[23]
While the exact reasons behind Georgia’s recent military
action in South Ossetia are yet to be determined, some analysts have suggested
that factors such as the private and official military training of the Georgian
army by some Western countries, the prospect of Georgia’s NATO membership; and
an expanded military budget had encouraged the Saakashvili Government to change
Georgia’s policy towards the break-away region.[24]
Outlined below are the key events from February to July
2008, which chart the rise in hostilities between Russia and Georgia.
February 2008
Following Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia
in February 2008, Russia undertook a series of steps to strengthen its
relations with South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This included increased economic aid
to the regions, the recognition of certain businesses and the establishment of
consular services in the southern Russian region of Krasnodar.[25]
March–May 2008
On 4 March, Georgia withdrew from the quadripartite
(Georgia-South Ossetia-North Ossetia-Russia) Joint Control Commission
structure.[26] On 20 April a Georgian unmanned aerial vehicle was downed over Abkhazia ‘by
what UN investigators believe was a Russian MiG-29 or Su-27 combat aircraft’.[27] On 5 May Georgia pulled out of a bilateral air defence cooperation treaty with
Russia.[28] On 6 May, Georgia’s Minister for reintegration, Temur Iakobashvili, stated that
‘Georgia is very close to war with Russia … We literally have to avert war’.[29]
June 2008
In mid–June, clashes occurred in South Ossetia between the
ethnic South Ossetian and Georgian-controlled villages. The exchange of fire
between the South Ossetian and Georgian forces was followed by ‘unclaimed
terrorist bombings within the separatist entity and Abkhazia, its counterpart
in northwest Georgia’.[30] Bombings on 29 and 30 June targeted tourist areas in Abkhazia—usually
frequented by Russian tourists during the summer months.
July 2008
In July, the EU External Relations Commissioner expressed
her support for an international mediation to avert armed conflict between
Georgia and Russia.[31] According to an article from the London
Review of Books, ‘Georgia’s military spending went from $84m in 2004 to
$339m in 2006; in July 2008, the Georgian parliament approved a budget which
raised it to $1bn’.[32] During this month
Georgia also held joint military exercises with the US, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and
Armenia–known as Exercise
Immediate Response 2008.[33]
In response to these developments, Russia increased its
peacekeeping presence in the region. It also sent four combat aircraft to
circle South Ossetia on 8 July to deter Georgian military action in the region,
and, for the first time, publicly announced having done so. Georgia reacted to
Russia’s announcement by recalling its ambassador from Moscow on 10 July.
Georgia also stepped up flights of its aircraft and drones over South Ossetia.[34] Russia then conducted military exercises in the region—Caucasus Frontier
2008—drawing criticism from the Georgian Government.[35] Georgia’s offensive in South Ossetia on 7 August enabled Russia to claim that
it had acted to ‘protect Russian citizens from further Georgian aggression’.[36]
The ‘Kosovo factor’
Kosovo’s declaration of independence from Serbia on 17
February 2008 and its subsequent recognition by many EU states and the US reportedly
gave hope to separatist movements around the world in their quest for
independent statehood.[37] Abkhazia and South Ossetia intensified their calls for the recognition of their
independence by Russia, the United Nations and other international organisations
following Kosovo’s recognition of independence. The leader of Abkhazia, Sergei
Bagapsh, stated on 18 February 2008:
In the near future Abkhazia will
appeal to the Russian parliament and the UN Security Council with a request to recognise
its independence.[38]
The Russian Parliament initially refused to recognise South
Ossetian and Abkhazian independence when the Federation Council discussed the
issue in April 2008, stating that such recognition would contradict Russia’s
peacekeeping role in the region.[39] However, as discussed, Parliament changed its position in late August 2008.
