Grey Robertson, Statistics and Mapping
Key issue
Australia’s population growth slowed in 2020–21 due to policy and behaviour changes triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic and this may have affected the age and regional distribution of the Australian resident population. These changes may in turn affect local labour and housing markets, as well as current and future service delivery.
An understanding of the size and structure of Australia’s
regional populations and their growth trends is essential to managing the current,
and planning the future, delivery of infrastructure and services.
The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted previous population
growth trends and seen changes to population flows. In the 2020–21 data, the long-term
trend of more overseas arrivals than departures reversed, and the flows of people
moving to capital cities from other parts of Australia also changed. The COVID-19
related changes to population flows outlined here may be short lived or may mark
the beginning of new trends.
The Australian Census of Population and Housing (the Census)
is the primary source for Australian population figures. Between each Census, Australia’s
population is estimated each quarter, by adding natural increase (births
minus deaths) and net
overseas migration (NOM). Regional population estimates are less frequent
and include estimates of internal migration within Australia.
Net
overseas migration (NOM) has been the major contributor to Australia’s
annual population growth since 2006–07. The change in NOM to more departures
than arrivals slowed Australia’s
population growth in 2020–21, particularly in locations favoured by
overseas migrants such as Sydney, Melbourne and Perth.
According to March
2020 to March 2021 data, COVID-19 may have also affected where people chose
to live and move to within Australia. Specifically, changes to international
and domestic migration flows may have changed the structure of the population at
the small region or Commonwealth electorate level without noticeably affecting
the Australian population overall. The release of Census 2021 data will assist
in making data comparisons more reliable and changes easier to identify.
Recent trends in population growth
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) reports Australian
population
growth in the 12 months to June 2021 was entirely due to natural increase
adding 134,800 people, while NOM was a loss of 88,800 people.
Table 1 Population change, summary –states
and territories year ending June 2021
|
NSW |
Victoria |
Queensland |
South Australia |
Western Australia |
Tasmania |
Northern Territory |
ACT |
Australia |
| Estimated Resident
Population (ERP) |
8,189,266 |
6,649,159 |
5,221,170 |
1,773,243 |
2,681,633 |
541,479 |
246,338 |
432,266 |
25,739,256 |
| Growth |
22,242 |
-44,699 |
45,925 |
2,966 |
17,421 |
943 |
103 |
1,053 |
45,989 |
| Growth Rate (%) |
0.27 |
-0.67 |
0.89 |
0.17 |
0.65 |
0.17 |
0.04 |
0.24 |
0.18 |
| Components of
Population Change |
| Births |
97,728 |
70,654 |
61,381 |
19,312 |
33,772 |
5,867 |
3,790 |
5,420 |
297,954 |
| Deaths |
53,339 |
40,965 |
32,029 |
13,772 |
15,302 |
4,529 |
1,145 |
2,102 |
163,202 |
| Natural Increase |
44,389 |
29,689 |
29,352 |
5,540 |
18,470 |
1,338 |
2,645 |
3,318 |
134,752 |
| Net Interstate
Migration |
-16,676 |
-18,300 |
30,939 |
704 |
4,592 |
49 |
-2,159 |
851 |
NA |
| Net Overseas Migration |
-5,471 |
-56,088 |
-14,366 |
-3,278 |
-5,641 |
-444 |
-383 |
-3,116 |
-88,763 |
Note: Australia includes Other Territories comprising Jervis Bay
Territory, Christmas Island, the Cocos (Keeling) Islands and Norfolk Island
Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) National, State and
Territory Population June 2021 (Canberra: ABS, 2021)
Table 1 shows Victoria’s population decreased in 2020–21 due
to reduced internal and overseas migration. The Centre for Population also notes in the 12 months to June 2021, Sydney,
Melbourne, Hobart and Darwin experienced negative population growth. The combined capital cities population
declined (slightly) for the first time on record.
Overall, this was driven by a large net
outflow of 85,000 overseas migrants from capital cities as well as increased
internal migration from capital cities to regional areas. Natural increase
(births less deaths) was largely unchanged from the previous year.
The latest quarterly data available shows that in addition
to Victoria, the NT and ACT populations have declined from September 2020 to September
2021.
