|
Road Accident Casualties
Geoff Winter
Social Policy Group
Research Note Number 2 of January 1995 showed that deaths from road
accidents had declined in recent years in Australia. Figures in recent
editions of the Human Development Report published for the United Nations
Development Programme have also indicated that total casualties from road
accidents have declined significantly over a similar period, to the point
where by 1990-91 Australia appeared to have the lowest injury rate from
road accidents of all highly developed countries in the world. While the
basis for this claim is somewhat weak because of the method of calculation,
Table 1 shows that there is no doubt that the rate of 'improvement' in
road accident casualties in Australia is certainly one of the best in
the world.
Table 1. Hospitalisations Resulting From Road Accidents
--------------------------------------------------------
Country 1993(a) Change: 1989 to 1993(b)
--------------------------------------------------------
Australia 122.3 -38.7
Denmark 89.9 -32.5
Luxembourg 114.4 -29.8
Canada 82.7 -27.7
Belgium 145.3 -26.9
Ireland 94.3 -26.3
West Germany 139.1 -25.6
Netherlands 75.9 -21.6
New Zealand 195.9 -21.0
--------------------------------------------------------
(a) Persons admitted to hospital because of road accidents
per 100 000 population.
(b) Percentage change in persons admitted to hospital because
of road accidents per 100 000 population from 1989 to 1993.
Source: Federal Office of Road Safety.
Whilst the figures in Table 1 may have been influenced by the timing
of the introduction of provisions such as seat-belt wearing (SBW), blood-alcohol
content (BAC) and random breath-testing (RBT) laws, these regulations
were already in place in Australia before the reference period in this
table. In Australia relevant SBW laws were introduced in 1970-72, BAC
laws in 1966-74 and RBT laws in 1976-86. Thus the improvement could indicate
the continuing 'educative' advantages arising from the imposition and
enforcement of these regulations.
Table 2 shows that similar changes have occurred, over a longer period,
in the rates of death resulting from road accidents. Again, using the
same measure, rate per 100 000 population, Australia has had the best
record of improvement amongst the countries shown: a reduction of 39.8%
compared with the next best country, the UK, at 35.6%. As ratios of hospitalisations
to deaths tend not to change very much over time, it is likely that the
Australian rate of reduction in the road toll therefore was the best in
the world over this period despite, again, SBW, BAC and most RBT laws
having been introduced before 1984 - the trade-off between a lower road
toll and fewer restrictions on freedom other countries may (re)consider.
Table 2. Road Accident Fatalities Per 100 000 Population - Selected Countries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New West
Year Australia USA UK Canada Zealand Japan Sweden Germany
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1984 18.1 18.7 10.1 16.3 20.3 7.7 9.6 16.7
1985 18.6 18.3 9.4 17.2 22.6 7.7 9.7 13.7
1986 17.9 19.4 9.9 15.9 23.1 7.7 10.1 14.6
1987 17.0 19.0 9.4 16.7 23.8 7.6 9.4 13.0
1988 17.5 19.8 9.2 16.0 21.7 8.4 9.6 13.4
1989 16.7 18.4 9.7 16.2 22.5 9.0 10.6 12.9
1990 13.7 17.9 9.4 15.0 21.4 9.1 9.0 12.6
1991 12.2 16.6 8.2 13.7 18.8 9.0 8.6 (a)14.1
1992 11.3 15.4 7.6 12.3 18.5 9.2 8.7 (a)13.2
1993 11.3 15.6 6.7 12.3 17.1 8.8 7.2 (a)12.3
1994 10.9 n.y.a. 6.5 11.1 16.2 8.6 6.7 (a)12.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(a) United Germany.
n.y.a. not yet available.
Source: Federal Office of Road Safety.
Table 3. Road Accident Fatalities Per 10 000 Registered Vehicles
- Selected Countries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New West
Year Australia USA UK Canada Zealand Japan Sweden Germany
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1984 3.2 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.4 1.4 2.4 3.8
1985 3.2 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.7 1.4 1.9 2.8
1986 3.2 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.7 1.3 2.4 3.0
1987 3.0 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.7 1.3 2.4 3.0
1988 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.5 3.4 1.4 2.2 2.5
1989 2.9 2.4 2.3 2.5 3.4 1.5 2.3 2.4
1990 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.3 3.1 1.4 1.9 2.2
1991 2.1 2.1 1.9 2.1 2.9 1.4 1.9 (a)2.6
1992 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.9 1.4 1.9 (a)2.4
1993 1.9 2.0 1.3 2.0 2.7 1.3 1.6 (a)2.2
1994 1.9 n.y.a. 1.4 1.8 2.5 1.6 1.5 (a)2.1
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(a) United Germany.
n.y.a. not yet available.
Source: Federal Office of Road Safety.
Table 4. Road Accident Fatalities Per 100 Million Vehicle Kilometres Travelled
- Selected Countries
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
New West
Year Australia USA UK Canada Zealand Japan Sweden Germany
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1982 2.6 1.7 2.3 2.3 2.9 2.3 1.8 3.4
1985 2.1 1.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 2.2 1.7 2.3
1988 1.9 1.5 1.3 n.a. n.a. 1.8 1.5 1.9
1991 1.4 1.2 1.1 n.a. n.a. 1.7 n.a. 1.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
n.a. not available.
Source: Federal Office of Road Safety.
On each of the standard measures of road accident fatality rates shown
in Tables 2-4, the Australian situation has improved significantly in
recent years. However, these figures also show a similar trend in most
other countries. The rates of improvement shown in Tables 3 and 4 are
not as good for Australia relative to some other countries in the tables
compared to the rates reflected in Tables 1 and 2. This may be because
of the variations in the quality of the road surfaces, the safety standards
required for vehicles and drivers' skills. Economic conditions are also
believed to affect the rate of accidents in any particular country: when
there is a downturn or recession the amount of private or personal driving
has been shown to decline so there is less 'opportunity' for accidents.
It is generally accepted that the type of road system
has perhaps a more significant bearing on accident, and therefore on hospitalisation
and on death, rates. The evidence shows that the more 'open' the road
system the more likely it is that there will be serious accidents. Thus
physically small countries with high population densities (and more comprehensive
public transport systems), such as the UK, Belgium and the Netherlands,
are more likely to have the lowest rates of (serious) accidents, because
journeys are predominantly shorter and at slower speeds; physically larger
countries with high population densities, such as Germany and Sweden are
more likely to have higher rates and physically large countries with lower
population densities, such as Canada and Australia are likely to have
the highest rates, because on average journeys are much longer and at
higher and therefore more dangerous speeds. On this basis the Australian
record is better than would be expected.
|