NATO–Georgia cooperation
Georgia’s efforts to attain membership to the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) have been generally perceived by Russia as a direct
threat to its security.[40] The Saakashvili Government has been actively seeking to attain NATO membership
since 2004. At the NATO summit in Bucharest on 2–4 April 2008, Georgia failed
to secure a NATO
Membership Action Plan (MAP)—generally considered to be the final step
before full membership can be considered.[41] However, the country was offered an intensified political engagement with NATO
and the prospect of eventual membership to the organisation. It was reported
that some of NATO’s European members, including Germany and France, blocked Georgia’s
bid for MAP at the Bucharest summit.[42]
On 19 August NATO member states put forward a proposal to
establish a NATO–Georgia Commission to ‘oversee the further development of
relations as well as to follow up on
decisions taken at the 2008 Bucharest Summit concerning Georgia’s membership
aspirations’.[43] On 21 August Russia ceased all military cooperation with NATO.[44] The situation is similar to the temporary halt in their relations during the
NATO bombing campaign against Serbia and Montenegro over the province of Kosovo
in 1999. Furthermore, Russia’s assistance to NATO in relation to operations in
Afghanistan, and NATO–Russia
counter-terrorism cooperation might be affected if the dialogue between
NATO and Russia is not re-established.[45]
Mediation efforts
The OSCE has been promoting
a peaceful solution to the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia since the
civil wars of the early 1990s. Prior to Russia’s recent involvement in the
conflict with Georgia over South Ossetia, OSCE member states have had a 200-member
mission of unarmed military observers in Georgia.[46] The Permanent Council of OSCE decided in August 2008 to increase the mission in
Georgia by up to another
100 observers in support of the French-brokered peace plan.[47] On 26 August the OSCE condemned
Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence.[48]
The OSCE and the EU, currently under French Presidency, have
been investing significant resources to mediate the conflict. The OSCE
Chairman-in-Office, Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb, flew to Moscow in
an effort to stop the further escalation of violence in the region. France
engaged in ‘shuttle diplomacy’ between Moscow and Tbilisi at the highest
diplomatic level, and under the auspices of the EU eventually brokered a
Six-Point Peace Plan on 12 August, which was subsequently signed by both Russia
and Georgia a few days later.
Consequences of the conflict
The
confrontation between Russia and Georgia from 8 to 12 August 2008 ended with Georgia’s
military defeat and Russian military advances deep into Georgia’s territory. This
is unsurprising given the vast differences in size between the armies of these two
countries.[49] Georgia officially cut diplomatic relations with Russia on 3 September, which
was reciprocated by Russia on 4 September.
Amnesty
International and Human
Rights Watch have accused both sides of committing abuses against the
civilian population.[50] In particular, these organisations have questioned the role of Russian and
Georgian–backed armed militia groups in the conflict. Furthermore, it has been reported
that the International Criminal Court is analysing evidence of alleged crimes
in Georgia.[51] On 5 September members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) condemned Georgia’s actions in South Ossetia, stating their support for Russia’s role in
the conflict.[52] On 8 September Georgia applied to the International Court of Justice in The
Hague for interim protection against Russia.[53] Georgia pulled out of the Commonwealth of Independent States on 12 August.
The
Norwegian Refugee Council estimates that the conflict caused the
displacement of more than 100 000 people.[54] On 12 September the UN refugee agency—UNHCR—published updated figures on the
number of people internally displaced by the conflict in South Ossetia. The
agency reported that a total of 192 000 people were forced to flee their homes.[55] The conflict has also had negative repercussions for investor confidence in the
region, reflected in the fall of share prices at the Russian and Georgian stock
exchanges in August 2008.[56]
US–Russia relations
Relations between the US and Russia suffered a major setback
following the conflict over South Ossetia. Poland’s decision to sign a missile defence deal with the US on 15 August, which Russia opposes, could not have helped the
situation.[57] Russian President Dmitri Medvedev said in a Joint
Press Conference with the German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the US
anti–ballistic missile defence is directed against the Russian Federation and
not rogue states.[58]
On 27 August the US, Germany, France, Japan, the UK, Canada
and Italy issued a joint
statement in which they condemned Russia’s actions in Georgia, and called for
a ‘peaceful, durable solution to the conflict’.[59] Furthermore, the US President George W. Bush said that
Russia’s bid to join global economic institutions, such as the World Trade
Organization (WTO), might suffer as a result of its actions in Georgia.[60]
The presence of US and Russian warships in the Black Sea also
increased tensions between the two countries. However, both parties have
indicated they do not want another Cold War. Republican Presidential candidate,
Senator John McCain, said in his acceptance speech at the Republican Party Convention
on 4 September:
As President, I will work to establish good relations with
Russia so we need not fear a return of the Cold War.[61]
The Democratic Party Presidential candidate, Senator Barack
Obama, has urged both Russia and Georgia to seek a peaceful resolution to the
conflict.[62] Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin ruled out the possibility of a new Cold
War, but accused the US of arming Georgia and not doing enough to restrain the
Saakashvili Government.[63] In an interview
with CNN on 29 August he reiterated this position, and said that the
alleged US involvement in the conflict was driven by US domestic politics.[64]
On 8 September Russia announced it will
conduct joint military exercises with Venezuela in the Caribbean between 10 and
14 November.[65] On the same day the US Government removed the US–Russia
civilian nuclear cooperation agreement (the so-called 123 Agreement) from
consideration by Congress.[66] US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated that
‘given the current environment, the time is not right for this agreement’.[67] Moreover, the conflict has resulted in both governments cancelling joint
counter-terrorism exercises scheduled for August/September 2008.