Overseas migration by
region
For 6 straight quarters (1 April 2020 to 30 September
2021) Australia
had more overseas departures than arrivals, due to the international
migration and quarantine policies in response to COVID-19. The median
age of overseas arrivals has also increased. This may
reflect a higher proportion of returning Australians and fewer
international students. International student arrivals are starting
to recover as at March 2022, but are still 60% lower than at March 2019.
These changed migration flows may have a small effect on the
population age structure in locations featuring high numbers of students and young
people moving for work. As at June
2020, people aged 20 to 49 years made up 44% of the combined capital city
population, compared with 36% elsewhere.
According to the ABS 29.1% of Australia's 2021 population was born overseas, a decrease from 29.8% in 2020. In the 2016 Census more
than 30% of WA, Victoria and NSW residents were born overseas, and so are more likely
to be affected by overseas migration flows than other states and territories. All
capital cities had more overseas migrants leaving than arriving in the year
ending June 2021 (see Figure 1). Outside
of greater Sydney, NSW experienced more arrivals from overseas than
departures in 2020–21, most likely comprising returning Australians.
Figure 1 Capital cities population growth and components of population change 2019 and 2021
Source: ABS Regional
Population 2020–21 (Canberra: ABS, 2022) Regional
Population 2018–19 (2020).
Internal migration
Other than Brisbane, Perth and Canberra, Australia’s capital
cities had negative internal migration in 2021 (Figure 1).
According to the Centre for Population analysis,
in every state except WA non-capital city population growth overtook capital
city growth. Outside of Greater Sydney and Melbourne, NSW and Victoria’s
increased internal migration offset the decreases in overseas migration. The Centre
for Population analysis notes the number of capital city residents moving to
rest-of-state regions in the year to March 2021 was higher than before the
onset of COVID-19 (244,000 departures compared with 230,000 in March 2020) and net
migration from cities to rest of states was 44,700 people. Victoria outside of
Melbourne overtook Queensland as the fastest growing rest of state region. Queensland
regions (particularly the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast) no longer received
high levels of overseas migration although these regions still experienced
population growth. Provisional regional internal migration estimates (Figure 2) show that after many years of either similar
or greater numbers of arrivals, from March 2020 to March 2021 net internal
migration to Melbourne had approximately 8,000 more quarterly departures than
arrivals.
Perth and Brisbane have seen an increase in internal
arrivals over departures from March 2020 although this may have peaked in
Brisbane in December 2020. Since 2013, Brisbane has a longer-term trend of more
residents arriving from elsewhere in Australia than leaving Brisbane.
Figure 2 Net internal migration 2001–2021; capital cities with the largest net
internal migration flows in 2021
Note: Regional
internal migration estimates, provisional March 2021 – is a special release
from the ABS, funded by the Centre for Population. This release provides
quarterly regional internal migration estimates at both the state and Greater
Capital City Statistical Area (GSSCA) level. Medicare
address updates are used to track internal migration, the ABS June 2021 quarter
of Provisional Regional Internal
Migration Estimates,
has been cancelled due to potential effects of the COVID-19 vaccination rollout
on address updates. Issues with Medicare address for
the June 2021 and September 2021 quarters are being explored before later
estimates can be released.
Source: ABS Regional Internal Migration Estimates,
pPovisional March 2021 (Canberra: ABS, 2021)
Figure 3 allows the comparison of changes in internal
migration origins and destinations for the 4 capital cities which
experienced the largest internal migration flows between March 2020 and March 2021.
Figure 3 Arrivals and departures by capital city and rest of state for Sydney,
Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth, March 2020 and March 2021 quarters
Source: ABS Regional
Internal Migration Estimates, Provisional March 2021 (Canberra: ABS, 2021)
The Centre for Population’s
analysis of ABS Regional Population data compares
capital city with non-capital city population change. The analysis includes a map
of Melbourne population change from June 2020 to June 2021, showing growth in outer
Melbourne.
The Regional population, Australia, 2020–21 analysis notes:
Three of the fastest growing small areas
(SA4s) in Australia were in regional areas close to the east coast capital
cities. Geelong in Victoria was the second fastest growing SA4, growing at 2.1
per cent in 2020–21, behind only Ipswich in Queensland. The Hunter Valley in
New South Wales (2.1 per cent) and the Sunshine Coast in Queensland (1.9 per
cent) followed in third and fourth place. (p. 5)
Recent shifts do not appear to have affected regional
or remote Australia population distributions,
as the shift is from capital cities to other major cities.
These growth patterns away from capital cities are reflected
in Commonwealth electorate population changes. Outer Melbourne and regional
Victorian electorates are among those with the greatest increase, while inner
city Melbourne electorates and the electorate of Sydney have seen the greatest
population decreases.
Table 3 Commonwealth Electoral Divisions
(CED) with the largest population changes 2020–2021
| State |
Commonwealth Electoral
Division (CED) |
Change
2020-2021 |
| |
|
no. |
% |
| 10 CED with the greatest
proportional increase |
| Vic |
Corangamite |
6104 |
4.3 |
| Vic |
McEwen |
5862 |
3.7 |
| Vic |
La Trobe |
5425 |
3.4 |
| NSW |
Macarthur |
6302 |
3.2 |
| Qld |
Blair |
5614 |
3.0 |
| NSW |
Paterson |
4727 |
2.8 |
| Qld |
Fisher |
4425 |
2.6 |
| Qld |
Wright |
4664 |
2.6 |
| Qld |
Fadden |
5094 |
2.6 |
| Vic |
Lalor |
4811 |
2.5 |
| 10 CED with the
greatest proportional decrease |
| Vic |
Bruce |
-4332 |
-2.3 |
| Vic |
Cooper |
-3991 |
-2.3 |
| NSW |
Sydney |
-6332 |
-2.6 |
| Vic |
Fraser |
-5181 |
-2.7 |
| Vic |
Hotham |
-6311 |
-3.0 |
| Vic |
Chisholm |
-6170 |
-3.1 |
| Vic |
Higgins |
-5680 |
-3.3 |
| Vic |
Kooyong |
-6418 |
-3.6 |
| Vic |
Macnamara |
-6999 |
-3.7 |
| Vic |
Melbourne |
-15065 |
-6.3 |
| |
TOTAL AUSTRALIA |
44875 |
0.2 |
Source: ABS Regional Population - Estimated
Resident Population, Commonwealth Electoral Divisions (ASGS 2021),
(Canberra: ABS, 2022).
Future population changes
The Centre for Population –national population
projections
account for the impact of COVID-19 on overseas migration and
include upside and downside NOM scenarios detailed in the 2021 Population statement. Projections
of population changes in capital cities and rest-of-state areas are also
available.
Capital cities are forecast
to return to higher growth rates than rest-of-state areas from 2022–23, as
restrictions are relaxed and overseas migration returns. Melbourne is projected
to be the fastest growing capital city from 2023–24 onwards, overtaking Sydney
to become the nation’s largest city in 2029–30 at just over 5.9 million people.
The projections appear to assume that from 2024 Melbourne will have a small but
gradually increasing net loss of people from internal migration flows, while Sydney
will continue its long-term trend of a more substantial internal migration flow
away from the city.
Unfortunately, data is not yet available to gauge the impact
of recent changes to migration flows on population structures specifically
within smaller regions or at the electorate level. The Estimated Resident
Population (ERP) for 2021 by region and internal migration estimates are likely
to be revised using data from the 2021 Census.
Accordingly, the 2021 Census results when they become
available should provide a better understanding of how COVID-19 related
experiences may have affected where people chose to live within Australia.
Further reading
The Australian Government Centre for Population seeks to be the focal point for expertise on population issues and to inform population policy through its research publications, data, forecasts, and analysis.
Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (2021) 'Profile of Australia’s Population' (snapshot written by the Centre for Population), Centre for Population, December 2021).
Centre for Population (2021), Population Statement, (Canberra: Centre for Population, December 2021).
For detailed discussion of Australia’s population from 1988–89 to 2018–19, see Centre for Population (2021), Population Statement, Canberra: Centre for Population, December 2020).
ABS Regional Internal Migration Estimates, Provisional March 2021 – a special release from the ABS, funded by the Centre for Population. This release provides quarterly regional internal migration estimates at both the state and Greater Capital City Statistical Area (GSSCA) level.
Australian Government, 2021 Intergenerational Report, (Canberra: June 2021). The 2021 Intergenerational Report projects an outlook for the economy and the Australian Government’s budget over the next 40 years including the potential influences of demographic, technological and other structural trends.
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