US–Georgia relations
The US is Georgia’s closest ally and the largest foreign
investor in the country. Since 1991, the US has provided Georgia with US$1.7
billion in assistance.[68] Georgia’s troop contributions to the US–led Coalition in Iraq further strengthened
their relations. Following the Russia–Georgia conflict, the Bush Administration
pledged US$1.2 billion in assistance to Georgia over the coming years for reconstruction
and economic development. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice stated:
These resources are in addition to U.S. assistance already
being provided to Georgia under existing programs, and they will be
complemented by expanded efforts to promote more trade and more investment in
Georgia.[69]
The International Monetary Fund has pledged in principle another US$750
million for reconstruction efforts in Georgia.[70] Media
reports stated that the US Government indicated it will consider providing
Georgia with additional military assistance in the near future.[71] In response, Russia has called for an arms embargo
against Georgia in the UN Security Council.[72]
UN Security Council
The conflict between Russia and Georgia has had negative
consequences for international cooperation in the UN Security Council. It has created
divisions between the UN Security Council’s member states, in particular Russia
and the US. It has also diverted the Council’s attention from other pressing issues,
such as the humanitarian emergency in Darfur in Sudan, and the issue of the Iranian uranium
enrichment programme.[73] The UNSC remains deadlocked on the issue of the Russia–Georgia conflict.[74]
The EU position
The conflict in the Caucasus has also created divisions in
the EU over how to deal with Russia—a key energy supplier to the EU.[75] Some EU member states, led by France and Germany, have pushed for a diplomatic solution
to the situation in Georgia. Others, including Poland, Italy, Sweden and the UK,
have advocated a stronger stance against Russia.
Despite these divisions, the EU as a bloc has now managed to
secure a common position with regard to the conflict. [76] On 1 September 2008 an Extraordinary European Council meeting was convened on
the situation in Georgia. At this meeting, the Council condemned Russia’s
recognition of independence for Abkhazia and South Ossetia.[77] Furthermore, the Council expressed full support for the French-brokered peace
agreement and appointed an EU Special Representative for the crisis in Georgia.
The European Commission has provided €6 million in humanitarian aid to the
region,[78] and the EU has proposed convening a Special Georgia
Donor’s Conference to raise money for Georgia’s reconstruction.[79] The EU Foreign Ministers have also called for an inquiry into the Russia–Georgia
conflict.[80]
The EU–Russia summit which was scheduled for 14 November in
Nice, is now likely to be delayed as a result of the conflict. The next round of talks on the EU–Russia
Partnership Agreement will be postponed until
troops have withdrawn to the positions held prior to 7 August.[81] On 9 September EU High
Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP), Javier Solana, strongly
condemned Russia’s decision to establish diplomatic relations with Abkhazia
and South Ossetia.[82]
Australia’s position
The Georgian Government asked other countries, including
Australia, for military assistance during the conflict with Russia. The
Australian Government declined, but has, however, pledged humanitarian
assistance of $1
million to the international agencies operating on the ground in Georgia.[83] The Australian Government has also expressed support for Georgia’s territorial
integrity, and has continued to advocate a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
What does the future hold?
The recent conflict in the Caucasus has strained Russia’s
relations with some Western countries. NATO–Russia relations, which have in the
past achieved cooperation on significant issues, such as Afghanistan and
counter-terrorism, have also been affected. Russia’s prospective membership of
the WTO is also now in doubt.
The Russia–Georgia military confrontation has had a
significant impact on Georgia’s political and strategic outlook and that of the
immediate region. It has contributed to the increase of Russia’s influence in
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Long-term impacts of the conflict are still to be assessed.
In order to honour the provisions of the peace agreement, it
is important that the EU military observers are deployed in the region by 1
October and Russian troops withdraw from Georgia by mid-October. Efforts by
third parties to reinvoke confidence-building measures between Russia and
Georgia might be needed to address their differences. Upcoming international
talks in Geneva on the conflict—scheduled for 15
October 2008—could be the platform for such an action.[84]
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